You may be right in that he (Kerry) won't turn things around in time to pull off a win. But I'm projecting he will turn things around with a surge that will be more than Gore's last minute election-night gas. And even if he doesn't, it isn't because the opportunity to do so isn't there. (I agree you're right that there has to be some "gel" time at the end of this year's contest--but we're not to that zone yet.)
The swing voters are very fickle, and the last election proved that every bit of the game clock can count. It's more inclined to do so this year than ever.
Gore's "gas" was based largely on brilliant turnout opperations by the DNC. That will not happen this time. I have spoken with a guy who has worked on several Democratic campaigns and he has said flat out that organization on a state-district-city-ward level is just awful this year. He has predicted Kerry will lose in a landslide. This is a fact, this isn't opinion.
You're using anecdotal evidence. That doesn't prove anything.
Not to mention that there are still 6 weeks to go. Did everyone know 6 weeks before the election last time that the Democratic GOTV effort would be very good on election day?
