indiana=the new ohio?

[WalterMitty]

has indiana become the latest (lean republican) 'battleground'...much like oh?

or will it simply go back to its solidly republican ways (ie like montana post-92)?

[elcorazon]

stays somewhat solid republican, but not as solid as it used to be.  Obama winning and being from a neighboring state and having a decent portion of the state in the Chicago media  market pushed Obama over the top.

In a 50/50 election with a generic dem/rep, Indiana's still probably 55/45 republican or something like that.  while ohio's more like 52/48 republican, maybe even closer.

[phk]

stays somewhat solid republican, but not as solid as it used to be.  Obama winning and being from a neighboring state and having a decent portion of the state in the Chicago media  market pushed Obama over the top.

In a 50/50 election with a generic dem/rep, Indiana's still probably 55/45 republican or something like that.  while ohio's more like 52/48 republican, maybe even closer.

This!

[Lief 🗽]

I think the new Missouri would be a more appropriate title.

[Sbane]

Not really. The stars really aligned for Obama this time. Very bad manufacturing economy mixed with Bushphobia among the young combined with a slight home state advantage, and you get a democrat winning IN. Needless to say it will be hard to repeat it. But it won't become another solid republican state that votes by 20 points for the republican in a tied election. Democrats have a base in Marion and Lake county they won't lose. Those swings in the rural counties should subside though.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

IN has moved from strong GOP to weak GOP, but by no means is it a "battleground" or "swing" state.

OH is a swing state with a slight GOP advantage, just as it has been for decades.  No Democratic President since JFK has failed to carry it.

My current list of "pure" swing states (as in ones that can go either way in a 50-50 race), from most GOP to most Dem:
OH, VA, CO, NV, NM, AZ, IA, MN

FL and MO are now weak GOP (FL really always was).  WI, MI, PA, and NH are now weak Dem (MI and PA really always were).  VA, CO, NV, and AZ all moved to swing from weak GOP, but this shift is offset by gains that GOP states like TX and FL are making in the electoral vote in 2010.

I may rethink this, though.

[Sam Spade]

Indiana is a state that acts strangely.  I would advise not predicting future results on the basis of this election.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Indiana is a state that acts strangely.  I would advise not predicting future results on the basis of this election.

This election has "anomaly" written all over it everywhere.  If he's successful in his first term, this could be one of those Presidents who transcends his party the way Reagan did.

If Obama accomplishes 1/3 of what he says he will, we'll be looking at this in 2012:

...then in 2016 we go back to the Bush/Gore split and life goes on as usual.

If you think that's far-fetched, have a look at 1984, 1972, and 1964.

Of course, if he screws up, we could have this: