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Author Topic: Impressive county swings  (Read 3378 times)
bgwah
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« on: November 05, 2008, 03:42:31 am »
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Post impressive/huge county swings you come across here. Some I found are:

Teton County, Idaho
2000: 65.3 - 27.0 Bush
2004: 60.6 - 38.4 Bush
2008: 49.4 - 48.6 Obama

Floyd County, Kentucky
2004: 63-36 Kerry
2008: 53-45 McCain

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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 03:45:33 am »
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Appalachia was just plain awful for Obama. Of course, he made zero effort here, so it was easy for people to assume he was a lot of things that he was not.

If I had to hazard a very early 2012 prediction, it'd be that these areas will swing to Obama strongly, especially if the economy picks up.

I'm sure the idea of a Democrat winning Virginia while losing Buchanan County is something that Al finds interesting. Smiley

But for a huge bright spot on the racial issue, look at eastern Pennsylvania and Michigan (pretty much the whole state). I still can't believe Obama actually won Kent County (Grand Rapids). He also cleaned up in supposedly highly racist Macomb and Monroe counties. Also the Upper Peninsula; I'm proud to see we went for the black guy over the chick whose accent sounds like us.

Obama did amazingly well with blue collar voters in the Midwest and Northeast (Indiana is more evidence of this, as well as Wisconsin and Minnesota).
« Last Edit: November 05, 2008, 03:49:16 am by Nym90 »Logged
Nhoj
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 04:32:36 pm »
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i think the numbers in michigan can in part be attributed to mccains move to pull out of the state i have a feeling he demoralized the republicans maybe even insulted some with that move its likely alot didnt turn out.

also im guessing there was some pretty big swing in indiana?
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 05:23:50 pm »
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Post impressive/huge county swings you come across here. Some I found are:

Teton County, Idaho
2000: 65.3 - 27.0 Bush
2004: 60.6 - 38.4 Bush
2008: 49.4 - 48.6 Obama

Floyd County, Kentucky
2004: 63-36 Kerry
2008: 53-45 McCain



Teton is being flooded with non-LDS rich latte liberals who aren't quite rich enough to afford a ranch in Jackson Hole, so they live on the other side of the hill. In other words, much of the swing in driven by demographics rather than minds changing.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 05:35:36 pm »
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^ I think that's fairly obvious--though I've read it's a more affordable place for service workers who work in Jackson Hole to live (so not exactly rich latte liberals). But maybe I'm wrong.
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Beef
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 05:36:31 pm »
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Since this seems to be the thread...

Tippecanoe, Indiana
2004: 59-40 Bush
2008: 55-44 Obama

That is a swing, folks.  No natural disaster, no demographic changes to speak of.  Purdue University is fairly conservative as large state schools go.  Parents send them there as an alternative to the Pinko IU.  But the kids were liberal enough and motivated enough to make a huge impact.

Floyd County, Kentucky
2004: 63-36 Kerry
2008: 53-45 McCain

Even bigger... I want to give them the benefit of the doubt and find a reason other than race that that happened.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2008, 05:39:26 pm by Beef »Logged

Nhoj
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 05:40:50 pm »
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^ I think that's fairly obvious--though I've read it's a more affordable place for service workers who work in Jackson Hole to live (so not exactly rich latte liberals). But maybe I'm wrong.
its about 14% hispanic so that seems probable but i think its also getting alot of the latte libs aswell
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2008, 05:44:06 pm »
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Fresno, CA
2004: 58-42 Bush
2008: 49-49 McCain
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2008, 05:56:20 pm »
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Even bigger... I want to give them the benefit of the doubt and find a reason other than race that that happened.

Race is probably the wrong way of looking at it. A certain strange insular Blue Remembered Hills-ish xenophobia is closer to the mark, I think. That, and the fact that no obvious reason (beyond ancestral loyalties) to prefer the Democratic candidate to the Republican this time round; class was not part of Obama's appeal at all. Take that out of the picture, and all you have are cultural factors.
It's the combination of those two things that produced results like this. And facts like the following;

Turnout of registered voters in Floyd was just 50%. In some Eastern Kentucky counties it fell below (sometimes well below) that.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2008, 06:25:19 pm »
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^ I think that's fairly obvious--though I've read it's a more affordable place for service workers who work in Jackson Hole to live (so not exactly rich latte liberals). But maybe I'm wrong.

Ya, no doubt the servant class is around, but there are these haciendas sprouting up everywhere, or so I am told by a surveyor who lives there who did some work for a client of mine who bought some land in Fremont County.
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2008, 06:40:47 pm »
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I dont think its anything impressive, but my county [Henrico County] was 54-46 Bush in 2004, and it went 56-44 Obama last night.
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Warren '16!
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2008, 10:23:07 am »
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The NY Times does all of the hard work for us:

 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

It's really incredible how all of Indiana swung in one election. The biggest one I've found so far is Elkhart County going from 70% - 29% to 55% - 44%.
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2008, 10:39:47 am »
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Honolulu County
2004: 51-48 Kerry
2008: 70-29 Obama

Hawaii is great.
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ill ind
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2008, 10:43:03 am »
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xfactor

  Take a look at some of those rural Wisconsin Counties.

Richland County 24% more Democratic.
Waupaca County 22% more Democratic
Outagamie County 22% more Democratic
Waushara County 20% more Democratic

I'm originally from Waupaca County and am in total shock at how McCain was absolutely obliterated in the traditionally GOP rural Wisconsin counties.  After all Northern Wisconsin was one of the mentioned 'pro-America areas of America'.  I have no explanation for the shift.  Will see family from there this weekend and will definitely try to get an idea of what went on.

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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2008, 11:00:34 am »
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^ Please do, I was pleasantly surprised by how rural Wisconsin swung for Obama in both the primaries and the general election.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2008, 11:13:01 am »
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Rockdale, GA went from Bush +22 to Obama +9

Obama also racked up some impressive numbers in the counties just west of Philly (e.g. Lancaster, PA: McCain + 32 -> McCain + 12) while losing ground in the Southwest part of the state.  
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2008, 12:38:37 pm »
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xfactor

  Take a look at some of those rural Wisconsin Counties.

Richland County 24% more Democratic.
Waupaca County 22% more Democratic
Outagamie County 22% more Democratic
Waushara County 20% more Democratic

I'm originally from Waupaca County and am in total shock at how McCain was absolutely obliterated in the traditionally GOP rural Wisconsin counties.  After all Northern Wisconsin was one of the mentioned 'pro-America areas of America'.  I have no explanation for the shift.  Will see family from there this weekend and will definitely try to get an idea of what went on.

Let me know what they say.  My theory, being from the area and intimately familiar with it:

These are socially conservative Lutherans, Catholics, and Evangelicals.  Though they have very strong "pro-family" and "pro-life" views, they are really very progressive and open-minded when it comes to non-wedge issues.  There isn't a racist to be found among them, though interracial marriage does make some of the older folks uncomfortable. 

There was a widespread belief that Bush had failed the country, and McCain couldn't be allowed to continue the nation down that same path.  War and the economy are probably the two biggest issues involved, and a sense that we are in a national emergency, therefore justifying electing a Democrat who might not have social views they agree with.

Richland might also be an outgrowth of the "Madison tentacles" I see extending into the southwest part of the state.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2008, 12:54:40 pm »
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being from rural Wisconsin beef i wouldnt say there isnt a racist among them but otherwise i think you got it right we are rather culturally conservative yet progressive when it comes to things like health care.
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danny
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2008, 01:08:28 pm »
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Osceola county, Forida went from 52-47 Bush to 60-40 Obama.

Jackson county, Arkansas went from 57-42 Kerry to 56-39 Mccain.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2008, 01:22:45 pm by danny »Logged

ill ind
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2008, 01:33:33 pm »
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Beef

you stated:

These are socially conservative Lutherans, Catholics, and Evangelicals.  Though they have very strong "pro-family" and "pro-life" views, they are really very progressive and open-minded when it comes to non-wedge issues.  There isn't a racist to be found among them, though interracial marriage does make some of the older folks uncomfortable. 

I do believe that you are onto something here.  In rural Wisconsin traditional churches such as Lutherans and Catholics still reign supreme.  The mega-church, Mc-church or whatever you want to call it hasn't caught on.  In fact, I'd be willing to venture that there is an undercurrent of backlash from many people in these areas against the whole 'Christian Conservative/Christian Coalition' movement.  While indeed there are strong 'pro-family' and 'pro-life' values, people tend to be more Libertarian leaning in that your religion is your business and they do not like being told what they should and should not believe.  Wedge issues tend to sell alot less here than in many other parts of the country.



Richland might also be an outgrowth of the "Madison tentacles" I see extending into the southwest part of the state.

  You are probably right on this.  Exurban Madison voted very Democratic, while exurban Milwaukee appears to have been the only GOP stronghold in the state--although all of exurban Milwaukee trended Democratic as well.

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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2008, 01:48:18 pm »
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Osceola county, Forida went from 52-47 Bush to 60-40 Obama.

The FL-15 open seat went 53%-42%. It was essentially uncontested by the Democrats after Sen. Bill Posey took the nomination. A lost opportunity although I imagine that if the Democrats had a good possible candidate there, he or she would have won.
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Beef
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2008, 02:24:49 pm »
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I do believe that you are onto something here.  In rural Wisconsin traditional churches such as Lutherans and Catholics still reign supreme.  The mega-church, Mc-church or whatever you want to call it hasn't caught on.

I guarantee you know people who go to Calvary Bible Church Neenah, Appleton Alliance, or even Christ the Rock in Menasha.  The megachurches are catching on everywhere; it's just that Clintonville, New London, and Waupaca are too small to support 'em.  People from those communities also go to Fox River Mall to do their shopping, which is just minutes from either Alliance or Calvary.

  In fact, I'd be willing to venture that there is an undercurrent of backlash from many people in these areas against the whole 'Christian Conservative/Christian Coalition' movement.  While indeed there are strong 'pro-family' and 'pro-life' values, people tend to be more Libertarian leaning in that your religion is your business and they do not like being told what they should and should not believe.  Wedge issues tend to sell alot less here than in many other parts of the country.

The big box churches keep siphoning off parishioners from the Catholic and Lutheran churches, so they are very unhappy about that.  It's especially a sore issue among Catholics, because these people are converting to Protestantism.  Also, as the conservative members go to the big boxes, the remnants get more and more liberal.  All of that will lead to backlash in the local churches, but not in the population as a whole.

I think this was a rebuke of Bush more than anything else.

  You are probably right on this.  Exurban Madison voted very Democratic, while exurban Milwaukee appears to have been the only GOP stronghold in the state--although all of exurban Milwaukee trended Democratic as well.

Did it actually trend Democratic or just swing Democratic?  I haven't run the numbers.  A Democratic trend in Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee would be a significant event.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2008, 05:02:59 pm by Beef »Logged

ill ind
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2008, 04:50:58 pm »
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Beef

  I haven't lived in Clintonville in 20 years.  My parents and other family members do however.  They still go to the same Lutheran church that my mothers great grandfather helped found back in the 1880's.  (It does have diminishing/older membership by the way) Some of the New London family members are Methodist, the others I do not know where they go.  Perhaps it is because my contact is with my family members that I feel the way I do.  I'll definitely ask this weekend and try to get some sort of a feel as to what went on.
  I've never detected outright animosity towards GWB however--unhappiness, but not animosity.  GWB carried Waupaca County by 19 points last time, so 1 out of 5 Bush voters turned around and voted Democratic this year.  Also, Clintonville appears to be losing population again after a gain in 2000.  The town is in many ways a retirement locale for local farmers.  I imagine that New London and Waupaca play that same role to some extent although both are more vibrant than Clintonville is.  New London and Waupaca are easier commutes to the Valley for workers too.   
  I do not know if people go to the Fox Valley Mall as much anymore.  Both New London and Waupaca have Walmarts, so people probably stay more local.  However it is a far cry from my childhood when going to Appleton was a major trip.

Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha Counties all swung Democratic this year compared to 2004.  Bad terminology on my part.  Trend is not the word I should have used.

Ill-Ind
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Beef
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2008, 05:05:20 pm »
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New London and Waupaca are easier commutes to the Valley for workers too.   

Especially with the new US-10 freeway.  I think that cut off like 15 minutes from the trip.
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ill ind
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« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2008, 12:13:16 pm »
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Beef

Here is some interesting data to chew on:

In Waupaca County

15,064 votes or 59.08% were cast in the 22 rural townships.  That vote broke down 51.05% for McCain and 47.67% for Obama.  Obama carried 7 townships--5 in the northwest corner of the county and the 2 that surround New London.

1559 votes or 6.11% of the votes cast came from the 6 villages in the county.  49.78% went for Obama and 48.94% went for McCain.  Big Falls, Iola, Ogdensburg, and Scandanavia all went for Obama and are all in the northwest portion of the county in the 5 townships he carried there.  The other two, Fremont and Embarrass both went for McCain.

8876 votes or 34.81% came from the 6 cities in the County.  56.31% went to Obama and 42.46% went to McCain.  In the northeastern portion of the county, Marion went for McCain and Manawa was a tie.  Clintonville (3rd largest city--7.7% of the county vote) broke for Obama 54.25% to 44.64%  In the southeast, the city of Weyewega went for Obama 56.31% to 43.09%.  In the southwest is the City of Waupaca (largest city--surpassing New London by 1 vote--and is 10.79% of the county vote) went for Obama 57.18% to 41.85%.

Then there is New London--again 10.79% of the vote--it went for Obama 60.35% to 38.17%

In summary, the whole northwestern portion of the county broke for Obama
The northeastern portion voted for McCain except for Clintonville
The southwestern portion broke for McCain except for Waupaca
The southeastern portion broke for McCain except for Weyewega
The east Central portion of the county (New London and the two townships surrounding it) broke very heavily for Obama.

Let me know if this strikes up anything

Ill-Ind
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