White swing from Kerry to Obama

[Angel of Death]

National      41->43 (+2)

Hawaii         58->70 (+12)
Indiana         34->45 (+11)
Vermont         58->68 (+10)
Delaware      45->53 (+8)
Colorado      42->50 (+8)
North Carolina      27->35 (+8)
Oregon         50->57 (+7)
Wisconsin      47->54 (+7)
Michigan      44->51 (+7)
North Dakota      35->42 (+7)
Virginia      32->39 (+7)
Utah         24->31 (+7)
District of Columbia   80->86 (+6)
Montana         39->45 (+6)
Kansas         34->40 (+6)
Nebraska      33->39 (+6)
Maine         53->58 (+5)
California      47->52 (+5)
New Hampshire      50->54 (+4)
South Dakota      37->41 (+4)
Idaho         29->33 (+4)
Wyoming         28->32 (+4)
South Carolina      22->26 (+4)
Washington      52->55 (+3)
Minnesota      50->53 (+3)
New York      49->52 (+3)
Illinois      48->51 (+3)
New Jersey      46->49 (+3)
Pennsylvania      45->48 (+3)
Maryland      44->47 (+3)
Iowa         49->51 (+2)
Ohio         44->46 (+2)
Nevada         43->45 (+2)
Rhode Island      57->58 (+1)
Kentucky      35->36 (+1)
Texas         25->26 (+1)
Massachusetts      59->59 (nc)
Connecticut      51->51 (nc)
Florida         42->42 (nc)
Missouri      42->42 (nc)
Tennessee      34->34 (nc)
Alaska         33->33 (nc)
Oklahoma      29->29 (nc)
Georgia         23->23 (nc)
New Mexico      43->42 (-1)
West Virginia      42->41 (-1)
Arizona         41->40 (-1)
Mississippi      14->11 (-3)
Arkansas      36->30 (-6)
Alabama         19->10 (-9)
Louisiana      24->14 (-10)

Source: CNN exit polls

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Nice. I was hoping somebody would do this.

[Lief]

With maps:

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'm surprised we didn't get a swing towards Obama among CT whites.

Blacks made up twice as much of the electorate as they did in '04 there though (which explains the epic blowout).

[Sibboleth]

I don't much trust exit polls, beyond basic patterns anyway. Still, breaking things up...

Huge change:

Hawaii         58->70 (+12)
Indiana         34->45 (+11)
Vermont         58->68 (+10)

Significant change:

Delaware      45->53 (+8)
Colorado      42->50 (+8)
North Carolina      27->35 (+8)
Oregon         50->57 (+7)
Wisconsin      47->54 (+7)
Michigan      44->51 (+7)
North Dakota      35->42 (+7)
Virginia      32->39 (+7)
Utah         24->31 (+7)
District of Columbia   80->86 (+6)
Montana         39->45 (+6)
Kansas         34->40 (+6)
Nebraska      33->39 (+6)
Maine         53->58 (+5)

Obvious change but not especially dramatic:

California      47->52 (+5)
New Hampshire      50->54 (+4)
South Dakota      37->41 (+4)
Idaho         29->33 (+4)
Wyoming         28->32 (+4)
South Carolina      22->26 (+4)
Washington      52->55 (+3)
Minnesota      50->53 (+3)
New York      49->52 (+3)
Illinois      48->51 (+3)
New Jersey      46->49 (+3)
Pennsylvania      45->48 (+3)
Maryland      44->47 (+3)

No significant change:

Iowa         49->51 (+2)
Ohio         44->46 (+2)
Nevada         43->45 (+2)
Rhode Island      57->58 (+1)
Kentucky      35->36 (+1)
Texas         25->26 (+1)
Massachusetts      59->59 (nc)
Connecticut      51->51 (nc)
Florida         42->42 (nc)
Missouri      42->42 (nc)
Tennessee      34->34 (nc)
Alaska         33->33 (nc)
Oklahoma      29->29 (nc)
Georgia         23->23 (nc)
New Mexico      43->42 (-1)
West Virginia      42->41 (-1)
Arizona         41->40 (-1)

Significant fall:

Mississippi      14->11 (-3)
Arkansas      36->30 (-6)

Collapse:

Alabama         19->10 (-9)
Louisiana      24->14 (-10)

[Sibboleth]

You know, I have a hard time beliving that the white Presidential Dem vote in Alabama actually halved... the swings in the north of the state were big (again) but not destroy-all-life-on-earth or anything. Though maybe things happend elsewhere in the state that were disguised by an increase in black turnout. Possible actually. Anyone [qm].

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     I am surprised by NM here.

[Senator Sbane]

     I am surprised by NM here.

Look at NV too. Really illustrates the power of the latino vote.

[Vasall des Midas]

Iowa and Alabama - and to a much lesser extent New Mexico and Nevada - don't really square with actual election results.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Iowa and Alabama - and to a much lesser extent New Mexico and Nevada - don't really square with actual election results.

Yeah especially Iowa. How can Obama's gain among whites be less than his gain statewide in Iowa?

[BushArizona]

uh, I think exit polls are a bit inaccurate.

In AL, Obama probably got more whites then the exit polls said.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Iowa and Alabama - and to a much lesser extent New Mexico and Nevada - don't really square with actual election results.

Yeah especially Iowa. How can Obama's gain among whites be less than his gain statewide in Iowa?

considering that virtually the entire electorate of Iowa is white, and the state swung 5 points, I have a very, very hard time believing that the white vote could only have swung 2 points, unless Obama's non-white vote increased something like 200% over Kerry's.

[elcorazon]

exit polls are just that - POLLS.  They are  not OFFICIAL RESULTS or anything.  They are merely samples of voters.  Not sure how accurate the samples are either.  I think they don't even include a full cross section, given that they are trying to create projections on election night as much as determine long term issues.

There's no reason that any of these results couldn't be off by 3% or so, and that a couple are off even more...