Official Election Night 2008 Results Analysis and Discussion Thread...

[Verily]

Anyway, looking at the Presidential numbers, Minnick should be home and dry in ID-01. Most of the remaining results are from Ada County (Boise), which Obama lost only 51-47 and which must be going strongly to Minnick. Some shock results in Virginia: Thelma Drake was definitely supposed to lose in 2006, not this year. MD-01 probably goes to a recount, but Kratovil appears to have pulled it out. Chris Shays has inched closer in the late returns but still looks defeated, giving the Democrats complete control of all New England House districts. (Carol Shea-Porter won reelection fairly comfortably and only ran slightly behind Obama.)

[Tender Branson]

Obama down 3 in OC with 90% in.

[Verily]

California, you amaze me. Obama now leads in San Bernardino County as well. (Note that what applies to Orange County also applies to San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.) Obama's lead in California is now a shocking 61-37.

[cinyc]

96.1% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    104564    48.12%
Begich, Mark    DEM    100968    46.46%

Young, Don E.    REP    111798    51.55%
Berkowitz, Ethan A.    DEM    95187    43.89%


There are supposedly a lot of absentees, but they didn't break much differently from the regular results in the Alaska Republican primary.

What's out:
1 precinct in the Republican Eagle River House District
1 precinct in the marginal Kodiak House District
15 precincts in Alaskan bush districts - 5 each in the Dillingham, Bethel and Nome-centered districts.  These are Democrat leaning, but usually low-voting.

[Sbane]

California, you amaze me. Obama now leads in San Bernardino County as well. (Note that what applies to Orange County also applies to San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.) Obama's lead in California is now a shocking 61-37.

I think your explanation makes a lot of sense. Look at the young voter numbers in california and you have an idea of what happened. Young voters all across socal swang hard left. This is why I always thought Obama would do really well in Ventura, San diego and OC but I never imagined this. I never thought Obama would be close to winning in the IE. Wow just wow. Also the swing in the exurban bay area/northern san joaquin valley was crazy too. Should have seen it coming because of the economy. Also the hispanic vote helped basically everywhere here. Oh and Butte as well. Wow...I called that by the way in one of these threads. Well kinda, I think I said it could only happen if the chico state kids put down their beer bong for one day.

[cinyc]

California, you amaze me. Obama now leads in San Bernardino County as well. (Note that what applies to Orange County also applies to San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.) Obama's lead in California is now a shocking 61-37.

I think your explanation makes a lot of sense. Look at the young voter numbers in california and you have an idea of what happened. Young voters all across socal swang hard left. This is why I always thought Obama would do really well in Ventura, San diego and OC but I never imagined this. I never thought Obama would be close to winning in the IE. Wow just wow. Also the swing in the exurban bay area/northern san joaquin valley was crazy too. Should have seen it coming because of the economy. Also the hispanic vote helped basically everywhere here.

How sure are we that California included absentees in their intial tally?  That might explain why some counties are below their 2004 vote totals.

[Хahar 🤔]

Projection, as of 4:40 AM EST:

Obama/Biden: 365
McCain/Palin: 173

Some of those shades are very interesting. I don't think anyone saw this map coming two months ago. California and Connecticut are currently at D >60, but I put the in the D >50 category based on the locations of the outstanding precincts.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I want to see how good my prediction was, but they went down due to high traffic & I don't feel like squinting to see the little thumbtack in my profile.

[Sbane]

California, you amaze me. Obama now leads in San Bernardino County as well. (Note that what applies to Orange County also applies to San Bernardino and Riverside Counties.) Obama's lead in California is now a shocking 61-37.

I think your explanation makes a lot of sense. Look at the young voter numbers in california and you have an idea of what happened. Young voters all across socal swang hard left. This is why I always thought Obama would do really well in Ventura, San diego and OC but I never imagined this. I never thought Obama would be close to winning in the IE. Wow just wow. Also the swing in the exurban bay area/northern san joaquin valley was crazy too. Should have seen it coming because of the economy. Also the hispanic vote helped basically everywhere here.

How sure are we that California included absentees in their intial tally?  That might explain why some counties are below their 2004 vote totals.

Dude absentees are not going to explain some of these swings we have seen in Socal. OC should be all in soon. They are reporting 100% for prop 8 but they haven't updated the presidents race yet. I guess this race could be within 5 points here. That is incredible.

[Nutmeg]

Projection, as of 4:40 AM EST:

Obama/Biden: 365
McCain/Palin: 173

McCain has pulled ahead in NE-02.

[Хahar 🤔]

Projection, as of 4:40 AM EST:

Obama/Biden: 365
McCain/Palin: 173

McCain has pulled ahead in NE-02.

So he has. It'll certainly be close there.

[Tender Branson]

What amazes me is how badly Obama did in Gallatin County, MT.

He got more than 10.000 votes in the Dem. Primary, but only 8.500 in the General Election.

[emailking]

What amazes me is how badly Obama did in Gallatin County, MT.

He got more than 10.000 votes in the Dem. Primary, but only 8.500 in the General Election.

Perhaps they felt their votes mattered more in the primary? Margins mattered in the primary and the media was still making a big deal out of voting since neither candidates had enough delegates to clinch. 

Of course you can make the argument that their votes tonight mattered more,  but voters are weird.

[cinyc]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

His friend Sarah Palin's coat-tails saved him. Alaska should be kicked out of the United States.

[cinyc]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

His friend Sarah Palin's coat-tails saved him. Alaska should be kicked out of the United States.

Nah.  Stevens should be kicked out of the Senate.  Let Palin name a replacement - perhaps her Lieutenant Governor or maybe even herself.

[Associate Justice PiT]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

His friend Sarah Palin's coat-tails saved him. Alaska should be kicked out of the United States.

Nah.  Stevens should be kicked out of the Senate.  Let Palin name a replacement - perhaps her Lieutenant Governor or maybe even herself.

     That's most likely what will happen. Who will his replacement be, though? Parnell?

[cinyc]

Nailbiter, with 99% in (CNN numbers):

Coleman (Incumbent) 1,207,254 42%
Franken 1,204,908 42%
Barkley 435,732 15%

Some of Duluth is out, according to the SOS tally (which seems to be a little different):      
NORM COLEMAN    1207693   42.05   
AL FRANKEN    1203601   41.91
DEAN BARKLEY    435593   15.17

Things could tighten even more.

[emailking]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

His friend Sarah Palin's coat-tails saved him. Alaska should be kicked out of the United States.

Nah.  Stevens should be kicked out of the Senate.  Let Palin name a replacement - perhaps her Lieutenant Governor or maybe even herself.

     That's most likely what will happen. Who will his replacement be, though? Parnell?

Alaska changed their procedure on this after Murkowski appointed his daughter. A special election would fill the vacancy.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9900E3DD1430F933A25755C0A9629C8B63

At least any appointment by her lasts at most 90 days.

[patrick1]

Re Alaska; Palin does not name a replacement. There would have to be a special election.

[cinyc]

99.3% in in Alaska:
Stevens, Ted    REP    106351    48.06%
Begich, Mark    DEM    102998    46.54%

What's out is one precinct in the Kodiak-centered House District, and 2 in the Nome-centered district.  They're probably small.

Unless the absentees break overwhelmingly for Begich, Stevens should have this.

His friend Sarah Palin's coat-tails saved him. Alaska should be kicked out of the United States.

Nah.  Stevens should be kicked out of the Senate.  Let Palin name a replacement - perhaps her Lieutenant Governor or maybe even herself.

     That's most likely what will happen. Who will his replacement be, though? Parnell?

Alaska changed their procedure on this after Murkowski appointed his daughter. A special election would fill the vacancy.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9900E3DD1430F933A25755C0A9629C8B63

At least any appointment by her lasts at most 90 days.

Thanks.  Whomever is named will likely be the Republican nominee and have a leg up in the race, one would think.

[emailking]

She could run herself I suppose. That's probably the best career move if she wants to be taken seriously in 4 years.

[cinyc]

She could run herself I suppose. That's probably the best career move if she wants to be taken seriously in 4 years.

Debatable.  It gives her experience on a national stage, but also gives her a record that might be viewed as obstructionist if she has to join filibusters.

We are getting a little bit ahead of ourselves - there are supposedly a lot of absentees.  It's possible Stevens still loses.

[cinyc]

With the city of Duluth all in (SOS numbers):
NORM COLEMAN    1209925   42.00   
AL FRANKEN    1208910   41.97
DEAN BARKLEY    436706   15.16   

Coleman + 1,015

I'm checking on what's still out.  One precinct in Hennepin is (RICHFIELD W-3 P-01).

Edit:  Richfield W-3 P-01 is the largest outstanding precinct, with 1,600 registered voters.  In total, the remaining precincts have 4,965 registered voters.  They are in Beltrami (1), Cass (2), Douglas (1),  Hennepin (1), Jackson (2), Murray (1), Nicollet (3) and St. Louis (2) counties. 

St. Louis county (Duluth) has been going heavily Franken.  The two precincts there have 591 registered voters, all in Buhl.  (The other precinct is unorganized with 0 registered voters).

Beltrami has been going Franken +3, Cass (Coleman +10), Douglas (Coleman +16), Hennepin (Franken +14), Jackson (Coleman +7), Murray (Coleman +10), Nicollet (Franken +1), and St. Louis (Franken +22). 

Should be interesting.

[BenNebbich]

best quote of election day:

I might as well get this in before it is too late.

The Latest From Inside McCain HQ
November 04, 2008 11:30 AM ET | James Pethokoukis | Permanent Link | Print

I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win. So add this with the new Battleground poll (Obama +1.9 only) and the rising stock market...

is this aspecial kind of source?