will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[© tweed]

will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[BlueSwan]

Haha, some very early speculation.

I say yes. He has all of the makings of a great president. Admittedly he has a very tough road ahead with the economy, with Iraq, with his election promises, etc. But Americans aren't unrealistic (I hope), they know he's not gonna be able to do everything within a few months. But give him a few years and I'm sure he'll get good results.

Also, if there's one thing he has proven during this campaign, its that he doesn't f**k up.

[MR maverick]

If gas prices continue to stay down.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, insofar as incumbency is a powerful factor in reelection.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I doubt it, considering what he has to contend with in the White House.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I got a great premonition of doom last night watching those celebrations... we might have already seen the high point of his presidency.

Or maybe I'm just a miserable foreign git.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I got a great premonition of doom last night watching those celebrations... we might have already seen the high point of his presidency.

Or maybe I'm just a miserable foreign git.

^^^

[J. J.]

If gas prices continue to stay down.

I think the economy will be a lot of it.  There were also foreign policy crises, namely Russia, Iran and Iraq, two of which are reminiscent of the Carter administration.  Obama, et al., have made the argument that if America is "respected" abroad, it will help.  He has failed to realize that foreign countries act, correctly, in their own best interest. 

I got a great premonition of doom last night watching those celebrations... we might have already seen the high point of his presidency.

Or maybe I'm just a miserable foreign git.

If, a year from now, Obama is still seen as the history making first black president, he has failed.

[Inmate Trump]

It depends.  If he follows through with the whole wealth redistribution thing then he won't win reelection.  Americans, in general, are strongly opposed to that idea.  If the economy is still in shambles in 2012, he will lose since that is pretty much the sole reason he was elected.  If he governs as a 'middle of the road' president like Bill Clinton then he'll probably win very easily.

It also depends on who the Republicans nominate.  My pick is for Sarah Palin, but I'm thinking 2012 may be too soon for her--the media has unfairly tarnished her name for now.  Bobby Jindal is probably the best candidate to pit against Barack but time will tell.

[Storebought]

I have never before looked forward to an election, but I am now.

The Democrats will never dump him in a primary (neither LBJ nor Carter faced that ignominy), and the Republican party is defunct and can't offer a viable alternative. We're stuck with the bastard for the next eight years.

[Eraserhead]

yes

[paul718]

If he goes along with Congress, hammering everything through...No.

If he picks his battles wisely...Yes.

I think that the economy will inevitably improve (though I think we would see a stronger recovery under conservative direction), Iraq is almost wrapped up, and I'm confident Petraeus will turn Afghanistan around.  

I believe Obama has very liberal ideals, but I think he realizes that he's not representing a liberal district or state anymore and understands that America is still a center-right nation.  All he has to do is fight the Congress on a few key issues and he will neutralize any "liberal President" charges he might face in 2012.    

He won't be able to fulfill all of the promises he's made over the last couple of years, but I don't think that will do significant damage.  I greatly underestimated the support this man had across the country (OH, VA, FL, IN, maybe MO, maybe NC!, +6%, +7M votes, my God!).  So failing to follow through with his utopian plans will lose some but not enough to make that much of a difference.  

Finally, when the idea was raised as to who the new leader of the GOP is, the 2 names I heard on TV last night were Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal.  Neither of these 2 would stand a chance against Obama, IMO, but I'm holding out hope this will not be the case.  

So, barring any major events outside of his control, Obama will be difficult to beat.    

[BlueSwan]

The good news for Obama is that he's not blamed for the poor condition of the economy. Had the recession set in just 6 months later, a lot of it would - completely unfairly, of course - have been associated with the new president. This recession is associated with Bush. People realize that Obama won't turn it around in a few months.

So "all" he needs to do is act and to show some improvement within a year and a half, which is fairly realistic.

By 2012 the usual economi cycles would suggest that there's a very good chance that the economy will have gotten substantially better and that would effectively make Obama unbeatable unless he f**ks up majorly on some other issue, which I don't see happening. This guy is a pro.

[Person Man]

This is what I am expecting if Obama does well against a really bad GOP nominee like Jindal, Romney or Palin-

[dead0man]

If he goes along with Congress, hammering everything through...No.

If he picks his battles wisely...Yes.

<snip>

So, barring any major events outside of his control, Obama will be difficult to beat.    

This.  I agree with the middle part too, just left it out to save bandwidth/space.

[paul718]

This is what I am expecting if Obama does well against a really bad GOP nominee like Jindal, Romney or Palin-

Who would you consider to be a "good" GOP nominee?

[Lief 🗽]

Yes.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think it's awfully premature to be talking about this. With all the things going on in the world right now, I've said all along that it will be very tough for this President to get reelected. It just smells of a Jimmy Carter type term before it's over with. Russia is poised to make some noise, Iran is still making nukes, the economic downturn has just begun , etc ...

Obama did make history by having the DOW drop the most it ever has for a day after the election.

[© tweed]

Obama did make history by having the DOW drop the most it ever has for a day after the election.

what an awful President.

[paul718]

I think it's awfully premature to be talking about this. With all the things going on in the world right now, I've said all along that it will be very tough for this President to get reelected. It just smells of a Jimmy Carter type term before it's over with. Russia is poised to make some noise, Iran is still making nukes, the economic downturn has just begun , etc ...

Obama did make history by having the DOW drop the most it ever has for a day after the election.

The market drop-offs have more to do with the poor ADP Report that was released yesterday than Obama being elected.  Any Obamaphobia had already been factored in since he pulled ahead in the polls, IMO.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Where's the "too early to tell" option.  I mean, he has just named his White House CoS today and is just two days into President-Elect status.  Right now, I would have to say no, but that's purely a guess, but based on how big the mess President Bush will leave him to clean up.

I think all Americans should give him a clean slate right now, though.  His choice of CoS being the first mark either good or bad on Obama's slate.  I, for one, am going to start judging him now, before he gets into office, because a smooth transition usually leads to a better start in January, February, and March of the first year (just ask President Clinton).  He, in effect, is already the President of the United States, but with President Bush doing the official governing.

[Mr.Jones]

He will make an awsome president and will finish his second term going high and popular like Bill Clinton. Fear preachers, please step aside, hide in caves and hold onto your guns and religious books.

[Moooooo]

Entirely too many variables to know for sure....

I'll break it down like this for the sake of this poll....

Great first term w/ no major scandals or blowups - Very good odds
Mediocre first term w/ a scandal or 2 - 60/40
Terrible first term w/ multiple scandals and blowups - Virtually 0

[Mr.Phips]

The good news for Obama is that he's not blamed for the poor condition of the economy. Had the recession set in just 6 months later, a lot of it would - completely unfairly, of course - have been associated with the new president. This recession is associated with Bush. People realize that Obama won't turn it around in a few months.

So "all" he needs to do is act and to show some improvement within a year and a half, which is fairly realistic.

By 2012 the usual economi cycles would suggest that there's a very good chance that the economy will have gotten substantially better and that would effectively make Obama unbeatable unless he f**ks up majorly on some other issue, which I don't see happening. This guy is a pro.

He needs to get the economy better by 2010, not 2012.

[dead0man]

The President doesn't control the economy.  It was true during Clinton, it was true during Bush and it will be true for Obama.  That's not say the President doesn't have an effect on the economy, he does and he has, but he can't make it go up or down through Presidential magic.  If the market is due to continue falling (it's not....probably) it will no matter what Obama does.  If the market is due to come back up (it is....probably) it won't matter what Obama does.

Blaming (or praising) the sitting President on how the economy is doing "right now" is what ignorant people do (that includes 98% of the talking heads on the television news).


edit-that's not to say your are ignorant or wrong.  The economy going up during Obama's Presidency will certainly help him get re-elected and provide more ammo for the ignorant ones that happen to favor Obama.