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Author Topic: Where does Obama go on the "offensive" in 2012?  (Read 3673 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: November 05, 2008, 12:17:15 pm »
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Fighting on your enemy's  turf is an important part of winning the media's narrative in any election, but Barack already won nearly every state he could have possibly hoped to this year from the Republican column. So where does he go on the offensive in 2012?

I'd guess that these will be his top targets...

1. Arizona
2. Missouri
3. Montana
4. Georgia
5. South Dakota
6. North Dakota

What do you think?
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BeccaM
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2008, 12:21:42 pm »
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I thought this would be about his campaign message. Obviously the change theme won't work anymore, so hopefully he has some accomplishments to pitch.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2008, 01:46:44 pm »
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I thought this would be about his campaign message. Obviously the change theme won't work anymore, so hopefully he has some accomplishments to pitch.
Haha, yeah the change theme ain't gonna fly in 2012.

Anyway, the most likely scenario is probably Obama wanting to hold on to the states he won this year with a possible attempt at Arizona (would probably have gone Obama if it hadn't been for McCain being the GOP nominee), Georgia and Missouri. Montana is a possibily but hey, it's 3 electoral votes so who cares?

One smart pitch that I think he could have attempted already this year, was going heavily after Texas. I would have been very curious to see how close that could have gotten if he had really invested there.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2008, 01:49:27 pm »
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Just to clarifly, I'm not suggesting that Obama could have won Texas this year, but my feeling is that democrats would be well advised to start swaying over Texas voters. McCain carried the state by 12 points, but Texas wasn't contested and have lots of latino voters. If democrats want to turn it around at some point, they should start investing.
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2008, 01:53:19 pm »
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I thought this would be about his campaign message. Obviously the change theme won't work anymore, so hopefully he has some accomplishments to pitch.

"Four years ago, you voted for change.  We've given you change...[insert various statistics]...But we aren't finished yet."
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 05:02:10 pm »
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Just to clarifly, I'm not suggesting that Obama could have won Texas this year, but my feeling is that democrats would be well advised to start swaying over Texas voters. McCain carried the state by 12 points, but Texas wasn't contested and have lots of latino voters. If democrats want to turn it around at some point, they should start investing.

I agree, the Dems should try to keep on diminishing Latino vote for GOP and so, invest heavily in TX, in order to force Republicans to defend the Lone Star state, their only big state (vs CA and NY and IL for the Dems).

Apart from TX, of course: AZ, MO and GA.
And better for Obama to fight to solidify OH, FL, VA, NC, IN than to go on the offensive in ND, SD, MT, NE-2, MS or WV.
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perdedor
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 05:30:10 pm »
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If up against a week opponent, I would take a gander at both Texas and South Carolina. If Obama could improve his numbers in North Texas...he could easily carry the state, no easy task however...especially not for a black guy. Obama actually did exceptionally well in South Carolina considering how little he put towards it post-primary.
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2008, 08:27:05 pm »
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'offense' is a silly and artificial construct created by the past cycle's election results.
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2008, 10:32:27 am »
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I thought this would be about his campaign message. Obviously the change theme won't work anymore, so hopefully he has some accomplishments to pitch.

"Four years ago, you voted for change.  We've given you change...[insert various statistics]...But we aren't finished yet."

It probably won't be hard for him to take credit for the economy turning around and having gotten out of Iraq. I'd imagine it'd be more like:

"When George Bush was elected in 2000, we started losing jobs, we started losing our houses, we started losing wars, we started losing respect around the world. Now the economy has turned around, Iraq was sucessfully teminated, and we're world leaders again. Don't go back to the failures of Republican rule."
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2008, 08:42:47 pm »
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1.  Arizona
2.  Missouri
3.  Georgia
4.  Montana
5.  North Dakota
6.  Alaska
7.  South Carolina
8.  Nebraska, statewide.
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2008, 08:59:34 pm »
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He should make a serious effort at Texas for the good of the rest of the Democratic Party.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2008, 09:09:40 pm »
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I would say that Arizona and Montana would be notable.

He really doesn't have to go for McCain states in order to win...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2008, 09:36:16 pm »
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where does Bush go on the "offensive" in 1988?

[/1984]



to prove how stupid this is
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2008, 02:16:50 am »
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2008, 03:01:19 am »
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What if his term isn't as great as he's built it up to be, and he actually has to play defense?
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2008, 03:23:02 am »
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1. Arizona
2. Texas
3. Montana
4. Missouri
5. Georgia
6. North Dakota
7. South Dakota
8. West Virginia
9. South Carolina
10. Arkansas
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2008, 03:27:31 am »
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1.  Arizona
2.  Missouri
3.  Georgia
4.  Montana
5.  North Dakota
6.  Alaska
7.  South Carolina
8.  Nebraska, statewide
.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2008, 04:47:21 am »
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He first needs to worry about preventing big Republican gains in 2010. 
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2008, 09:49:02 am »
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He first needs to worry about preventing big Republican gains in 2010. 

Basically.
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phk
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2008, 10:05:58 am »
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He first needs to worry about preventing big Republican gains in 2010. 

Basically.

2010 is the class that got re-elected on Bush's coattails in 2004. The Dems could likely gain seats, especially Martinez and Bunning. 

I sense 2012 as the first time the GOP start gaining seats back, Obama better hope its not like a "GOP Revolution". Though a pro-GOP swing in 2010 could prevent the above mentioned 2 from losing in 2010.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2008, 10:23:43 am by phknrocket1k »Logged

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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2008, 11:26:26 am »
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What if his term isn't as great as he's built it up to be, and he actually has to play defense?

Well, where he got more than the national average-

At any rate...these are the "swing states" coming into 2012-



He first needs to worry about preventing big Republican gains in 2010. 

Basically.

2010 is the class that got re-elected on Bush's coattails in 2004. The Dems could likely gain seats, especially Martinez and Bunning. 

I sense 2012 as the first time the GOP start gaining seats back, Obama better hope its not like a "GOP Revolution". Though a pro-GOP swing in 2010 could prevent the above mentioned 2 from losing in 2010.

Even if Obama does well, he will have to worry about 2014.


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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2008, 12:19:37 am »
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where does Bush go on the "offensive" in 1988?

[/1984]



to prove how stupid this is

Irrelevant.
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