Do you know who else is from Delaware?

[Lunar]

-----Original Message-----
From: [senior Democratic operative]
Sent: Wed 11/5/2008
To: Ben Smith
Subject:

plouffe for biden's seat..



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Plouffe

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nah, he's much better at what he's doing now. In the Senate he'd just be another Democrat.

[Lief 🗽]

YES.

YES.

YES.

[Bacon King]

Shoot. Don't know how that'd work out. Obama could use a staunch ally in the Senate, I guess.

[Eleanor Martins]

It'd be a terrible choice. As Erskine Bowles found out, there's a huge gulf that exists between running the engine room of a campaign and being out front and center in the public eye, and I hope it doesn't come to pass. I'm not entirely clear on the state of the Republican bench in that state because of Mike Castle's personal dynasty, so other than the obvious Beau Biden this could potentially be a thorny seat to hold onto in 2014.

Republicans are wretched over there.

[Lunar]

I mean, Plouffe is not a good speaker. I see him communicate and be interviewed and he reminds me a lot of Nate Silver.  Both are phenomenal number-crunchers, some of the best political numbers-people in history. 

But Plouffe isn't really senatorial material.  But neither is Tim Johnson post-stroke or any number of odd-speaking senators.

A couple things to remember:

1) It's not exactly a secret that Joe Biden sees his son Beau Biden as his successor.  Barack knows that he can't go behind Joe's back and push for someone to beat Joe's son.  Especially when Plouffe has any number of dozens of employment opportunities in an Obama administration. 

Personally, David Plouffe is a hero of mine for reasons I won't bog into.   I think he's a minor-league genius and an expert in political demography like we've never seen before in a modern campaign.  That makes him an invaluable asset for any number of roles in an Obama administration.  He would be a better bureaucrat than legislator, hands down.

 I mean, all Plouffe would do is be an Obama puppet in the senate, and, health permitting, with Biden as VP for 8 years, Beau would be 100% just as much as a puppet too.  I mean, is Beau Biden going to take a position opposite to the white house?  I don't think so.  Plouffe doesn't particularly want or need the senate seat and it results in zero political capital for Obama to overide Joe on this.

2) It *COULD* look like cronyism.  Using your political capital to get your associates into the senate.   Could be used against Obama's reelection, but I think he could keep his hands clean of it.  I don't think the GOP would be upset by a Plouffe pick since he would be a weaker  opponent against that one GOP dude whose name I keep forgetting that is sort of "next in line" for Biden's spot.


On the flip side of this argument, it also looks like nepotism for Obama to push for Beau Biden -- and it's an easier narrative to drive.  I mean, most swing voters have never heard of Plouffe nor could they understand what he did for Obama -- but they probably could understand the idea that Beau Biden is Joe Biden's son.

3) And the fact is, I don't think the governor of Delaware has much of a choice in this.  Either the outgoing or incoming governor could appoint the next senator, depending on when Biden resigns.  That means the Obama administration has the optimal pick between an outgoing governor (seeking employment?   doesn't care about nepotism-astic political consequences?), and an incoming one (seeking staunch allies?) to choose from, one of which is guaranteed to do their bidding.

5) Beau is in Iraq.  What happens if you'e an active duty soldier and you're appointed to the senate?  Can you say "Screw this, I quit, I'm going to D.C." if you're in the field?

6) ..and I kind of support this, if it doesn't make the difference between 59 and 60, what if Obama and Biden pushed for that one "next in line" GOP guy to replace Biden?  It'd be essentially throwing McConnell and the entire GOP a bone in order to maintain good relations.  This is a longshot of unimaginable proportions, but if it happens, you saw it here first. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

6) ..and I kind of support this, if it doesn't make the difference between 59 and 60, what if Obama and Biden pushed for that one "next in line" GOP guy to replace Biden?  It'd be essentially throwing McConnell and the entire GOP a bone in order to maintain good relations.[/b]  This is a longshot of unimaginable proportions, but if it happens, you saw it here first. 

Dude, you don't give Mr. Fillibuster everything in sight one more seat to fillibuster from.

[Lunar]

Well, honestly, it depends if Obama/Biden want to govern as Democrats or as bipartisans.  They would gain massive media support by giving up on a free seat for the guy that "deserves" it/"earned" it over nepotism.  They would garner massive GOP props over the move.  They would lose one seat.


I'd be really happy to see Plouffe get the job because he's such an amazing guy.  Beau, less so, but still he seems like an ok guy.  Both of them would be 0% independent, but whatever. 


Mr. Filibuster may be humbled by such a political move (an extra senate seat and one relatively easy to hold for the long term) that he filibusters less and works for bipartisan legislation more.


Remember that Obama is not a  hack for the cause but a dude trying to maximize his governance effectiveness.  He won't choose a Republican, almost certainly, but I simply query if that could make the most sense.

[Eleanor Martins]

Good luck pushing that through with Emanuel at the reins.

Moreover, there is absolutely no Republican next in line guy to perform a role like this.

[Platypus]

Ruth Ann Minner for Senate!

[Lunar]

Good luck pushing that through with Emanuel at the reins.

Moreover, there is absolutely no Republican next in line guy to perform a role like this.

Representative, Former-Governor, Former Lt.Governor, Mike Castle?  But he's only been Biden's friend for 40 years, so maybe not?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, honestly, it depends if Obama/Biden want to govern as Democrats or as bipartisans.  They would gain massive media support by giving up on a free seat for the guy that "deserves" it/"earned" it over nepotism.  They would garner massive GOP props over the move.  They would lose one seat.

The Republicans don't deserve any Senate seats from Delaware, they haven't won any such election there. Republicans don't play nice, so why give them more ammunition?

I mean, if there was a Lincoln Chafee, Lowell Weicker or Jim Jeffords in Delaware, it wouldn't hurt to appoint him, but they aren't Republicans any more, anyways.

As for the seat, I think the governor should appoint some non Biden family member, possibly herself, and Beau Biden can run in the special election in 2010, if he wants.

[Lunar]

Again, Mike Castle has won many such elections and is a 40 year friend of Biden.

He's 69 and might resign after 6 years anyway.

[Lief 🗽]

And again, we don't need to throw the Republicans a bone. We won this election. The American people elected a Democratic President, at least six more Democratic senators, and more than twenty more Democratic representatives, as well plenty of new Democratic governors, including one in Delaware. If the Republicans were in this position, they wouldn't play nice, and we shouldn't either.

[Lunar]

I didn't say it was the best move.  But it may be.

Castle is clearly the most qualified for the job, if Obama wants to start a legacy of accomplishment to become one of the greatest presidents, he'll HAVE to be bipartisan.  What better way to reach across the isle than pushing the most qualified person for the job rather than your own son?

Sure, I'm sure you'd find it great if Obama pulled Bush's portrait off the wall and literally pissed on it, but Obama has to work with these guys to run the country.

Castle's a good guy, and generally hailed as a moderate pragmatist, and it might give Obama more leverage to enact the reforms you desire. 

[Bacon King]

I love it, Castle for Senate. He's a moderate, won't serve for long, and will build bipartisan rapport. Lunar, you best contact someone in the Obama camp with that!

[Lunar]

I love it, Castle for Senate. He's a moderate, won't serve for long, and will build bipartisan rapport. Lunar, you best contact someone in the Obama camp with that!

Well, he's been friends with Biden for 40 years and is a fixture of Delaware politics, so I imagine his name comes up.  It's probable that Reid or someone like that would be upset and view this as an act of antagonism against Congress, killing the idea. 

I like in particular because it's not obviously a "token" - Castle is clearly the most qualified person for the job by an order of magnitude.  It's an expression of "country first" in a way.

But I think it'd be fine.  Castle could step down in 6 years and endorse Beau even...