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Author Topic: BRTD's county map predictions  (Read 16489 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #250 on: November 03, 2008, 01:58:22 am »
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You haven't done Georgia yet, have you?
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« Reply #251 on: November 03, 2008, 02:00:25 am »
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You haven't done Georgia yet, have you?

That's the last one. And it'll have to come between my training and my lit-dropping tomorrow night because I am going to bed.
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« Reply #252 on: November 03, 2008, 02:13:53 am »
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Bravo!
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« Reply #253 on: November 03, 2008, 09:56:28 am »
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I just realized I basically need to finish these off tonight, since tommorow night I'm going to be training for my new position most of the day, and then doing a late night lit drop. So whatever, whine away Phil:



I'm not really convinced that the east-west division will be that marked (though it's possible, certainly it's possible). There's no evidence to suggest that Western Pennsylvania is an especially racist area (that the assertion that it is have been so heavily peddled by hopeful (!) Republic partisans adds... aha...) and I can't really think of any reasons specific to the area (beyond, perhaps, a wider problem with traditional working class areas (which may or may not be confined to the primaries), I mean if Washington falls you'd expect maybe Luzerne to go as well) to explain a swing against Obama there (a low swing would be a different matter). Flipping this around... I'm also not sure quite how much of an appeal Obama has to outer-metropolitan areas.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #254 on: November 03, 2008, 11:43:59 am »
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ill be pleasantly surprised if nueces county and bexar both swing to obama
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« Reply #255 on: November 03, 2008, 07:08:54 pm »
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Here's the first of the two "States that'll be a real bitch to do for reasons other than sheer number of counties" (WV is the other):


*pops in*

Obama might actually do better in NE* NM than you indicated. Call it a hunch**, and treat it accordingly. Tongue Actually, keep an eye on Valencia, Hidalgo, and Luna Counties as well - I think the latter two might swing before Los Alamos does.

*I'm referring to Union, Harding, and Quay Counties, mostly.
**Not based on tons and tons of data, just on the fact that once in a while that area does swing to the Dems, unlike the harder-to-crack SE NM.

*pops out*
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« Reply #256 on: November 03, 2008, 09:22:42 pm »
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Here you go, all 50 states. Though I might revise Florida when I get off litdropping:

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« Reply #257 on: November 03, 2008, 09:33:11 pm »
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Yay!  And that red seatbelt is back!

Funny thing, though, with regard to yard signs.  I've been in this area for work for a few weeks, and in passing through Glascock County (dark blue in that patch of red in east-central GA), I saw many more Obama and Martin signs than anything else, and in Hancock County (dark red just to the west of Glascock), I saw nearly as many McCain signs as Obama signs.  So these yard sign anecdotes are really meaningless as predictors of voting outcomes.
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« Reply #258 on: November 03, 2008, 11:02:43 pm »
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Appleton and Green Bay were tough ones. I decided to trust Beef's judgment:



::heart::

Don't sweat over Brown (Green Bay).  Outagamie (Appleton) will be close, and Winnebago (Oshkosh/Neenah/Menasha) will be closer than close.  I still give them to Obama.

Upper Lake Michigan shore is also difficult to assess.  The rural culture is extremely traditional (I went to high school in rural northeast Wisconsin), but the cities/villages of Manitowoc, Two Rivers, Kewaunee, and Algoma should swing these to Obama.  There are progressive tendencies among a lot of the Catholics and Lutherans, and race isn't an issue at all.  Marinette County is a similar situation.  I decided to give it to McCain.
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« Reply #259 on: November 04, 2008, 01:57:56 am »
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Alright, I revised Florida a bit:

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« Reply #260 on: November 05, 2008, 08:35:14 pm »
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I told you that McCain would win Somerset, MD; Greene, PA; Shoshone, ID; and Wyoming, West Virginia. Tongue

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