Ted Stevens

[MarkWarner08]

According to the state website, there are still 58,000 absentee/provisional/whatever ballots left to be counted. Add that to the 220,000 already counted and you have about 280,000.

That number is much more plausible.

[Smid]

Alaska looks like it's the Republican version of DC.

[Lief 🗽]

According to the state website, there are still 58,000 absentee/provisional/whatever ballots left to be counted. Add that to the 220,000 already counted and you have about 280,000.

That number is much more plausible.

I think what happened is that Ohio was called for Obama at 9:30 or so Eastern time, which would be like 5 (right?) in Alaska, so the Democrats went home, pretty confident that Obama had won and Begich was going to win anyway. The Republicans probably stayed because they worship Sarah. And that's how Alaska re-elected a convicted felon.

[MarkWarner08]

According to the state website, there are still 58,000 absentee/provisional/whatever ballots left to be counted. Add that to the 220,000 already counted and you have about 280,000.

That number is much more plausible.

I think what happened is that Ohio was called for Obama at 9:30 or so Eastern time, which would be like 5 (right?) in Alaska, so the Democrats went home, pretty confident that Obama had won and Begich was going to win anyway. The Republicans probably stayed because they worship Sarah. And that's how Alaska re-elected a convicted felon.

There's no way to know. Did Panhandle voters leave en masse when they heard  from the networks that Gore had won FL? 

In the Alaska case, how would voters on line have learned of this development? If they heard on cell phones, would they just give up their places on line and go home? It seems unlikely that his dissuaded many people from voting.

[bgwah]

Perhaps the conviction helped Stevens. Many Republican-leaning voters realized they'll probably end up with Senator Parnell, a person they would like much more than Begich?

[Ronnie]

McConnell called on Stevens to resign last week after the Alaska senator was convicted on seven federal felony counts. McConnell said there was “zero chance” Stevens wouldn’t be expelled from the Senate if he didn’t resign – but he also made it clear that Stevens would have a chance to appeal his conviction first.

I'm sniffing Palin...

[© tweed]

the Begich Intrade contract is on fire right now and is up to ~35.0.  any explanations for this?  I can't find good news on it easily.

[ChrisFromNJ]

the Begich Intrade contract is on fire right now and is up to ~35.0.  any explanations for this?  I can't find good news on it easily.

Probably because Nate Silver thinks Begich has a chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

[© tweed]

the Begich Intrade contract is on fire right now and is up to ~35.0.  any explanations for this?  I can't find good news on it easily.

Probably because Nate Silver thinks Begich has a chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

that makes it sound almost as if Stevens is done, which I find hard to believe...

[Sam Spade]

the Begich Intrade contract is on fire right now and is up to ~35.0.  any explanations for this?  I can't find good news on it easily.

Probably because Nate Silver thinks Begich has a chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

that makes it sound almost as if Stevens is done, which I find hard to believe...

A few observations:

1. Early balloting almost always runs more Democratic than smae-day balloting in Alaska.  That much is obvious, though as is clear from the vote totals, that won't be enough.

2. Absentee balloting usually runs very slightly more Democratic than same-day balloting in Alaska, but not by that much.

3. Nate is not taking into one key factor mainly because Alaska's election people don't cover it.  We don't know who performed well where.  I can make some guesses based on movement when the results came in and where those results came in, but really, it's a crapshoot.

The answer, according to my guesses, is somewhat counterintuitive.  Basically, Stevens performed strongest in the urban/suburban areas of Alaska (Juneau, Fairbanks, and yes Anchorage) and weakest in the rural areas (especially "the bush").

4. Point 4 connects to Point 3.  Absentee ballots are not evenly distributed.  Nate merely assumes this to be true.  Basically, if a good Stevens area has more absentees percentage-wise than a good Begich area, then the slight Dem trend will not exist and may be countered (or vice versa).  In other words, without knowing the answer to Point 3, we can't intuit Point 4 and certainly make guesses concerning the numbers of the absentees.  The same general idea exists concerning early ballots.

5. There are three additional wildcards here:
1) We don't know when these absentees were sent.  Absentees before the Stevens conviction might be more favorable to him.  Those after might be more negative.  Of course, the voters who sent in absentees may have already decided before-hand.  Basically, we're up a creek without a paddle.
2) Stevens is the most iconic politician in Alaska's history.  I'm willing to bet nearly every Alaska citizen has voted for him once.  Just this factor along may make our predictions about what "should happen" vis-a-vis the numbers useless, because who knows who may choose to vote for him now.
3) The Lt. Governor runs the elections in Alaska.  The Lt. Governor would be the one most likely to succeed Stevens, should well, you know...  Never forget that.

[Mr. Morden]

Latest Intrade odds on the seat:

Stevens 55.0
Begich 50.0

[Sam Spade]

Couple of more points, after having crunched the data...

1) If Begich loses, he has no one to blame but himself.  In the Anchorage HDs that should be favorable to him, the percentage of RVs who will actually vote is below 50% in many places.  Whereas in the suburbs of Anchorage and the GOP growth areas in general (like where Sarah Palin comes from), RV voting percentage will be much closer to 60-70%.  I am sure Stevens did well in these areas too.

#2 is for Mr. Moderate and those who bet Intrade...

2) Use Nate Silver's model, which completely ignores which ballots are out and where they come from, to make money on those Democrats who follow his word slavishly.

15 HDs (out of 40) gave Bush at or greater than his final margin of 61.19%.  This makes out to be 37.50% of Alaska's HDs. 

44.93% of the early/absentee ballots left to be counted come from these 15 HDs.

Even if we include questionable ballots, still 43.57% of all ballots yet to be counted or determined come from these 15 HDs.

Equally as important, the Anchorage HDs that should favor Begich have low numbers of early/absentee votes and lean on the high end of questionable votes.

I have to rate Stevens' chances of winning even higher after examining these figures and considering betting is now 50-50 to win, advise a bet as such.

If anyone wants to see the table, please PM me.

[© tweed]

Begich up to 67.9 on Intrade