Walt Minnick/Ron Wyden vs Lincoln Chafee/Mark Kirk
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Walt Minnick/Ron Wyden vs Lincoln Chafee/Mark Kirk
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Author Topic: Walt Minnick/Ron Wyden vs Lincoln Chafee/Mark Kirk  (Read 813 times)
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 09, 2008, 08:24:01 PM »

Battle of relativley unknown centrists, who wins?

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Nixon in '80
nixon1980
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2008, 05:40:27 PM »

I'd say Chafee based on name recognition and experience... also, 7% turnout.
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bhouston79
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2008, 10:46:23 PM »

I think the Walt Minnick/Ron Wyden ticket would win because many Southern Evangelicals would abandon the GOP if they picked a socially liberal candidate like Lincoln Chafee.  As a result, states like West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe even Texas would all swing to the Democrats.  With Wyden being a popular Senator from Oregon, the Minnick/Wyden ticket would have no trouble sweeping the west coast.  In addition, Walt Minnick would compete well in the Rocky Mountain states due to his western roots.  They would carry Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada easily; and they would probably squeak out wins in Montana and Idaho.  And while a Chafee/Kirk ticket would perform better in the Northeast than typical Republicans have in the past few election cycles, he still couldn't win many electoral votes there.  At best, a Chafee/Kirk ticket may win NH, and 1 of Maine's congressional districts.  Chafee lost his last statewide election in Rhode Island in 2006, and I doubt this year would be any different.

Overall, the map would have largely resembled this year's electoral map with the exception that the Democrats would have also carried West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe even Texas.  The GOP may have flipped NH under this scenario, but that's not even a given.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2008, 04:33:56 PM »

I think the Walt Minnick/Ron Wyden ticket would win because many Southern Evangelicals would abandon the GOP if they picked a socially liberal candidate like Lincoln Chafee.  As a result, states like West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe even Texas would all swing to the Democrats.  With Wyden being a popular Senator from Oregon, the Minnick/Wyden ticket would have no trouble sweeping the west coast.  In addition, Walt Minnick would compete well in the Rocky Mountain states due to his western roots.  They would carry Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada easily; and they would probably squeak out wins in Montana and Idaho.  And while a Chafee/Kirk ticket would perform better in the Northeast than typical Republicans have in the past few election cycles, he still couldn't win many electoral votes there.  At best, a Chafee/Kirk ticket may win NH, and 1 of Maine's congressional districts.  Chafee lost his last statewide election in Rhode Island in 2006, and I doubt this year would be any different.

Overall, the map would have largely resembled this year's electoral map with the exception that the Democrats would have also carried West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe even Texas.  The GOP may have flipped NH under this scenario, but that's not even a given.

I think The Deep South, TN, NC, and maybe VA and FL switch. Baiscally, it would look like a pre-1960's map with today's EC.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2008, 05:04:22 PM »

Wyden wouldn't be on a national ticket, he has a speech impediment.
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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2008, 05:08:24 PM »

Wyden wouldn't be on a national ticket, he has a speech impediment.

Joe Biden stuttered until he entered college
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