2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[East Coast Republican]

Whatever the results, the Cprzine spin on the poll numbers will disgust me.  His whole campaign disgusts me actually but not being able to poke fun at themselves last week (Christie's 'news conference) shows how desperate they really are to take ANYTHING and run with it.  I expect no less from them after the release of the Quinnipiac poll tomorrow.

I hope the poll doesn't give Corzine a genuine reason to get excited (only down by 1-4% in September that sort of thing).

[Tender Branson]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

[Nhoj]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

eh i dont think corzine has improved his own image enough to make it a tie but i can see him being a couple points closer to Christie.

[Rowan]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

It was Christie +9. I don't count the three-way numbers.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.

The last poll already had it Christie+6.

I expect something tie-ish (1-2% Christie lead maybe).

I should clarify that I was talking about the two-way polling, which had Christie +9 in the last go around.

The three-way might have Christie +3.

[Eraserhead]

Since we are having fun playing the guessing game, I'll say Christie +5 in the head-to-head and Christie +3 in the three-way. Also, if it is that close, Republicans should feel free to start panicking (oh wait... some of you already seem to be doing that ).

[Rowan]

Save Jersey is reporting that the Quinnipiac poll will show:

Christie 47%
Corzine 37%
Daggett 9%

http://blog.savejersey.com/2009/08/31/breaking-christie-leads-corzine-by-10points-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-2.aspx

[Ronnie]

!!!

[Mr.Phips]

If Christie can make the kind of mistakes he has been making in the last month and still be well ahead in this race, then the climate has really turned against Democrats. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Christie can make the kind of mistakes he has been making in the last month and still be well ahead in this race, then the climate has really turned against Democrats. 

Or, specifically, the New Jersey electorate has really turned against Corzine. Had he been a more competent Governor, Christie wouldn't be up at all.

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

[cinyc]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

The last FDU poll in very late June had Christie up by 6 - so assuming the leaked numbers are of the same two-way poll they did in late June, the FDU result is largely unchanged (Christie -1).  That pretty much matches the Quinnipiac trend if the leaked Quinnipiac numbers are the two-way poll numbers (Christie +1 from early August).  Quinnipiac hasn't put the poll up on their site yet (nor has FDU).

[Tender Branson]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

The last FDU poll in very late June had Christie up by 6 - so assuming the leaked numbers are of the same two-way poll they did in late June, the FDU result is largely unchanged (Christie -1).  That pretty much matches the Quinnipiac trend if the leaked Quinnipiac numbers are the two-way poll numbers (Christie +1 from early August).  Quinnipiac hasn't put the poll up on their site yet (nor has FDU).

The Quinnipiac numbers are confirmed by PolitickerNJ and it's the 3-way-number. Christie is up by 4 compared with their previous numbers.

[cinyc]

Plus: A new FDU poll coming out today will show a 5-point Christie lead.

The last FDU poll in very late June had Christie up by 6 - so assuming the leaked numbers are of the same two-way poll they did in late June, the FDU result is largely unchanged (Christie -1).  That pretty much matches the Quinnipiac trend if the leaked Quinnipiac numbers are the two-way poll numbers (Christie +1 from early August).  Quinnipiac hasn't put the poll up on their site yet (nor has FDU).

The Quinnipiac numbers are confirmed by PolitickerNJ and it's the 3-way-number. Christie is up by 4 compared with their previous numbers.

Is PolitickerNJ's confirmation in the now-blocked Wally Edge article, which claims Quinnipiac says Obama's NJ approval is down to 51%-43%?

This has to be a terrible time to poll, BTW - last two weeks of summer when many are away and few are paying attention.  I'm not sure I'd put a heck of a lot of faith in these polls, regardless of outcome.

[fezzyfestoon]

Considering Christie's lack of tangible retaliation to the constant Corzine attack ads, I'm inclined to assume he's biding his time and saving his cash.  Either that or the "Clueless Chris Christie" name may be appropriate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Considering Christie's lack of tangible retaliation to the constant Corzine attack ads, I'm inclined to assume he's biding his time and saving his cash.  Either that or the "Clueless Chris Christie" name may be appropriate.

Christie just returned to the airwaves about a week ago following a summer of one-sided Corzine spending.  (So long as you don't count the RGA, of course.)

Anyway, a look inside the Quinnipiac poll shows you why Corzine moved backwards over the last poll...

• Corzine's job approval is now down to 34–60, down from 36–58.
  
• 96 percent of New Jersey voters say government corruption is a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" problem and 50 percent associate Democrats more with corruption; Independent voters blaming Democrats more than Republicans 51 to 16 percent.
• Independent voters say, 59 - 34 percent, that the ads tying Chris Christie to George W. Bush are unfair.
• Similarly, voters call the ads regarding Christie's loan to a staffer unfair, 49 - 43 percent. This issue may have backfired—fewer voters (47 - 45 percent) view criticism of Corzine's loan to labor leader Katz unfair.
• 51 percent of voters do not find Jon Corzine to be "honest and trustworthy."
• The few voters (31%) who see the campaign for Governor as unusually nasty blame Corzine for it by about 2 to 1.

The poll also shows that voters want Republicans to control the State Assembly, 46 - 40 percent.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Considering Christie's lack of tangible retaliation to the constant Corzine attack ads, I'm inclined to assume he's biding his time and saving his cash.  Either that or the "Clueless Chris Christie" name may be appropriate.

Christie only won the nomination because the New Jersey Republican organization carried him.

The plan is to keep him under wraps as much as possible and let Corzine defeat himself (i.e. a vote for Christie is a vote against Corzine).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and in case anyone was paying attention, ELEC was deadlocked on moving the date of the debate per Corzine's request. We're still on track for early October.

[Rowan]

Oh, and in case anyone was paying attention, ELEC was deadlocked on moving the date of the debate per Corzine's request. We're still on track for early October.

And Corzine oh so generously agreed to two debates, no matter the decision.

[Rowan]

NJN drops request to move debate. It will be October 1.

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/32800/njn-drops-debate-delay-request

[Eraserhead]

The Q poll is good news for Christie. I'll admit to being a bit surprised by the result.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Read into this as much or as little as you want, but New Jersey's third-ranking Democrat made a last minute decision to not seek re-election.

Assembly Speaker Roberts to step down

Good government advocates need not be worried, cause he's being replaced by a thoughtful, independent voice on the ballot!  Yes sir, totally inde... oh, what's that?  You say who is going to replace him?  Oh, oh... nevermind, then:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

District 5 includes the entirety of Camden and is one of the safest Democratic districts in the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Did Norcross put a horse head in his bed or something?

[YankeeFan007]

Quinipiac Poll didn't look good for Corzine, but the Rasmussen and Fairleigh weren't too bad.  This election is a complete toss up.  Corzine needs to apply a Route 4-17 strategy to win New Jersey.  If he can pay some college kids from Paterson, Ramapo, Fairleigh and Bergen to go to shopping stores on route 4 and 17, I think he will win.   He needs to run up the vote in Paterson, Teaneck, Fairlawn, Fort Lee and Hackensack and surrounding towns like Paramus and Wood Ridge.  Repubs are going to run up the votes in south east New Jersey and Northwest New Jersey.  No point in Corzine going there.   Just put limited resources in Route 95 cities as well.   Start going to minority neighborhoods and college campuses.   If he can do that than I don't see him losing to a Repub in Liberal state.   

Although I have to admit, the Republicans have placed themselves in a better position in New Jersey.  They will probably win alot of state and town seats.

[Verily]

Quinipiac Poll didn't look good for Corzine, but the Rasmussen and Fairleigh weren't too bad.  This election is a complete toss up.  Corzine needs to apply a Route 4-17 strategy to win New Jersey.  If he can pay some college kids from Paterson, Ramapo, Fairleigh and Bergen to go to shopping stores on route 4 and 17, I think he will win.   He needs to run up the vote in Paterson, Teaneck, Fairlawn, Fort Lee and Hackensack and surrounding towns like Paramus and Wood Ridge.  Repubs are going to run up the votes in south east New Jersey and Northwest New Jersey.  No point in Corzine going there.   Just put limited resources in Route 95 cities as well.   Start going to minority neighborhoods and college campuses.   If he can do that than I don't see him losing to a Repub in Liberal state.   

Although I have to admit, the Republicans have placed themselves in a better position in New Jersey.  They will probably win alot of state and town seats.

Trust me, Corzine's turnout problem is not in the ultra-Dem towns in central Bergen. (I live in Englewood, the most Democratic of the Hackensack-Teaneck-Englewood-Fort Lee chain.)

There's a lot of enthusiasm for Weinberg as the Lt Governor candidate, at least among people who will actually vote (few, but that's true everywhere). Not huge enthusiasm, of course, but he should at least be more concerned about turnout in areas that do not have such an advantage (Hudson Co., inner Essex and Union Cos., Plainfield, Trenton, Camden, Middlesex Co., etc.)

But campaigning in the malls would hit the Republican towns of northern and southwestern Bergen as much or more than it would the Democratic towns of central Bergen, southeastern Bergen and the Northern Valley. After all, it's the rich white voters from Saddle River who go to the mall every weekend, not the poor black voters from Englewood's west side.

Also, Paramus voted for McCain and Bush (at least in 2004, probably for Gore in 2000). Not a good town for Corzine to look for high turnout in.