2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Linus Van Pelt]

Bergmanson says that he witnessed the US government planning the 9/11 attacks.

I don't know much about Boss.

No, you've got Boss and Bergmanson mixed up. Boss is the 9/11 truther (http://www.jeffbossforgovernor.com/) while Bergmanson (http://www.bergmansonforgovernor.com/) is a former mayor of Glen Ridge who from his web site would appear to be sort of at the libertarian end of the Democratic party on both economic and social questions.

[Meeker]

Random question about New Jersey ballots: Does the column/line format hurt candidates towards the end of the ballot at all? It seems to me like a lot of people might be tempted to split their ticket at some point to avoid the feeling of being a party hack and voting exactly with the party line. Maybe that's just a Washington thing (not to sound arrogant or imply that one is better than the other; there's just different political cultures regarding party affiliation and loyalty in different parts of the country...)

[Franzl]

This Boss guy is absolutely hillarious. How much of the vote might he get?

[Rowan]

Honestly, it might help some candidates more than hurt. For example, I have no idea who the bottom candidates are, but since they are running on the line with Christie I will end up voting for them. Having "the line" is extremely beneficial.

[Rowan]

Farleigh Dickinson NJ GOP Primary

Christie 54%
Lonegan 30%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/dividedr/tab.html

[Verily]

Honestly, it might help some candidates more than hurt. For example, I have no idea who the bottom candidates are, but since they are running on the line with Christie I will end up voting for them. Having "the line" is extremely beneficial.

Amusing. My rule is to never vote the line at the bottom. They're always the trashiest, most corrupt candidates. You don't get nutters running for local office off the line; they always run for Senate or Governor or President.

Anyway, I think I may not vote for any candidate on the line this time around. Bergmanson seems like a good protest vote home, and for local elections I'm voting for a non-line slate for mayor and city councilman at-large. Of course "the line" is on Column 4 in Bergen, IIRC (maybe Column 3, I'll find out tomorrow), so it's not the first group listed on the ballot.

[Zarn]

This Boss guy is absolutely hillarious. How much of the vote might he get?

In 2008, he had 639 out of 3,868,237 votes from NJ for president. That's 8th place out of 10 candidates.

For the US Senate, he managed 10,345 out of 3,482,445 votes. That's 6th out of 7 candidates.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Random question about New Jersey ballots: Does the column/line format hurt candidates towards the end of the ballot at all? It seems to me like a lot of people might be tempted to split their ticket at some point to avoid the feeling of being a party hack and voting exactly with the party line. Maybe that's just a Washington thing (not to sound arrogant or imply that one is better than the other; there's just different political cultures regarding party affiliation and loyalty in different parts of the country...)

Helps, 1000%, without a question. People who vote in New Jersey primaries are typically party hacks and proud of it.

Only a few counties have situationally competitive "secondary" lines—typically renegade Democrats will try in Essex, Bergen, and Hudson while renegade Republicans will try in Bergen and Passaic.

Elsewhere, in a generic battle between "Organizational Candidate A" and "Non-organizational Candidate B," the former will reliably trounce the latter by about 80–20 or better.  No kidding, either.

Of course "the line" is on Column 4 in Bergen, IIRC (maybe Column 3, I'll find out tomorrow), so it's not the first group listed on the ballot.

I believe they're required by law to do random drawings for ballot positioning (regarding who gets what line).  It's never hard to find the organizational line though, because there's generally only one "full" line with candidates for every office.

One famous exception is Tom Kean's bid for Governor in 1977. He was not able to get the Bergen County organizational line, so his team (running a terrific campaign) put together a full slate of candidates for Bergen because the county was so strategically important. It turned out that Kean proved popular in Bergen and his line actually won LD 40, sweeping out incumbents running on the official line.  A terrific interview with one of those winners, former Attorney General Cary Edwards, is here and makes for some terrific insider reading.

[Ebowed]

Among Boss' goals:

16. NO MORE FLUORIDE IN THE WATER SYSTEM

Also, he has an AOL email address.  And of course: "I Witnessed a family member high up in the NSA planning the 9/11 attack."

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not going to do a prediction for this race. I have no idea what to expect turnout wise though I'm hoping (as a Christie supporter) that it is on the higher end.

A small part of me wants to see a Lonegan win. Now before certain people here go crazy, understand that it's a) a small part of me and b) I'm not that serious. Anyway, I'd be interested to see a Lonegan win only because I want to see that it's possible for the NJ GOP to completely self destruct. Then again, an even smaller part of me kind of wants to see it happen because it would be absolutely hilarious to see this guy somehow win the General. Now, I totally believe that there would need to be some divine intervention for that to take place but just imagine for a second a Lonegan win in November. I'd be at a total loss for words. Total loss. Now that would prove that NJ voters really were serious about hating one of their elected officials...

Anyway, I'm actually going to venture up to Lonegan's party tomorrow night for some laughs. I don't know what will be more amusing - hearing him and his supporters if they lose or hearing them if they win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'll do a prediction.

Christie 58%
Lonegan 39%
Merkt ~3%

[Rowan]

Here is mine:

Christie 56%
Lonegan 41%

[paul718]

I just found out both are in favor of legalizing sports gambling in Atlantic City. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm gonna go out on a limb with this one and hope for the best for Merkt...

Christie: 57%
Lonegan: 38%
Merkt: 5%

I just got back from voting, by the way, and gladly cast my vote for Merkt.

I don't think 5% is entirely out of the question, having been endorsed by one of the Jersey Guy losers and considering that the primary is otherwise uncompetitive.

[Keystone Phil]

I just got back from voting, by the way, and gladly cast my vote for Merkt.

I know three people voting for Merkt. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be counting on getting much more than that. 

In all seriousness, though, I'll just guess that Merkt gets 3%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I just got back from voting, by the way, and gladly cast my vote for Merkt.

I know three people voting for Merkt. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be counting on getting much more than that. 

In all seriousness, though, I'll just guess that Merkt gets 3%.

Which is sad.  Merkt is, hands down, the most qualified of the three to serve as governor.

[Keystone Phil]

I just got back from voting, by the way, and gladly cast my vote for Merkt.

I know three people voting for Merkt. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll be counting on getting much more than that. 

In all seriousness, though, I'll just guess that Merkt gets 3%.

Which is sad.  Merkt is, hands down, the most qualified of the three to serve as governor.

Yeah, so I've heard. A friend of mine is involved (if you can call it that) in his campaign (again, if you can call it that...).

They thought Merkt would take off when the Christie "Pay to Play" stuff came out (by the way, guys, that was the "big scandal" I hyped and I only hyped it because my friend made it seem like a much bigger deal than it is). They figured it would damage Christie so badly that he'd get out or totally sink in the polls, leaving it to be a Lonegan vs. Merkt race with the establishment getting behind the sane candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Just feeding into my concerns about the lack of motivation among Christie backers...

The New York Times is reporting that only twenty supporters showed up at a Christie campaign rally this weekend. Now this could have been some meet and greet at a house party or something where twenty people showing up is normal but if it was some GOTV rally, well, that's far from impressive.

[Brittain33]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

My parents support Christie but aren't going to vote in the primary because "he's going to win" and they have better things to do. For one of them, it would mean driving to a home precinct 30 minutes away. Oh, then she remembered that she's registered as a independent and can't vote in the primary. (Is that even true?) My father's a solid Republican but not too well-informed on the finer points of politics, e.g. he told me he thinks Sotomayor won't get nominated because "lots of people" have trouble with her, blah blah "Latino business", and that she wants to make law, not interpret law. Which tells me he read the Wall Street Journal op-ed page and takes it as the voice of authority. He didn't respond when I told him, it may well be lots of people "have problems" with her, but she's going to get confirmed. Then when I asked him his opinion on the Lilly Ledbetter case and explained the Republican ruling on it to show the vagueness of "making law" vs. "interpreting law," he changed the subject to Obama's flagrant abuse of AF1.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ is reporting that State Sen. Marcia Karrow's (R-Hunterdon) polling has her trailing her primary challenger, Assemblyman Mike Doherty (R-Warren). If she loses, and if Doherty's chief of staff wins the primary for the open assembly seat, Hunterdon will be shut out of the state legislature for the first time in state history.

[Keystone Phil]

Word is that turnout (so far) is the lowest it has ever been in an NJ Gubernatorial primary in 25 years.

Things better turn around in the evening...

My parents support Christie but aren't going to vote in the primary because "he's going to win" and they have better things to do.

Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

This attitude may make this a very close race and maybe even a Lonegan win. If what I posted above is true, this is going to be a bad night.

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I'm pretty sure that's not true.

[Lunar]

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks, Lunar. 

[Keystone Phil]

That's why we have so many Independents. 

Well, the fact that you need to fill out some stupid special registration if you want to register with a party helps as well.

[Zarn]

Just got back. Obviously, I voted for Christie.

Voting in a primary makes me feel like a party hack, though. Haha.

Since there were no others, I voted the line. I'm not going to do a write-in for a primary like Rambo for State Committee. You know what? That's funny. I should of done that.