538 vs Real Numbers

[tokar]

There are still a lot of ballots to be counted, but here is where things are at 9PM EST 11/5/08:

First number is 538.com predicted margin, second is actual margin (currently, according to FoxNews.com, which is the only page to list the percents down to two decimal places), third number is how much 538 overshot (positive) or undershot  the actual margin

States within 0.00-5.00% over/under: 10
States within 5.01-10.00%: 6
States within 10.01-20.00%: 13
States within 20.01-30.00%: 9
States within 30.01-50.00%: 9
States within 50.01% or more: 4

(color code: red = 0-5% over or under, orange = 5.01-10% over or under, yellow = 10.01 to 20% over or under, green = 20.01 to 30% over or under, blue = 30.01 to 50% over or under, purple = over 50.01%)

Negative number = McCain victory
Positive number = Obama victory

AK   -14.2   -25.26   -43.78%
AL   -22.2   -21.63   2.64%
AR   -11.1   -19.93   -44.31%
AZ   -4.9   -8.54   -42.62%
CA   20.6   23.99   -14.13%
CO   6.8   6.74   0.89%
CT   19.8   21.53   -8.04%
DC   59.4   86.31   -31.18%
DE   24.1   23.71   1.64%
FL   1.7   2.42   -29.75%
GA   -3.7   -5.46   -32.23%
HI   27.5   45.14   -39.08%
IA   11.7   9.29   25.94%
ID   -21.8   -25.44   -14.31%
IL   21.8   24.67   -11.63%
IN   -1.5   0.96   56.25%
KS   -13.6   -15.39   -11.63%
KY   -13.6   -16.36   -16.87%
LA   -9.9   -18.72   -47.12%
MA   19.9   25.82   -22.93%
MD   23   23.18   -0.78%
ME   14.5   17.54   -17.33%
MI   12.6   16.49   -23.59%
MN   10.1   10.26   -1.56%
MO   -0.2   -0.21   -4.76%
MS   -11.3   -13.75   -17.82%
MT   -2.7   -3.42   -21.05%
NC   1   0.32   212.50%
ND   -2.7   -8.68   -68.89%
NE   -14.5   -16.11   -9.99%
NH   9.8   10.03   -2.29%
NJ   14.5   14.58   -0.55%
NM   9.7   15.03   -35.46%
NV   4.9   12.43   -60.58%
NY   25.4   25.44   -0.16%
OH   3.4   3.9   -12.82%
OK   25.7   -31.29   -17.87%
OR   14.8   13.81   7.17%
PA   8.1   10.29   -21.28%
RI   24.1   28.28   -14.78%
SC   -9.7   -8.86   9.48%
SD   -8.7   -8.4   3.57%
TN   -12.9   -15.07   -14.40%
TX   -10.8   -11.78   -8.32%
UT   -25.9   -28.71   -9.79%
VA   5.6   4.47   25.28%
VT   24.6   35.26   -30.23%
WA   14.4   16.89   -14.74%
WI   11.5   13.9   -17.27%
WV   -9.8   -13.12   -25.30%
WY   -25.2   -32.53   -22.53%


With North Carolina, the margin for error is very small.  His model predicted O+1, and it is currently O+0.32, which is not bad considering how tight the state is, but %'s say its 212.5% off...

[elcorazon]

I don't follow you.

[Beef]

I don't follow you.

I do.

Very strange use of numbers, and I'm not sure how this is supposed to help.

[ottermax]

Maybe you should measure the accuracy by percentage point difference instead. The percent thing can make it really crazy because the prediction can get very far off.

[The Ex-Factor]

This is nothing. Check out the popular vote results:

Popular vote: 52.4% to 46.3%
538's predictions: 52.3% to 46.2%

Of course, some states have still yet to come in, but that's very impressive regardless.

[tokar]

I don't follow you.

Sorry that was my fault.  I forgot one key point.

Negative number is McCain victory.
Positive number is Obama victory.