will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[phk]

Call me in 2010.

[Person Man]

This is what I am expecting if Obama does well against a really bad GOP nominee like Jindal, Romney or Palin-

Who would you consider to be a "good" GOP nominee?

Show me a good nominee and I will say that is a good nominee. I'll know it when I see it.

[paul718]

The President doesn't control the economy.  It was true during Clinton, it was true during Bush and it will be true for Obama.  That's not say the President doesn't have an effect on the economy, he does and he has, but he can't make it go up or down through Presidential magic.  If the market is due to continue falling (it's not....probably) it will no matter what Obama does.  If the market is due to come back up (it is....probably) it won't matter what Obama does.

Blaming (or praising) the sitting President on how the economy is doing "right now" is what ignorant people do (that includes 98% of the talking heads on the television news).


edit-that's not to say your are ignorant or wrong.  The economy going up during Obama's Presidency will certainly help him get re-elected and provide more ammo for the ignorant ones that happen to favor Obama.

I agree that the President is never responsible for a "good economy" or a "bad economy" but he CAN hinder any recovery/growth or exacerbate any losses though his policies regarding taxes/money supply/etc.

[Nym90]

History says yes. 1980 was the only election since 1896 in which control of the White House changed parties for a second consecutive election.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Way too early to say.  The best way to tell will be in late 2010/early 2011, and who from the republicans decides to run.  If we see the A listers like Jindal, Pence, Ryan, and Cantor lining up to run, then he will be considered beatable.  If we get Romney, Huckabee, Senator John Doe from wherever, etc then most likely he'll be re-elected

[Platypus]

History says yes. 1980 was the only election since 1896 in which control of the White House changed parties for a second consecutive election.

History also says that three consecutive two-termers is never to be expected.

[J. J.]

Call me in 2010.

Probably the best answer. 

It will depend on several things.

1.  Job performance.  Both the economy and foreign policy.

2.  Can the GOP become a credible alternative.

3.  Any scandals (and there might some from the election).

[cannonia]

will Barack Obama be re-elected?

Yes, he will serve 4 terms like FDR.

[ExplodingClowns]

He will be re-elected without a doubt. There were some site that listed possible candidates for the Republican Party, I can't remember which site though. I really hope Palin doesn't candidate for president, then we're doomed if anything goes wrong.

[Psychic Octopus]

Probably, It looks like the republican party will be in disarray for many more years, Until they find a leader who can lead them out of the wilderness, there screwed.

And no there leader is Not Jindal. Not Palin. Not Giuliani. No Gingrich. Not Romney. Not Huckabee. It's someone we have not heard of yet.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Yes, for now.......

[tmthforu94]

Undecided between #1 & #4

[Jacobtm]

This map gives Obama 278 EVs right now. I'm pretty sure after '10 he'd need to lose at least one of the states on this map to be unseated:

[??????????]

Hard to say. The foreign policy issue is going to be huge in the next six months I suspect. If he falls flat on his face because Dear Leader does something stupid, really stupid, then no, I suspect his numbers will plummet.

[Marokai Backbeat]

This map gives Obama 278 EVs right now. I'm pretty sure after '10 he'd need to lose at least one of the states on this map to be unseated:

I have a feeling he could hold Virginia.

[Rowan]

Ask me in 3 years.

[tmthforu94]

This map gives Obama 278 EVs right now. I'm pretty sure after '10 he'd need to lose at least one of the states on this map to be unseated:

I have a feeling he could hold Virginia.

Yes
I would call Colorado to the GOP before I called Virginia, although both will be close states.

[Stranger in a strange land]

History says yes. 1980 was the only election since 1896 in which control of the White House changed parties for a second consecutive election.

History also says that three consecutive two-termers is never to be expected.

maybe, but consider for example, that in the 28 year span between  1933 and 1961, there were only three presidents: FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower. After that there were two Democratic terms (Kennedy was assassinated) and after that there were two Republican terms (Nixon resigned during his 2nd term).

[pbrower2a]

Hard to say. The foreign policy issue is going to be huge in the next six months I suspect. If he falls flat on his face because Dear Leader does something stupid, really stupid, then no, I suspect his numbers will plummet.

"Dear Leader" is a sobriquet for Kim Jong-il, who has already done some provocative acts. One may quibble whether his deeds are stupid or insane.

Obama might have to cut a deal with China or Russia -- if not both -- in the event of "Dear Leader" doing his real-life "Doctor Strangelove" act.  It's far easier to cut a deal with a political system very different from one's own if one has credibility.

Obama has far more credibility than did his predecessor.

[pbrower2a]

Way too early to say.  The best way to tell will be in late 2010/early 2011, and who from the republicans decides to run.  If we see the A listers like Jindal, Pence, Ryan, and Cantor lining up to run, then he will be considered beatable.  If we get Romney, Huckabee, Senator John Doe from wherever, etc then most likely he'll be re-elected

Huh?

Obama can lose a lot of support that he got in 2008 and still win the 2012 election. If anything he has gained a little since the election.

[YRABNNRM]

Keep in mind that most of these posts were made the day after the election.

[??????????]

"Dear Leader" is a sobriquet for Kim Jong-il,

[Joe Republic]

History says yes. 1980 was the only election since 1896 in which control of the White House changed parties for a second consecutive election.

History also says that three consecutive two-termers is never to be expected.

Jefferson - Madison - Monroe

[Vepres]

I will have an answer, but my psychic abilities have been weakened, and I won't have an answer until October 31, 2012. Then I shall give you my prediction.

[Magic 8-Ball]