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Author Topic: Battleground Final 50-48 Obama  (Read 5972 times)
pepper11
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« on: November 04, 2008, 10:01:24 am »
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Good track record.

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Final-ballot-final-prediction.pdf
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2008, 10:03:00 am »
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We have a thread for these.
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pepper11
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2008, 10:19:39 am »
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You didn't seem to b!tch when the final Gallup poll had TWO separate threads.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2008, 10:44:53 am »
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I think this one tends to lean heavily Republican.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Kalimantan
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2008, 11:01:51 am »
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Wow, they were unbelievably accurate. I'll stress the unbelievably. Within a 10th on both Bush and Kerry's figures? exact on all 3 of Bush, Perot and Clinton, and again on Clinton, Dole and Perot? Why haven't we all been bowing down to them all year.

and glad to see that we win Smiley
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Franzl
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2008, 11:05:29 am »
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Wow, they were unbelievably accurate. I'll stress the unbelievably. Within a 10th on both Bush and Kerry's figures? exact on all 3 of Bush, Perot and Clinton, and again on Clinton, Dole and Perot? Why haven't we all been bowing down to them all year.

and glad to see that we win Smiley

Are those numbers for real?
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ill ind
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2008, 11:11:01 am »
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  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2008, 11:17:23 am »
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Yeah, this is allocation of undecideds.

I lean towards the Tarrance projection.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2008, 11:18:27 am »
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  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004, not Battleground, mainly because the final margin was Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3.  Still, Battleground was quite good in that election, just not as good.  And in truth, that was Ed Goaes's prediction, not Celinda Lake's, who predicted a Kerry victory.

The difference between Ed's numbers and Celinda's numbers in this election have to do with allocation of undecideds.  Celinda thinks they will break evenly, Ed thinks they'll break 4-1 McCain.  We'll see.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2008, 11:20:12 am »
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Yeah, this is allocation of undecideds.

I lean towards the Tarrance projection.

of course you do Smiley
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2008, 11:21:02 am »
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  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004, not Battleground, mainly because the final margin was Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3.  Still, Battleground was quite good in that election, just not as good.  And in truth, that was Ed Goaes's prediction, not Celinda Lake's, who predicted a Kerry victory.

The difference between Ed's numbers and Celinda's numbers in this election have to do with allocation of undecideds.  Celinda thinks they will break evenly, Ed thinks they'll break 4-1 McCain.  We'll see.

are the other numbers really true, how accurate their projections were in 1996 and 1992?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2008, 11:23:00 am »
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You didn't seem to b!tch when the final Gallup poll had TWO separate threads.

There is a difference between the Gallup national and the Gallup tracking poll, chowda head.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2008, 11:24:51 am »
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  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004, not Battleground, mainly because the final margin was Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3.  Still, Battleground was quite good in that election, just not as good.  And in truth, that was Ed Goaes's prediction, not Celinda Lake's, who predicted a Kerry victory.

The difference between Ed's numbers and Celinda's numbers in this election have to do with allocation of undecideds.  Celinda thinks they will break evenly, Ed thinks they'll break 4-1 McCain.  We'll see.

are the other numbers really true, how accurate their projections were in 1996 and 1992?

They were absolutely dead-on in 1992 and 1996.  No one did better in 1992 and only maybe Zogby did better in 1996 (where he got his rep, unfortunately).
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2008, 11:31:02 am »
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Yeah, this is allocation of undecideds.

I lean towards the Tarrance projection.

of course you do Smiley

I've been consistent on this point for the month and a half since I returned to the forum.  I think it's an Obama win but closer than the polls suggest.
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ill ind
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2008, 11:48:21 am »
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Globalizer

FWIW

I agree with you.  OBama win.  No 8 or 10 percent margin of victory.  I feel it will be around 4%.

Ill Ind
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Franzl
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2008, 12:00:04 pm »
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Well...one question then (especially to Sam)

Considering how accurate this poll has been in the past...why the heck have we been paying attention to Rasmussen and Gallup the entire election cycle?

I mean...a win's a win, I guess....so I'm not too worried about that.....but I'm just wondering if you have reason to expect a higher margin than Battleground suggests?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2008, 12:31:29 pm »
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Well...one question then (especially to Sam)

Considering how accurate this poll has been in the past...why the heck have we been paying attention to Rasmussen and Gallup the entire election cycle?

I mean...a win's a win, I guess....so I'm not too worried about that.....but I'm just wondering if you have reason to expect a higher margin than Battleground suggests?

Probably because Battleground stuck to their original weighting the first week and then overhauled it soon afterwards (specifically getting rid of the party ID weights).  Then it started to get kinda bumpy.

In other words, rapid change makes people nervous about the quality.  Understandable.

We believe the other polls because we have been trained to believe that the majority of polls are likely correct, which they probably are.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2008, 04:16:58 pm »
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Well...one question then (especially to Sam)

Considering how accurate this poll has been in the past...why the heck have we been paying attention to Rasmussen and Gallup the entire election cycle?

I mean...a win's a win, I guess....so I'm not too worried about that.....but I'm just wondering if you have reason to expect a higher margin than Battleground suggests?

Rasmussen is solid.  I was inclined to follow Gallup, but it started going all over the place, so I wrote it off.

I'm basically following Rasmussen, Battleground, and TIPP, tho TIPP lost me with their 4:1 break for Obama call on the undecideds.  I keep an eye on the others for trending only.  I keep an eye on Zogby for comedy.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2008, 12:34:34 am »
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  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, they virtually nailed
  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

So, at 51-48, it seems they virtually nailed it. We'll see how much California stretches the gap later, but thats pretty impressive.
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