Obama up 6% in the popular vote

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's 5.6% now, and I expect it to expand.
Edit: Now 5.7%.

Here's a good popular vote page.

http://www.sfgate.com/election/races/US/u/p_president/p_0/g_general/us.shtml


Here's the records for a Democratic nominee's popular vote. Only 3 Democrats have ever done better than Obama did. None of those 3 did so well on their first Presidential or Vice Presidential run.

ALL DEMOCRATS OVER 50%


Johnson 1964 61.05
Roosevelt 1936 60.80
Roosevelt 1932 57.41
Jackson 1828 55.93
Jackson 1832 54.74
Roosevelt 1940 54.74
Roosevelt 1944 53.39
Obama 2008 52.2
Samuel Tilden 1876 50.92
Van Buren 1836 50.83
Peirce 1852 50.83
Carter 1976 50.08

[BlueSwan]

Fivethirtyeight.com's preelection PV projection:

Obama: 52,3%
McCain: 46,2%

Actual standings as of right now:

Obama: 52,3%
McCain: 46,5%

Maybe fivethiryeight.com really ARE doing election projections the right way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fivethirtyeight.com's preelection PV projection:

Obama: 52,3%
McCain: 46,2%

Actual standings as of right now:

Obama: 52,3%
McCain: 46,5%

Maybe fivethiryeight.com really ARE doing election projections the right way.

Well, OK, that doesn't seem like any Bradley effect. McCain has dropped to 46.4%, so 538 was amazingly accurate. Obama will probably end up winning by more than their predicted 6.1 point margin, though.

In other news, Obama is up to a record 62.17 million votes, beating Bush's 2004 votes.

[Lunar]

Wow.

His national margin isn't that great.  A hack would even argue that this proves the Bradley Effect

But it's truly interesting what states are pushed, some overwhelmingly and surprisingly so, over the edge by this cautious lead.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow.

His national margin isn't that great.  A hack would even argue that this proves the Bradley Effect

But it's truly interesting what states are pushed, some overwhelmingly and surprisingly so, over the edge by this cautious lead.

After Bush got 286 electoral votes and a 2.46% popular margin in 2004, the media wouldn't shut up about his mandate. Of course his stolen election and negative 0.5% popular margin didn't stop him from doing lots of crazy sh**t.

[Eraserhead]

It's a good day to be Scott Rasmussen.

[BlueSwan]

It's a good day to be Scott Rasmussen.

An even better day to be Nate Silver.

Current results:

Obama: 52,4% (538 had him at 52,3%)
McCain: 46,3% (538 had him at 46,2%)

At the moment Silver is within +0,1% for both candidates. That's astonishingly good. As for the EV, they got Indiana wrong (JUST!), but just about everything else right. They didn't call NE-2 for Obama though and has Missouri as a tie - but the latter is also the closest thing to a tie we got.

[© tweed]

Obama +6.1 with some of Cali and Portland out West still to come in.  my PV estimate of 52.82 vs 45.98 may well prove to be just about dead-on.  not to brag or anything.

[Reds4]

Thank goodness its rasmussen that came so close and zogby that is quite a ways off... now we won't have to listen to zogby talk about how great he did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clear but close. Hopefully Republicans take the first part on board (though with the electoral college totals being what they are, how could they not...), hopefully Democrats in general and the Obama Administration in particular do the same with the second...

[© tweed]

Clear but close. Hopefully Republicans take the first part on board (though with the electoral college totals being what they are, how could they not...), hopefully Democrats in general and the Obama Administration in particular do the same with the second...

a 6.5-7% margin (which is what it likely will end up as, IMO) isn't close at all with today's stubborn electorate.  if Bush had a 'mandate' with a 2.4% win, wtf is this?  cue to dictatorship?

[Silent Hunter]

Clear but close. Hopefully Republicans take the first part on board (though with the electoral college totals being what they are, how could they not...), hopefully Democrats in general and the Obama Administration in particular do the same with the second...

Quite, Al. The words to a certain Human League song come to mind...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

a 6.5-7% margin (which is what it likely will end up as, IMO) isn't close at all with today's stubborn electorate.

An unusual statement to make when all the huge swings, strange swings and massive outbreaks of ticket-splitting are considered. Whatever else it might be, a stubborn electorate this is not. Obama's win is a clear one (of course) and the election wasn't tight or even in doubt by polling day. Relatively close though. Close enough to make it dangerous for the Obama Administration to believe that it wasn't close (if that makes sense).

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Yeah, see, that's the sort of attitude that I worry about...

[© tweed]

a 6.5-7% margin (which is what it likely will end up as, IMO) isn't close at all with today's stubborn electorate.

An unusual statement to make when all the huge swings, strange swings and massive outbreaks of ticket-splitting are considered. Whatever else it might be, a stubborn electorate this is not. Obama's win is a clear one (of course) and the election wasn't tight or even in doubt by polling day. Relatively close though. Close enough to make it dangerous for the Obama Administration to believe that it wasn't close (if that makes sense).

just because the election was contested between different coalitions than we have seen over the past two cycles (Obama more rich suburbanites and youth, McCain more poorer white rural working classers) doesn't mean that the electorate was un-stubborn.  the opinion polls didn't move terribly much through the whole campaign, and certainly not over the handful of weeks.

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Yeah, see, that's the sort of attitude that I worry about...
[/quote]

would the right form of the word there have been 'queue'?  this is one small area of the English language I shall never master.

[Hash]

I remember how some hacks and kooks said he couldn't break 50 since recent Democrats didn't break 50.

[TheresNoMoney]

Maybe fivethiryeight.com really ARE doing election projections the right way.

Yep, he really knows what he's doing. The only state he got wrong is Indiana, where he had McCain narrowly winning.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Maybe fivethiryeight.com really ARE doing election projections the right way.

Yep, he really knows what he's doing. The only state he got wrong is Indiana, where he had McCain narrowly winning.

Wherever I go, that state causes people fits.  Wisconsin was the ONLY state I got wrong in 2004.

I think I'll move to Texas and see what happens.

[exopolitician]

Hes up 7 now, 53-46.

[BlueSwan]

Hes up 7 now, 53-46.

That's due to rounding. In reality its more like 6½ points, but let's see where it ends up.

[Lunar]

Guys, what do you think about the Bradley Effect.  Could that undo votes already cast?  I think it can.  I saw a couple numbers somewhere.

[Reds4]

53-46 is pretty deceiving since its actually likely to end at about 52.5% to 46.2%. 6.3% is quite a big difference from 7% in the grand scheme of things.. but who's counting....

[Rob]

6.3% is quite a big difference from 7% in the grand scheme of things..

lol, what? Please explain.

[Nym90]

Guys, what do you think about the Bradley Effect.  Could that undo votes already cast?  I think it can.  I saw a couple numbers somewhere.

Well, I would assume most of the Democratic Electors are white, so there could be a Bradley effect when the Electoral College goes to vote.