WA Governor's Race

[Lief 🗽]

So...er... that was an unexpectedly large margin for Gregoire. What up with that?

(Also, HAHAHAH ROSSI WAS SO FUKCING OWNED HAHAHAH)

[Meeker]

There were a lot of really strange results in Washington last night. Don't really know how to explain them quite yet - I'd have to wait for all the absentees to come in and then take a closer look at the breakdown by LD and town (I'll let Alcon do precincts...)

[bgwah]

Gregoire also saw a late surge in the polls through October. Basically young voters switched from Rossi to Gregoire at the last minute.

Gregoire also clearly did well in suburban Seattle this time.

Oh, and, um. WE ALREADY HAVE A WASHINGTON 2008 THREAD!

[Ogre Mage]

Like Meeker said, we'll have to wait for the full results to come in before we can give a more definite answer.  However, during the last 12 days of the race, 5 separate polls showed Gregoire clinging to a 2 point lead over Rossi.  Then, a Survey USA poll released on the eve of the election showed a 6-point Gregoire lead.  At the time, I mused whether it was an outlier or if the race was breaking in her direction.  The results suggest that it was the latter.

There were two key differences in the poll Survey USA conducted on 10/28 vs the one released on 11/3.  In the poll on 10/28, Rossi led young voters by 17% while Gregoire had a 5 point lead among women.  Per the 11/3 poll, Gregoire pulled even with Rossi among young voters and powered to a 12 point lead among women. 

While the Gregoire campaign was (with some justification) criticized as incompetent, they ran a large and aggressive ground game to GOTV.  In Gregoire's victory speech she said they made over 1 million phone calls and knocked on over 250,000 doors.  My brother said Gregoire had over 100 volunteers in the Beacon Hill neighborhood (in Seattle) contacting voters during the final push.  She made a full-court press to turn out the base in King County.  She also worked to tie herself to Obama (whom she endorsed in Feb.) which may have paid off.

[Alcon]

This was an incredibly weird year for results.  I almost want to think a lot of people were late deciders on an Obama/Gregoire ticket, felt guilty, and split the down-ballot more.  Maybe that's ridiculous.  But there were some surprising losses, including a relatively entrenched Democratic State Senator.  But Obama and Gregoire are both performing above their theoretical ceilings.

Right now, it's looking like Gregoire will probably do better than John Kerry.  I would have laughed at anyone who predicted that.  Other than her campaign's stellar late advertising game, which only seemed stellar because her earlier ads sucked, there's no real explanation.  The Washington GOP has to be collectively swallowing their tongues right now.

Rossi's independent base in the suburbs just totally vanished, and I'm still not sure why.  I doubt even people internal to the parties expected that.

[CultureKing]

Very odd indeed. I personally thought that Gregoire was going to lose (and was already in the bitter stage before the election). I think people may have said they weren't voting for Gregoire based on her image but then upon reflection in looking at her policies and record changed their minds. Remember many voters don't actually do research until as they are voting (aka as they are sitting at the kitchen table voting with the voting guide next to them).