Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 24, 2014, 03:21:55 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  Demographic Maps (for election night)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Demographic Maps (for election night)  (Read 2416 times)
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57024
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« on: November 04, 2008, 12:50:21 pm »
Ignore

Thought this might be a good idea.

Poverty]http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=790]Poverty
With Degree]http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=732]With Degree
Men in Managerial Occupations]http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=713]Men in Managerial Occupations

Blacks]http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=683]Blacks
Manufacturing Employment]http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=673]Manufacturing Employment

Various stuff done for the primaries:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=268
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=257
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=334
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=434

And a link to one of the best websites there is on this subject: http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/geo/courses/geo200/HomePage.html

I'll also add a link to my two-thirds-done attempt at county-classification when I've made the colours easier to read and so on.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Bro-mentum
tomm_86
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1175
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2008, 01:01:05 pm »
Ignore

Yay!!!
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57024
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2008, 01:48:16 pm »
Ignore

No, I think I need some sleep now actually. So here it is, confusing colours and all:



It's mostly based around employment patterns of one sort of another, although that's obviously not the case in the South. Shame I didn't get to finish it before the election, but the general patterns are obvious enough anyway, I hope.

Nos da
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14670
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2008, 03:17:25 pm »
Ignore

In an election guide, The Times tells me to pay close attention to Vigo County, IN to see if Obama is scoring with the white working class

I won't be online to watch though Sad. I'm off to an Election Night Bash Grin within moments

Dave
Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
TheGlobalizer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3298
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2008, 04:02:59 pm »
Ignore

Not sure exactly what the colors means, but to describe MD demographics to anyone who cares:

Western MD = Appalachia
Central MD = DC/Philly-style Mid-Atlantic upper-middle class; DC suburbs skew a bit more socially liberal than the rest of the state
Baltimore = >50% black, poor city
Eastern Shore / Southern MD = similar to rural/agricultural upper south (tobacco/corn); think NC/VA, not SC/GA.

Border counties: Western/Central = Frederick + Carroll; Central/Southern = Charles + Calvert; Central/ES = Queen Anne's, Harford.

Outliers: Prince Georges = high black demos; Montgomery = skews affluent + liberal.

Typically Democratic: Baltimore City; Prince Georges; Montgomery (urban + inner suburbs)
Swing: Baltimore County; Howard; Anne Arundel; Charles; Harford (I-95 corridor)
Typically Republican: everywhere else (west, east, south)

Projection: Obama +18 (58/40)
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2008, 04:20:07 pm »
Ignore

Thank you, Al.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32090
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 09:05:45 am »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16806


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2008, 01:12:50 pm »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

Only if by "the same" you mean "increased from 17% to 18% in exit polls which are a dubious measure anyway."

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
« Last Edit: November 05, 2008, 01:15:40 pm by Verily »Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13612


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2008, 01:54:47 pm »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

The difference being the huge margin young voters gave Obama. Turnout overall seems to have fallen though, at least here in California. Or maybe there are just that many early votes out still.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32337


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2008, 04:58:18 pm »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

The difference being the huge margin young voters gave Obama. Turnout overall seems to have fallen though, at least here in California. Or maybe there are just that many early votes out still.

Every 4 years people talk about how Californian turnout has fallen, and then every 4 years it turns out that there are actually another couple of million provisional and absentee ballots.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32090
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2008, 05:04:10 pm »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

Only if by "the same" you mean "increased from 17% to 18% in exit polls which are a dubious measure anyway."

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html


No, I was using Pew's prior numbers:
http://www.pewtrusts.org/news_room_detail.aspx?id=17696
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32090
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2008, 05:20:28 pm »
Ignore

18-29 year old voters looks like they were same percentage of the vote as 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/

The difference being the huge margin young voters gave Obama. Turnout overall seems to have fallen though, at least here in California. Or maybe there are just that many early votes out still.

Every 4 years people talk about how Californian turnout has fallen, and then every 4 years it turns out that there are actually another couple of million provisional and absentee ballots.

It was from exit polls, and it doesn't look like there was a great change this year (possibly a drop due to rounding, but a fractional point).

The one state where we have data, NC, it actually dropped as percentage of the total vote at least in early voting.  2004 was an uptick year in the 18-29 voters.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6927


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2008, 08:29:06 pm »
Ignore

Not sure exactly what the colors means, but to describe MD demographics to anyone who cares:

Western MD = Appalachia
Central MD = DC/Philly-style Mid-Atlantic upper-middle class; DC suburbs skew a bit more socially liberal than the rest of the state
Baltimore = >50% black, poor city
Eastern Shore / Southern MD = similar to rural/agricultural upper south (tobacco/corn); think NC/VA, not SC/GA.

Border counties: Western/Central = Frederick + Carroll; Central/Southern = Charles + Calvert; Central/ES = Queen Anne's, Harford.

Outliers: Prince Georges = high black demos; Montgomery = skews affluent + liberal.

Typically Democratic: Baltimore City; Prince Georges; Montgomery (urban + inner suburbs)
Swing: Baltimore County; Howard; Anne Arundel; Charles; Harford (I-95 corridor)
Typically Republican: everywhere else (west, east, south)

Projection: Obama +18 (58/40)

Very nice and I agree with the exception of Anne Arundel and Harford.  D's still have a party registration advantage in both, but neither are swing counties.  I'd place Hardford and Anne Arundel in the Typically Republican column.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines