Official Election Night 2008 Results Analysis and Discussion Thread...
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  Official Election Night 2008 Results Analysis and Discussion Thread...
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Author Topic: Official Election Night 2008 Results Analysis and Discussion Thread...  (Read 37987 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #275 on: November 05, 2008, 08:29:28 AM »

Projection, as of 4:40 AM EST:



Obama/Biden: 365
McCain/Palin: 173

Some of those shades are very interesting. I don't think anyone saw this map coming two months ago. California and Connecticut are currently at D >60, but I put the in the D >50 category based on the locations of the outstanding precincts.

Not two months ago, but I'm not surprised compared to what I thought yesterday. I underestimated Obama's national margin by a percentage point or so, but in terms of relationship to national average this is pretty much what I expected.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #276 on: November 06, 2008, 01:25:25 AM »

What amazes me is how badly Obama did in Gallatin County, MT.

He got more than 10.000 votes in the Dem. Primary, but only 8.500 in the General Election.

Perhaps they felt their votes mattered more in the primary? Margins mattered in the primary and the media was still making a big deal out of voting since neither candidates had enough delegates to clinch. 

Of course you can make the argument that their votes tonight mattered more,  but voters are weird.

Cool. Obama finally won Gallatin County with 24.000 to McCain's 22.000, which is weird, because when I looked it up, Gallatin was reporting with 80% and Obama had only 8.000 votes. McCain is now below 50% in MT.
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Nym90
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« Reply #277 on: November 06, 2008, 03:34:27 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2008, 03:39:13 AM by Nym90 »



It isn't.  You are watching the beginning of a roller coaster ride.  It won't be Obama's fault, but it will be happening.

I think people may now disregard most of your prophetic statements as they have, thankfully not bore any fruit tonight.

It isn't.  You are watching the beginning of a roller coaster ride.  It won't be Obama's fault, but it will be happening.

I think people may now disregard most of your prophetic statements as they have, thankfully not bore any fruit tonight.

Oh, I've been saying these things since before I had any idea who I'd be voting for (or who the candidates would be).  I'd be saying the same things had there been two other candidates in this race.  I spoke about the problems prior to the recent economic downturn.

Sorry if you don't like it, but the problems are still there.  

Right now we're facing a recession (global), a resurgent Russia, a terrorist organization bent on destroying us, the Iranian situation, and those are the things marked "urgent."  Saying, "Yes, we can," doesn't answer "How."  (Nor does "Reform" for that matter.)

I think you underestimate how much of our problem is psychological.

Reagan and Roosevelt improved the economy just as much, if not moreso, by the confidence and optimism they gave Americans through their words as opposed to their policies. Obama so far shows signs of being similar, though time will tell. I think he is likely to avoid Clinton's mistakes as he, while supremely confident, is not an arrogant man like Clinton (who, like most arrogant people, used it to cover up his personal feelings of inadequacy which manifested themselves in his martial fidelity...always feeling he must prove himself and seek self affirmation and reassurance wherever possible). He is, I think, nearly the perfect personality balance, confident yet humble, detached enough to be rational in his policy making and inquisitive enough to learn that which he does not know rather than pretending he has critical information that he does not.

Above all, Obama's ability to inspire and bring out the best in us is the one thing that I think most enables him to lead us through this critical and difficult time.

It's easy for policy wonks like us to not see the forest for the trees and think marginal tax rates affect the economy more than true confidence and the health of the human condition.

Not to say that Democratic policies don't do far more for the economy than Republican ones (as past history as shown to be the case) but Obama's effect on his supporters and listeners is a key component of his potential success, and also I'm sure engenders much of the potential hatred of him.
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