WA-2008-Strategic Vision: Gregoire and Rossi in a tight race

[Tender Branson]

If the Election for Governor in 2008 was between the Democrat Christine Gregoire and the Republican, Dino Rossi, whom would you vote for?

Christine Gregoire 47%
Dino Rossi 45%
Undecided 8%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Christine Gregoire's job performance?

Approve 48%
Disapprove 44%
Undecided 8%

Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Washington, aged 18+, and conducted October 5-7, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_101207.htm

[ottermax]

strategic vision....

[Mr.Phips]

Thats a Republican firm. 

[Alcon]

Strategic Vision, partisan and slightly GOP-leaning as it may be, is not a poll I'll be tossing out immediately.

Four points seems reasonable to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gregoire is in much better shape than when this polling firm had Rossi ahead convincingly earlier this year. This is Gregoire's race to lose.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think the gubernatorial results will end up mirroring the Bush-Kerry race in Washington in 2004:

WASHINGTON GOVERNOR -
52% (D) Gregoire
45% (R) Rossi

[Ogre Mage]

Rossi is going to have a much harder time in 2008 compared to 2004.  Gregoire has the advantage of incumbency and she is a Democratic Governor in a Democratic leaning state.  The political environment has become toxic for Republicans.  Probably Rossi will accuse Gregoire of overspending but I suspect she will recast it as important investments in education, health care and the environment.  The local economy has been solid which robs Rossi of his potentially most potent issue and his social views are simply out of step with the majority of Washington voters.  Gregoire will not fail to point that out this time. 

[Torie]

Rossi is going to have a much harder time in 2008 compared to 2004.  Gregoire has the advantage of incumbency and she is a Democratic Governor in a Democratic leaning state.  The political environment has become toxic for Republicans.  Probably Rossi will accuse Gregoire of overspending but I suspect she will recast it as important investments in education, health care and the environment.  The local economy has been solid which robs Rossi of his potentially most potent issue and his social views are simply out of step with the majority of Washington voters.  Gregoire will not fail to point that out this time. 

That must be why Rudy is tied with Hillary in Washington, according to SUSA, if I recall correctly.

[Ogre Mage]

That must be why Rudy is tied with Hillary in Washington, according to SUSA, if I recall correctly.

Using a single Presidential poll to jump to conclusions about trends in a state makes little sense.  But on that subject, Washington has not voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since 1984.  Early in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential campaigns Washington appeared potentially competitive.  The closer we got to November, however, the clearer it became that it just wasn't happening and Bush focused his efforts elsewhere.  Lets see how Rudy holds up against Hillary after they've gone a few rounds campaigning in Washington. 

At the state level, the Democrats have controlled the Governor's mansion from 1984 on.  In the 2006 state legislature races,  the Democratic Party picked up 6 seats in the State Senate and 7 in the State House.  They now have lopsided 32-17 and 63-35 majorities.  The drubbing was so complete that the Dems gained seats in the traditionally Republican areas of Spokane in Eastern Washington and Bellevue-Redmond near Puget Sound.  We also had a U.S. Senate race that year and then-freshman Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) destroyed her opponent 57-40.

Gregoire has many accomplishments which she can tout -- passage of the transportation bill, expanded health insurance for kids, increased public education funding, Puget Sound cleanup plan, brokering a water use agreement for the Columbia River, domestic partner and anti-discrimination bills for gays and lesbians, etc.  The party base will turn out for her. 

[bgwah]

Rossi is expected to announce that he is running tomorrow.

Personally, I believe his best chance at becoming Governor would have been to pull a Nixon. I'm pretty sure he would win if he waited until 2012. As for 2008, Gregoire's approval ratings are relatively good (considering what she started out with). I'm leaning towards predicting Gregoire defeating Rossi by a relatively comfortable margin. If that happens, I suspect it may be the end of Dino Rossi's political ambitions. I hope Gregoire goes after the man for the extremist nut he is--he does not fit in with Washington's politics at all. His dog is even named Dubya!

If I had to guess, I would say that Rob McKenna is a lot more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor.

[CultureKing]

Rossi is expected to announce that he is running tomorrow.

Personally, I believe his best chance at becoming Governor would have been to pull a Nixon. I'm pretty sure he would win if he waited until 2012. As for 2008, Gregoire's approval ratings are relatively good (considering what she started out with). I'm leaning towards predicting Gregoire defeating Rossi by a relatively comfortable margin. If that happens, I suspect it may be the end of Dino Rossi's political ambitions. I hope Gregoire goes after the man for the extremist nut he is--he does not fit in with Washington's politics at all. His dog is even named Dubya!

If I had to guess, I would say that Rob McKenna is a lot more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor.

Yeah, I guess I could see McKenna as governor, he is the kind of Republican that can get elected to that kind of position in Washington (though it may be a long while before he will be able to take the governorship)

[Ogre Mage]

If I had to guess, I would say that Rob McKenna is a lot more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor.

Assuming Gregoire is reelected and then retires after her second term (which is my prediction), there is a strong chance that Rob McKenna will get the Republican nomination for Governor in 2012.  I suspect the WA Republican Party will try to clear the primary field for him.  As the sitting Attorney General he would start in a more formidable position than Rossi who was an obscure state senator.  As for the general election it depends on the political climate at the time, the quality of the individual campaigns and what happens in the Democratic Primary (which may be hotly contested).  He might get lucky.

[Meeker]

Look for Inslee to run for Governor in 2012 or whenever Gregoire decides not to run again. He's had his eye on the office for more than a decade and he's been dolling out money to State Legislative campaigns trying to build up support.

[Ogre Mage]

Look for Inslee to run for Governor in 2012 or whenever Gregoire decides not to run again. He's had his eye on the office for more than a decade and he's been dolling out money to State Legislative campaigns trying to build up support.

Rep. Jay Inslee is one of the names I have heard batted around on the Democratic side also.  He has quite a bit of political experience and would be one of our stronger candidates.  I would seriously consider supporting him in 2012.