michigan

[Gustaf]

You cannot compare raw state margins in this election, since Obama won by 7%. That would be like saying in 1984 that Massachusetts was safer for the GOP than Minnesota for the Democrats.

I will say though that what really surprised me was Michigan swinging towards Obama compared to 2004. I certainly didn't expect that. Overall, it seems like what really made Obama in this election was the financial crisis which seems to have pushed blue-collar white voters (outside of the South) heavily in his direction. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio all seemed to improve substantially for him towards the end (as did some other places like Massachusetts).

Still, compared to national average we're still not talking about a state that is safely Democrat. It was something like D +7 or +6 - in other words about as Democratic as Virginia was Republican 8 years ago.

[Gustaf]

You cannot compare raw state margins in this election, since Obama won by 7%. That would be like saying in 1984 that Massachusetts was safer for the GOP than Minnesota for the Democrats.

I will say though that what really surprised me was Michigan swinging towards Obama compared to 2004. I certainly didn't expect that. Overall, it seems like what really made Obama in this election was the financial crisis which seems to have pushed blue-collar white voters (outside of the South) heavily in his direction. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio all seemed to improve substantially for him towards the end (as did some other places like Massachusetts).

Still, compared to national average we're still not talking about a state that is safely Democrat. It was something like D +7 or +6 - in other words about as Democratic as Virginia was Republican 8 years ago.

Huh? Michigan was D+3 or about a 6 point margin above the national average in both 2000 and 2004. Now that margin has grown to about 9 points or so and MI in fact not just swinged, but trended towards Obama.

Huh? I didn't say anything about Michigan margins in the past so none of what you say about that has anything to do with my post and can form a basis for a "huh?" That leaves:"Now that margin has grown to about 9 points or so and MI in fact not just swinged, but trended towards Obama. "

It's true that I had the number there memorized wrong. It was a couple of points higher, which does bring it into border-line solid territory. If it holds at this level it would qualify as solid. The question is whether it actually will though.

I don't know what the whole swing-trend thing is about. I already acknowledged that it swung/trended towards Obama. In fact, that was the whole emphasis of my post, in case you missed it.

[Gustaf]

You cannot compare raw state margins in this election, since Obama won by 7%. That would be like saying in 1984 that Massachusetts was safer for the GOP than Minnesota for the Democrats.

I will say though that what really surprised me was Michigan swinging towards Obama compared to 2004. I certainly didn't expect that. Overall, it seems like what really made Obama in this election was the financial crisis which seems to have pushed blue-collar white voters (outside of the South) heavily in his direction. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio all seemed to improve substantially for him towards the end (as did some other places like Massachusetts).

Still, compared to national average we're still not talking about a state that is safely Democrat. It was something like D +7 or +6 - in other words about as Democratic as Virginia was Republican 8 years ago.

Huh? Michigan was D+3 or about a 6 point margin above the national average in both 2000 and 2004. Now that margin has grown to about 9 points or so and MI in fact not just swinged, but trended towards Obama.

Huh? I didn't say anything about Michigan margins in the past so none of what you say about that has anything to do with my post and can form a basis for a "huh?" That leaves:"Now that margin has grown to about 9 points or so and MI in fact not just swinged, but trended towards Obama. "

It's true that I had the number there memorized wrong. It was a couple of points higher, which does bring it into border-line solid territory. If it holds at this level it would qualify as solid. The question is whether it actually will though.

I don't know what the whole swing-trend thing is about. I already acknowledged that it swung/trended towards Obama. In fact, that was the whole emphasis of my post, in case you missed it.

Oh alright I thought you were trying to say the state was swinging/trending republican which made no sense to me. MI was one of the states Obama seemed to do much better with rural whites, basically following the same pattern as most of the upper midwest and west. That being said it is still not a safe democrat state just a lean state and this should be one of the states republicans need to get more competitive in if they want to win nationally.

Sounds like we agree then.

I do think there was some kind of effect here of lean Democratic states and "normal" battlegrounds swinging hard to Obama in the final days. I suspect this may have been because both campaigns were in high-gear here and then McCain pulled out towards the end when he was losing. I sense this happening in Michigan, Nevada and Colorado, maybe New Hampshire as well. I don't think these states would have been Obama's by 5%+ in a national tie.