onward to 2010 (because it's never too early)

[© tweed]

solid Dem

Arkansas - Lincoln (Arkansas GOP LOL!!)
Connecticut - Dodd (he might retire, but I don't think so.  IIRC that was a ploy so he could transfer money to his prez campaign or something like that)
Delaware - special (Beau Biden?)
Indiana - Bayh (unless Dan Quayle has a kid)
Maryland - Mikulski (old but, yeah)
Massachusetts - special (if Kerry gets the SoS he is reportedly angling for... I heard Patrick & Co. want to change the law so he can appoint Kerry's successor if need be...  the only guy who may have problems winning such a race would be Barney Frank, and he does have statewide ambition, but I doubt he is the guy and I also can't imagine MA sending a Republican to Washington nor would I have a clue who that guy could be.  Joel Mahoney?)
Massachusetts - special II (good shot old Teddy doesn't make it this far...)
New York - Schumer (his for life unless he screws a hooker bareback like bro Spitzer)
North Dakota - Dorgan (gonna be 68 so he probz will run)
Oregon - Wyden
Vermont - Leahy (longest tenured Senate Dem by then, if Kennedy passes and after Biden's resignation?)

potentially competitive Dem tilt

California - Boxer (probably safe but she isn't overly popular.  though I doubt any Republican could take her down, but, who knows)
Colorado - Salazar
Hawaii - Inouye (he's gonna be mad old and Lingle is popular, but would they send a Republican to Washington?  have they ever?  [rhetorical, but maybe it isn't])
Illinois - sorta open but not really (Jackson, Jr. would have trouble winning statewide and I feel like it will be him [as Sam Spade said, Blago is likely to make the worst pick possible].  I also feel as if he will feel pressure to pick a black)
Nevada - Reid (maybe safe but I like to be careful about this kind of stuff.  Reid could be tarred if the Dem government is perceived as a failure, as he is the face of the Dem Senate)
Washington - Murray
Wisconsin - Feingold

likely competitive

Arizona - McCain (I tend to think he will retire, making this perhaps the premier Dem pickup opportunity in an area of the country heading towards them hard.  even if he doesn't, Napolitano could take him, though I have no idea at all if she'd want it)
Florida - Martinez (should be a fun race if the Dems can find someone good.  Cuban-baiting will continue to get harder and harder for the GOP as Castro fades into obscurity, and Martinez can tied to the national GOP as chairman and all, which I don't expect to be rehabilitated by default by 2010)
Missouri - Bond
New Hampshire - Gregg
Ohio - Voinovich (Ryan beats him, imo.  not sure about anyone else)

potentially competitive Republican tilt

Georgia - Iskason (approvals aren't amazing but who knows)
Iowa - Grassley (kinda old, but wins if he runs, which he may well)
Kentucky - Bunning (he has said that he is running again.  maybe he is just senile enough to lose this time around?  alleged homo Mongiardo almost did it last time...)
North Carolina - Burr (cursed seat, remember)
Pennsylvania - Specter (should be mad fun... maybe this belongs in the prior category, but I'll stick it here)

safe Republican

Alabama - Shelby
Alaska - Murkowski (screw Alaska)
Idaho - Crapo ( that name, and always have)
Louisana - Vitter (too few blacks and his repentance has been accepted by the Jesusites as far as I can tell for the hooker-diaper ordeal)
Oklahoma - Coburn (I kind like the dude too )
South Carolina - DeMint
South Dakota - Thune
Utah - Bennett (and he will have my support)

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some of these may be horribly off, but it's just to generate discussion.  I feel like I was a little Dem-biased unintentionally but perhaps the playing field just shakes out that way)

[Sam Spade]

Much like all our predictions, this one will look laughable two years from now. 

[Lief 🗽]

If we can get McConnell within 6% with a crappy candidate and a black Muslim terrorist at the top of the ticket, we can take Bunning's seat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If we can get McConnell within 6% with a crappy candidate and a black Muslim terrorist at the top of the ticket, we can take Bunning's seat.

Bunning-Chandler will be the Marque Senate race of 2010. Ben Chandler has been waiting for another chance at a state wide race and he passed up McConnell fearing he was unbeatable so I say there is a 75% Chandler runs and a 55% he beats Bunning.

[Bacon King]

All the "likely competitive" races are held by Republicans. If that holds, and assuming nothing deluges between now and 2010, it looks like the Democrats might pick up some Senate seats yet again.

But of course as the Spade says it's really way too far out to tell.

[Dan the Roman]

solid Dem

Arkansas - Lincoln (Arkansas GOP LOL!!)
Connecticut - Dodd (he might retire, but I don't think so.  IIRC that was a ploy so he could transfer money to his prez campaign or something like that)
Delaware - special (Beau Biden?)
Indiana - Bayh (unless Dan Quayle has a kid)
Maryland - Mikulski (old but, yeah)
Massachusetts - special (if Kerry gets the SoS he is reportedly angling for... I heard Patrick & Co. want to change the law so he can appoint Kerry's successor if need be...  the only guy who may have problems winning such a race would be Barney Frank, and he does have statewide ambition, but I doubt he is the guy and I also can't imagine MA sending a Republican to Washington nor would I have a clue who that guy could be.  Joel Mahoney?)
Massachusetts - special II (good shot old Teddy doesn't make it this far...)
New York - Schumer (his for life unless he screws a hooker bareback like bro Spitzer)
North Dakota - Dorgan (gonna be 68 so he probz will run)
Oregon - Wyden
Vermont - Leahy (longest tenured Senate Dem by then, if Kennedy passes and after Biden's resignation?)

potentially competitive Dem tilt

California - Boxer (probably safe but she isn't overly popular.  though I doubt any Republican could take her down, but, who knows)
Colorado - Salazar
Hawaii - Inouye (he's gonna be mad old and Lingle is popular, but would they send a Republican to Washington?  have they ever?  [rhetorical, but maybe it isn't])
Illinois - sorta open but not really (Jackson, Jr. would have trouble winning statewide and I feel like it will be him [as Sam Spade said, Blago is likely to make the worst pick possible].  I also feel as if he will feel pressure to pick a black)
Nevada - Reid (maybe safe but I like to be careful about this kind of stuff.  Reid could be tarred if the Dem government is perceived as a failure, as he is the face of the Dem Senate)
Washington - Murray
Wisconsin - Feingold

likely competitive

Arizona - McCain (I tend to think he will retire, making this perhaps the premier Dem pickup opportunity in an area of the country heading towards them hard.  even if he doesn't, Napolitano could take him, though I have no idea at all if she'd want it)
Florida - Martinez (should be a fun race if the Dems can find someone good.  Cuban-baiting will continue to get harder and harder for the GOP as Castro fades into obscurity, and Martinez can tied to the national GOP as chairman and all, which I don't expect to be rehabilitated by default by 2010)
Missouri - Bond
New Hampshire - Gregg
Ohio - Voinovich (Ryan beats him, imo.  not sure about anyone else)

potentially competitive Republican tilt

Georgia - Iskason (approvals aren't amazing but who knows)
Iowa - Grassley (kinda old, but wins if he runs, which he may well)
Kentucky - Bunning (he has said that he is running again.  maybe he is just senile enough to lose this time around?  alleged homo Mongiardo almost did it last time...)
North Carolina - Burr (cursed seat, remember)
Pennsylvania - Specter (should be mad fun... maybe this belongs in the prior category, but I'll stick it here)

safe Republican

Alabama - Shelby
Alaska - Murkowski (screw Alaska)
Idaho - Crapo ( that name, and always have)
Louisana - Vitter (too few blacks and his repentance has been accepted by the Jesusites as far as I can tell for the hooker-diaper ordeal)
Oklahoma - Coburn (I kind like the dude too )
South Carolina - DeMint
South Dakota - Thune
Utah - Bennett (and he will have my support)

---------------------------------------------------------------------


some of these may be horribly off, but it's just to generate discussion.  I feel like I was a little Dem-biased unintentionally but perhaps the playing field just shakes out that way)

Just a few observations.

Massachusetts Specials: Patrick strongly wants appointment power, but he legislature won't give it to him for precisely the reason he wants it. The obvious candidates at the state level in an open seat race(AG Martha Coakley, Treasurer Tim Cahill, Former Congressman Marty Meehen) are not his supporters and have been on bad terms with him since his Obama endorsement. If Patrick gets the appointment he is likely to bypass the state leadership and appoint a young "Progressive" like newly elected State Senator James Eldridge to the the position, which would annoy a whole lot of people who have been waiting in line.

As for Frank, as mentioned as he is, he is a non-factor. He is far too old to run, and he has baggage that has nothing to do with his ideology which would ensure he never made it out of a primary. Appointing him to an open seat(assuming Patrick got the power back in what would look like a Murkowski-like move, and that Patrick chose him) would set up dangerous situation in what may be a bad year for the Democrats.

This is not to say that the law will not be amended. Right now the statute has no opening for even a temporary replacement, and that means the seat will be vacant for six months. That might be changed but not at the extent of giving Patrick more power in the state party than he already has.


As for other seats, Burr, Martinez, Salazar, and Reid are the obviously vulnerable incumbents. All three have mediocre approval ratings though the later two are much stronger politically than the former two who have never had much popularity in their local parties(especially Martinez). Voinovich will depend both on whether he runs and the national environment though Ryan is a very strong candidate(albeit with a serious skeleton).

Specter, I believe will retire rather than facing a serious primary challenge setting up a macrebe race that I would tilt Republican simply because I think 2010 will be a good GOP year in the Keystone state, especially if Schwartz is the Democratic nominee.  Arizona, Missouri, and Kentucky should all be open and very competitive. In New Hampshire, the Democrats suffer from a weak bench, which was on display this year, and beyond Lynch its unclear if anyone has the profile to take Gregg down though the state is getting away from him. Alabama may also be an open seat, though one that will probably end like a cross between MS-Sen this year and TN-Sen in 2006.

This list is really impossible to know unless we know the environment. The only one I feel confident on is MA, and that's because it is in an insular world of its own.

[© tweed]

what is Ryan's "serious skeleton?"  that he worked for Traficant?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

solid Dem

Arkansas - Lincoln (Arkansas GOP LOL!!)
Connecticut - Dodd (he might retire, but I don't think so.  IIRC that was a ploy so he could transfer money to his prez campaign or something like that)
Delaware - special (Beau Biden?)
Indiana - Bayh (unless Dan Quayle has a kid)
Maryland - Mikulski (old but, yeah)
Massachusetts - special (if Kerry gets the SoS he is reportedly angling for... I heard Patrick & Co. want to change the law so he can appoint Kerry's successor if need be...  the only guy who may have problems winning such a race would be Barney Frank, and he does have statewide ambition, but I doubt he is the guy and I also can't imagine MA sending a Republican to Washington nor would I have a clue who that guy could be.  Joel Mahoney?)
Massachusetts - special II (good shot old Teddy doesn't make it this far...)
New York - Schumer (his for life unless he screws a hooker bareback like bro Spitzer)
North Dakota - Dorgan (gonna be 68 so he probz will run)
Oregon - Wyden
Vermont - Leahy (longest tenured Senate Dem by then, if Kennedy passes and after Biden's resignation?)

potentially competitive Dem tilt

California - Boxer (probably safe but she isn't overly popular.  though I doubt any Republican could take her down, but, who knows)
Colorado - Salazar
Hawaii - Inouye (he's gonna be mad old and Lingle is popular, but would they send a Republican to Washington?  have they ever?  [rhetorical, but maybe it isn't])
Illinois - sorta open but not really (Jackson, Jr. would have trouble winning statewide and I feel like it will be him [as Sam Spade said, Blago is likely to make the worst pick possible].  I also feel as if he will feel pressure to pick a black)
Nevada - Reid (maybe safe but I like to be careful about this kind of stuff.  Reid could be tarred if the Dem government is perceived as a failure, as he is the face of the Dem Senate)
Washington - Murray
Wisconsin - Feingold

likely competitive

Arizona - McCain (I tend to think he will retire, making this perhaps the premier Dem pickup opportunity in an area of the country heading towards them hard.  even if he doesn't, Napolitano could take him, though I have no idea at all if she'd want it)
Florida - Martinez (should be a fun race if the Dems can find someone good.  Cuban-baiting will continue to get harder and harder for the GOP as Castro fades into obscurity, and Martinez can tied to the national GOP as chairman and all, which I don't expect to be rehabilitated by default by 2010)
Missouri - Bond
New Hampshire - Gregg
Ohio - Voinovich (Ryan beats him, imo.  not sure about anyone else)

potentially competitive Republican tilt

Georgia - Iskason (approvals aren't amazing but who knows)
Iowa - Grassley (kinda old, but wins if he runs, which he may well)
Kentucky - Bunning (he has said that he is running again.  maybe he is just senile enough to lose this time around?  alleged homo Mongiardo almost did it last time...)
North Carolina - Burr (cursed seat, remember)
Pennsylvania - Specter (should be mad fun... maybe this belongs in the prior category, but I'll stick it here)

safe Republican

Alabama - Shelby
Alaska - Murkowski (screw Alaska)
Idaho - Crapo ( that name, and always have)
Louisana - Vitter (too few blacks and his repentance has been accepted by the Jesusites as far as I can tell for the hooker-diaper ordeal)
Oklahoma - Coburn (I kind like the dude too )
South Carolina - DeMint
South Dakota - Thune
Utah - Bennett (and he will have my support)

---------------------------------------------------------------------


some of these may be horribly off, but it's just to generate discussion.  I feel like I was a little Dem-biased unintentionally but perhaps the playing field just shakes out that way)

You forgot one
West Virginia-Special Election. Lets face it Robert Byrd is in bad condition and he may not be around this time next year. Given how WV has shifted to the GOP over the years and with the Filibuster on the line I would say this would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP espcially if Shelley Moore Capito(R-WV) runs. Even though I don;t like Byrd that much I think he will be a big loss to the Senate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Top targets for the Dems right now:

Kentucky - Bunning is insane, and Ben Chandler has been waiting for 2010 ever since the close margin in 2004.
Florida - Mel Martinez has middling approval ratings and Democrats did pretty well here this year.
Ohio - Voinovich is probably going to be a big target as well, if he runs again.

Not sure who the Republicans are going after. Salazar, maybe? He seems to have carved out a center-right niche in Colorado, though. Reid, obviously, will be a target, but they lost their golden boy Porter.

Three competitive races if open, but not otherwise:

Missouri - Kit Bond always polls in the mid-50s. He's not going anywhere.
Iowa - Grassley is safe if he runs again, which he says he is doing.
New Hampshire - Judd Gregg seems to be more well-liked than Sununu was.

Also, I would not expect Linda Lingle to win Hawaii. Governors of states dominated by the opposite party rarely win. There's Ben Nelson and who else?

Isn't Kansas up in 2010? Sam Brownback is retiring and I guess Kathleen Sebelius is going to run, although see above re: her chances.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Keep eye on Burr seat. I hope Roy Cooper runs for Senator.

[Dan the Roman]

Keep eye on Burr seat. I hope Roy Cooper runs for Senator.

As an aside to the Kerry situation, I now have it on good authority that he expects to be offered Secretary of State shortly, and people are preparing for a special election in June.

[Erc]

Random thoughts, in no particular order:

Burr's seat is the cursed one, isn't it?

Any forlorn hope that Hoeven jumps in this time around?  And, if so, would he have a shot?

If Inouye should retire, who takes his seat?  Any chance my boy Ed Case can resurrect his political career after his ill-timed bid in 2006?

If Bunning does actually run again, is there any chance of anyone sane primarying the guy?  Who's around on the Republican bench who could take him down...or are we just going to watch yet another failed Anne Northrup bid to take down someone who's obviously going to lose?

I'm not touching PA.  No sir.

Are we so sure Vitter is safe?

If Thune should launch a serious bid for the Presidency, how does that affect the race for the seat?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democrats have decent odds at 60 Senate seats after that election.

[Verily]

Random thoughts, in no particular order:

Burr's seat is the cursed one, isn't it?

Yup. Given the results this year, it's at least not safe. Not sure who the Democrats would run, though; maybe Rep. Heath Shuler.

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I think he'd have a good shot. Whether he jumps in or not, I couldn't say.

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Don't know about Case, but I suspect Rep. Mazie Hirono will run if Inouye retires. And her name alone should carry her through against Case in a primary, I would think. Most of his argument against Akaka was based on age. Linda Lingle is term-limited as governor, though, which Hirono might be more interested in running for, and Lingle could win a Senate race provided the Democrats didn't have a high-profile candidate.

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I think Northup could maybe take down Bunning. He's not entrenched in key areas the way Fletcher was, although Northup is now way past her political sell-by date.

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Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

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Maybe Kennedy can switch parties again to challenge him.

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Stephanie Herseth Sandlin takes an open seat, I would imagine. Maybe she declines to run, though.

[bgwah]

I don't see how Murray could lose. The only Republican who could potentially make it competitive has his eyes on Governor.

[Bacon King]

I don't see how Murray could lose. The only Republican who could potentially make it competitive has his eyes on Governor.

How bout Rossi? lol

[bgwah]

I don't see how Murray could lose. The only Republican who could potentially make it competitive has his eyes on Governor.

How bout Rossi? lol

He's probably done with politics. I doubt he could beat Murray anyway.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It'll be pretty hard for the Democrats to pick up more seats in 2010. Usually, when a party gets big majorities like they have now, the other one picks up seats in the following election. Unless Obama has a spectacular first two years, I doubt the Dems make further gains, so don't get ahead of yourself.

[© tweed]

It'll be pretty hard for the Democrats to pick up more seats in 2010. Usually, when a party gets big majorities like they have now, the other one picks up seats in the following election. Unless Obama has a spectacular first two years, I doubt the Dems make further gains, so don't get ahead of yourself.

the playing field, at least in a generic sense, favors the Democrats.  it had been unprecedented for the same party to get destroyed in two straight election cycles, but it just happened to the Republicans, so the "usually" card doesn't work here anymore.

[cannonia]

California could have a competitive race if Boxer retires or if Arnie runs for the Senate.  I doubt either will happen, but who knows?

Most likely it will be like 1998 and 2004, when Republicans fought like crazy in the primary and found themselves dead broke during the general election.  Prediction: Boxer 55% unless it's a huge republican year.

[Lunar]

Isn't the senate a demotion from the CA Governorship?  Besides, that demotion isn't worth the risk of a potentially embarrassing loss.

I think it's unwise to completely write off Arkansas or Oregon.  If 2010 looks to be a good GOP year, Huckabee and Smith could face uphill battles for the spots.  Smith never really did anything bad as far as I can tell.  He was just a bit too conservative and had the Constitution Party bleeding votes from him as he went further and further left.t  I doubt Smith would do it, but it's not like he screwed up.

Lieberman could resign sometime too... it'd be a big "FU" to the Democrats, since he'd be replaced by a Republican. 

Hmmm

[Mr.Phips]

It'll be pretty hard for the Democrats to pick up more seats in 2010. Usually, when a party gets big majorities like they have now, the other one picks up seats in the following election. Unless Obama has a spectacular first two years, I doubt the Dems make further gains, so don't get ahead of yourself.

Republicans picked up pretty much every seat possible in this Senate batch in 2004 so they have more seats to defend in 2010.  This will likely be like a 1962, 1970, 1978 or 1982 midterm election in the Senate races where the Senate stays pretty much the same despite one party holding the White House because the out party has more seats to defend. 

[cannonia]

Isn't the senate a demotion from the CA Governorship?  Besides, that demotion isn't worth the risk of a potentially embarrassing loss.

California has term limits.  I'm not sure how Arnie's partial first term counts toward that.

[phk]

If we can get McConnell within 6% with a crappy candidate and a black Muslim terrorist at the top of the ticket, we can take Bunning's seat.

Bunning was within 1% with Bush at the top in 2004 (pretty much what saved him was the pro-GOP mood of 2004). 2010 could be a pro-GOP year but not as much as 2004 and Bush's coattails cannot save him. He's the premier Dem pickup opportunity.

[Brittain33]

I think Northup could maybe take down Bunning. He's not entrenched in key areas the way Fletcher was, although Northup is now way past her political sell-by date.

The factors that held her back in the governor's race still apply.