Regional shifts in the HoR
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  Regional shifts in the HoR
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Padfoot
padfoot714
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« on: November 09, 2008, 05:40:00 AM »

As defined by the Census Bureau there are 8 major regions in the US.  In the 110th Congress the regional breakdown of House districts was as follows:

Region           Dems      GOP          Total       States
New England    21              1              22       CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT
Mid-Atlantic       47            23              70       DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA
Midwest            34            35              69       MI, IL, IN, OH, WI
Great Plains      16            15              31       IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD
South Atlantic   29            42              71       FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV
South Central   32            42              74       AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX
Mountain          11            17              28       AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
Pacific               46            24              70       AK, CA, HI, OR, WA
Total               236           199             435    

Here are the changes for the 111th Congress (current status as determined by CNN):

Region               Dems      GOP          Total       Undecided
New England     22(+1)         0              22            0
Mid-Atlantic        53(+6)       17              70            0
Midwest             39(+5)       29              69            1 (OH-15)
Great Plains         15         16(+1)          31            0
South Atlantic    33(+4)       37              71            1 (VA-5)
South Central      30            42              74            2 (LA2, LA-4)
Mountain           17(+6)       11              28             0
Pacific                  46            22              70             2 (AK-AL, CA-4)
Total                   255          174           435            6

Democrats now have complete control over New England after defeating Shays.  It appears that even the staunchest GOP moderates can no longer survive here.  (At least not in the House.)

The GOP collapse in NY gave the Dems half of their gain in the Mid-Atlantic along with pickups in MD, PA, and NJ.  Open seats were the GOP's biggest problem here.  And the ugly GOP primary in MD-1 was most unhelpful.

In the Midwest Obama's coattails in his home state were a little disappointing as Illinois Republicans yielded only one seat.  Obama was more helpful in MI and OH where the Democrats picked up four seats, two in each state.  Democrats now control a majority of the MI delegation and are poised to control OH as well if uncounted absentee and provisional ballots are favorable to Kilory in OH-15.

The Democrat's best region was the Mountain West IMO where they picked up 6 seats out of only 28 total and they swept the New Mexico delegation.  Democrats will be vulnerable in ID-1 and CO-4 where abrasive incumbents aided Democratic victories.  However, the Dems will probably go after Dean Heller again in NV-2.

In the South Atlantic the GOP reclaimed FL-16 only to suffer losses in five other districts and it appears as if VA-5 may make six.  Democrats are now within striking distance to claim this region in 2010 and their future prospects are being aided by rapidly changing demographics.  Close calls for the GOP in South Carolina and Florida may end up being losses in 2010.

The most disappointing region for the Democrats was probably South Central where it appears they may end up with a 1 seat loss if the GOP wins the LA-4 special election.  Cazayoux's defeat was especially disheartening even if it was expected.  This will probably be a rough region for the Democrats again in 2010 as they have several vulnerable seats and little pick-up prospects.

Republicans also regained a one seat edge in the Plains region by defeating Nancy Boyda in KS-2 and managing to fend of challengers in a handful of competitive races.  The Democrats will certainly be looking to come back in this region though after a handful of narrow losses.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2008, 02:23:08 PM »

For interest, here's how things were in 1977:

Of the 90% states, Texas was the only state that wasn't actually 100% (23/25, or 92%)

And 2009 (projected)Sad
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