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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Philadelphia  (Read 2983 times)
memphis
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« on: November 04, 2008, 11:11:43 PM »

For the record, it's looking like Obama increased the Democratic margin of victory from Kerry here. Not trying to be a jerk about it. Just saying...
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tokar
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2008, 11:33:45 PM »

For the record, it's looking like Obama increased the Democratic margin of victory from Kerry here. Not trying to be a jerk about it. Just saying...

I am not surprised.

I was expecting this to happen.  I figured it would be Obama+60.  Turned out to be Obama+67, @83%.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 12:00:30 AM »

For the record, it's looking like Obama increased the Democratic margin of victory from Kerry here. Not trying to be a jerk about it. Just saying...

Over Kerry, yes.  I'm stunned at the margin in PA, however.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 12:34:08 AM »

Yep, quite an amazing accomplishment. I'm interested to see the ward breakdown.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 01:22:28 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2008, 01:26:56 AM by ICE HOCKEY »

Yep, quite an amazing accomplishment. I'm interested to see the ward breakdown.

www.phillyelectionresults.com

Yes, I am happy that the "black penalty" was quite minimal in the Northeast and not too bad in South Philly.  That said McCain actually won a Ward this time- the 26th in South Philly: McCain 52- Obama 46.  Ok, it was McCain +6, I called McCain +10.  I really overestimated McCain this time.  I said it before- it always seems to look better for us in the end.  Others I called for McCain:


55th- Obama +17.  Not a typo. This Ward is one of only 2 with a GOP majority in registration.
64th- Obama +6
66th- Obama +7.75
63rd- Obama +4.5

My 56th Ward- Obama +19 and my division (precinct) went about the same.  In Fact, in 2004 my division went Kerry +12, giving a 7 point shift towards Obama!  Didn't think that would happen.

I think Montgomery and Delaware Counties also cracked the 60% for the 1st time ever with Chester actually voting for its 1st Democrat since LBJ in 1964!  If anyone has notices, the Obama "guns and religion" comments might have hurt us out Western PA, but we even picked up some counties in the center and held McCain in the 50s in Lancaster!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 02:05:14 PM »

Yep, quite an amazing accomplishment. I'm interested to see the ward breakdown.

www.phillyelectionresults.com

Yes, I am happy that the "black penalty" was quite minimal in the Northeast and not too bad in South Philly.  That said McCain actually won a Ward this time- the 26th in South Philly: McCain 52- Obama 46.  Ok, it was McCain +6, I called McCain +10.  I really overestimated McCain this time.  I said it before- it always seems to look better for us in the end.  Others I called for McCain:


55th- Obama +17.  Not a typo. This Ward is one of only 2 with a GOP majority in registration.
64th- Obama +6
66th- Obama +7.75
63rd- Obama +4.5

My 56th Ward- Obama +19 and my division (precinct) went about the same.  In Fact, in 2004 my division went Kerry +12, giving a 7 point shift towards Obama!  Didn't think that would happen.

Whoa! The Commissioners backed down and decided to put the results online (for free)! Excellent!

Obama destroyed McCain in my ward. It looks like my division wasn't as bad as I thought (I said 55% for Obama but didn't factor in the third party vote. 52% to 46% - identical to the national total, I believe). It's really odd how my division is basically a mirror of the actual results in all of the races. I didn't think we were that much of a bellweather.

McCain did kick ass in the other divisions around me (65 - 1 and 2) and won 65 - 23 by a few points.

Obama winning the 66th the way he did is unreal. Same with the 57th. The 58th was actually kind of close which is weird.

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TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 08:19:14 PM »

Yep, quite an amazing accomplishment. I'm interested to see the ward breakdown.

www.phillyelectionresults.com

Yes, I am happy that the "black penalty" was quite minimal in the Northeast and not too bad in South Philly.  That said McCain actually won a Ward this time- the 26th in South Philly: McCain 52- Obama 46.  Ok, it was McCain +6, I called McCain +10.  I really overestimated McCain this time.  I said it before- it always seems to look better for us in the end.  Others I called for McCain:


55th- Obama +17.  Not a typo. This Ward is one of only 2 with a GOP majority in registration.
64th- Obama +6
66th- Obama +7.75
63rd- Obama +4.5

My 56th Ward- Obama +19 and my division (precinct) went about the same.  In Fact, in 2004 my division went Kerry +12, giving a 7 point shift towards Obama!  Didn't think that would happen.

Whoa! The Commissioners backed down and decided to put the results online (for free)! Excellent!

Obama destroyed McCain in my ward. It looks like my division wasn't as bad as I thought (I said 55% for Obama but didn't factor in the third party vote. 52% to 46% - identical to the national total, I believe). It's really odd how my division is basically a mirror of the actual results in all of the races. I didn't think we were that much of a bellweather.

McCain did kick ass in the other divisions around me (65 - 1 and 2) and won 65 - 23 by a few points.

Obama winning the 66th the way he did is unreal. Same with the 57th. The 58th was actually kind of close which is weird.



I saw the 58th.  Yeah, that's a shock.  I thought that was solid Obama.  That and the northern parts of the 63rd are similar demographically.  I'm curious as to how the Fox Chase divisions did and they looked deep red compared to other areas of the NE from early judgement.

Then again I'm surprised (quite pleasantly) that the 26th and 64th weren't more for McCain.  sh**t I thought the 64th was a sure thing for McCain.  I was unsure of the 55th and 66th.

I know I've harped on this before, BUT I think the Biden selection as VP just might have had enough pull to swing the 64th and 66th to Obama   And this isn't just because I like him- he's been in our media market for a very long time and people have talked about him.  Side note- I think Biden also saved Paul Kanjorski's hide in the 11th as well. 
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