Mexican state and local elections 2009

[ag]

PAN leader, German Martinez, has resigned.

[jaichind]

It seems seat discribution should be.

PRI, 237; PAN, 143; PRD, 71; PVEM, 21; PT, 13; PANAL, 9; C, 6.

It also appears the 8% rule is the seat share cannot exceed 8% beyond the total vote share out of the all 2%+ vote share parties.  So for PRI which won 36.68% plus half of 0.41% would be 36.885%.  PSD got 1.03%, Write-Ins 0.18% NULL vote 5.39%.  Sum of these three are 6.6%.  So 36.885% divided by 93.4% (100% minus 6.6%) is 39.4914%.  The add 8% gets 47.4914%.  47.4914% of 500 gets 237.457 or 237 seats. 
It also seems PVEM got 4 seats via FPTP so it got 17 PR seats to be 21. 
237+21 for PRI+PVEM is 258 which is a majority.  143 for PAN is 7 seats less than 2003 but better than 121 for 1997.  PRI's 237 is almost same as 1997 of 239.  This is quite an accomplishment since in 1997 the PANAL vote which is 3.41% (3.6% after we strip out the NULL vote) in 2009 most likely voted for the PRI. 
The PRI+PVEM majority plus PAN falling below 166 (one third to block overriding of prez veto) makes the PAN regime look more like a lame duck. The PAN's problem is that it will have to rely on the PRD) if it wants to uphold Calderón's presidential veto.  The likelihood of PRD support for the PAN is remote: the PRD is far more likely to either side with the PRI or to become more militant. The PRD itself is horribly split: one outcome of the mid-terms is that the radical party faction, led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has emerged the stronger.

[ag]

Lopez faction has only emerged the stronger in the capital. It was badly hit in the other states PRD governs, especially in Zacatecas, where Gov. Amailia Garcia simply mauled Lopez's top lieutenant, Sen. Monreal. The current PRD leadership, actually, seems bent on expelling Lopez from the party.

[ag]

I believe, PAN had 149 seats in 2003, so it would be down 6 (we still have to see the final redistribution and the final count - remember, we are still missing about 2000 booths w/ errors in the initial report, and the overall count will be affected by all sorts of legal issues: usually they annul at least some of the booths).

The presidential veto in Mexico is less of an issue: it is rarely applied and it's applicability is comparatively limited, anyway. Nor is party discipline in Congress very strong.

[ag]

And, BTW, the thing w/ veto (I should have realized earlier) doesn't matter also because PAN still has the largest faction in the Senate (there the elections are every 6 years, not due till 2012)

[jaichind]

Hi AG, any thoughts on PVEM.  My understanding is that it is run as a famliy business where one family seems to run the party.  Seems like a lot of its organization are made up of ex-PRI guys.  Not sure how "Green" this party is.  I read somewhere it got kicked out of some world Green organization for being for the death penalty.  Not sure how and why this party would get 5-7% of the vote the last few election cycles.

Also you said you would tell us your partisan alignment.  It seems to me that you will never vote for PRD, could vote for the PRI based on the candidate (if it from the non-dinosour wing), and generally vote for the PAN. You also will support 4th party candidates if you like the candidate.  I may be wrong but this is the feeling I have based on what I read on this thread.

[jaichind]

Looks like IFE has PRI 241, PAN 147, PRD, 72, PVEM 17, PT 9, PANAL 8, C 6. 

I think when it used the 8% rule, it counted 4 of the joint PRI-PVEM winners as PVEM, but in the final breakdown counted those 4 as PRI.

 If PRI and PVEM were in a perfect alliance and their interests perfectly aligned, one way to get around the 8% rule would be to run more PVEM candidates as joint PRI-PVEM allaince candidates.  This way, PVEM will have more FPTP winners and PRI less.  This way the 8% rule will take away less seats from PRI and "gift" seats to PVEM.  Of course if the two parties had their interests perfectly aligned they might as well merge.  But as seperetely entities they might catch votes who otherwise will not vote PRI but in reality add to the PRI alliance.  In this case the two parties does not have perfectly aligned interets anyway.

[Harry Hayfield]

I've just been emailed by a friend I have in Mexico who has told me (in slightly broken English) that if turnout is less than 80%, the election is invalidated. Can someone tell me what the turnout rule relates to?

[ag]

I've just been emailed by a friend I have in Mexico who has told me (in slightly broken English) that if turnout is less than 80%, the election is invalidated. Can someone tell me what the turnout rule relates to?

I am almost certain, all it relates to is some sort of an urban legend. To the best of my knowledge, if out of 70,000,000 voters 1 shows up and casts a valid vote, s/he determines the winner. The 44%+ turnout was substantially above expected (the latest pre-election polls suggested under 40%) and I do not believe there has ever been an election in Mexico w/ a turnout above 80%

[ag]

Looks like IFE has PRI 241, PAN 147, PRD, 72, PVEM 17, PT 9, PANAL 8, C 6. 

Have they finished the IFE session? I can't find the announcement.

The official vote count stands at:
PRI 12,821,487 votes
PAN 9,723,537 votes
PRD 4,231,342 votes
PVEM 2,264510 votes
PT 1,268, 8329 votes
Panal 1,187,902 votes
Convergencia 855,052 votes
PSD 358,758 votes
Invalid votes 1,876,629
Turnout 44.81%

[ag]

Hi AG, any thoughts on PVEM. 

Also you said you would tell us your partisan alignment. 

1. You are quite right on PVEM. They are about as green, as Russia's Liberal Democratic party is liberal or democratic (I happen to be in Russia right now, hence the comparison). They are, indeed, a family concern of the more unpleasant kind. The one supporter I happen to know is a Pemex lawyer responsible for whitewashing ecological disasters.

2. I guess, you are also pretty spot on my political preferences. I would say, I, mostly, vote PAN, and I may vote for a PRIista I like (in fact, I have). My votes for the minor parties are not so much based on preference for a candidate, as on the desire to help them keep their registration. I could see myself voting for a peredista under the right circumstances , but these have never happened

For a full ranking, I guess, PAN>(PSD)>Panal>PRI>PRD>PT>Convergencia>PVEM

[ag]

So, IFE has spoken. Of the 200 "plurinominales" (PR seats), PAN gets 73, PRI gets 53, PRD gets 32, PVEM gets 18, PT gets 10, Panal gets 8 and Convergencia gets 6. So, unless I am mistaken PAN gets 143 seats, PRD gets 71, and Panal total is truly 8. PRI has 241 if you count as PRI every single joint candidate of PRI and PVEM (which is not quite the case), and together PRI/PVEM have 259 - a majority. PT and Convergencia together have 19 seats, and the total for the "left" is 90: not too good by any means.

Note, that this is still preliminary: parties have the right to sue to Trife, and they will.

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share of valid votes 2006 to 2009 it seem to be

Right:     PAN               33.63% in 2006 to 29.57%
Center:  PRI+PVEM      27.99% in 2006 to 45.86%
Left:       PRD+PT+C     29.70% in 2006 to 19.42%

PANAL (which I guess would count as center)  went from 4.04% in 2006 to 2.63%
PSD (which I guess would count as left but no populist like PRD) went from 1.91% to 1.09%

It seems that PRI+PVEM took most of its votes from Left and PANAL/PSD relative to 2006.  In 2006 I think the PRI+PVEM vote was artificially low anyway due to AMLO's coattails and PRI's horrible Prez candidate.  These PRI voters that vote PRD seems to be coming home this time.

[ag]

Though elections are long gone and the new Congress has assembled, court cases on local races continue. Particular fun from Mexico City.

Of the 16 boroughs, PRD captured 12 in July outright (down 2 from 2006). 3 of the remainder are contested (the only exception is the middle class borough of Benito Juarez, which is safe PANista territory).

The largest city borough, Iztapalapa, has been hilarious from before the vote (if you scroll a bit up this therad, you'll read my description of the entire mess). Well, it continues. Rafael "Juanito" Acosta has won it under the PT banner. Of course, nearly everyone agrees that the only reason he won is his promise to AMLO that he would resign, leaving Mayor Ebrard to appoint the pro-AMLO perredista candidate Brugada (whose selection as PRD candidate had been overturned by the courts for primary violations). Now he is saying that it's not clear if the City Council would vote to confirm Ebrard's nomination of Brugada (as I predicted) and that, in any case, he's won on his own, and Brugada would be a "spurious" delegate - to make the long story short, he is either not resigning, or is trying to bargain hard for spoils if he does. A lesson for AMLO, I guess: don't rely on the unreliable.

In Miguel Hidalgo, which had been ruled by PAN, a narrow race was won by the PANista Demetrio Sodi. PRD sued, arguing that he went far above the campaign limits: the point which was conceded by the Electoral Commission. Today the City Electoral Tribunal was poised to annul the election, but minutes before it went into session the Federal Electoral Tribunal ruled that the biggest "overspending" item is not, really, illegal. Sodi was interviewed during a soccer game shortly before the election, and his interview went on air during the broadcast. The Electoral Commission had "priced" the interview, and found it (naturally) to be very expensive - prime-time TV advert during a major sporting event is not within the legal budget set of a local race. However, the Federal Tribunal ruled that an interview is not, really, partisan propaganda, and that journalists' work cannot be so restricted. This means that even if Sodi did exceed campaign spending limits, the remaining overspending was minor. The City Tribunal has postponed announcing the decision. Their preliminary ruling, that had been leaked, ordered a new election - now it would have to be revised (they'd have to find that overspending crucially affected the results of the race, which now may be hard).

However, minutes later - just minutes ago -  they did "retaliate": PANista pick-up of the mountanous borough of Cuajimalpa has been striken down, as PAN candidate's overspending was ruled "crucially affecting the result" (the amount of overspending involved wasn't as large - less than USD$20,000 - as the one originally imputed to Sodi, but then Cuajimalpa is a smallish bourough, and campaign limits are tighter). Yesterday rumors were that there was some disagreement on this ruling inside the tribunal - they were rumored as unanimous on Sodi -  but today the new race has just been ordered. So Miguel Hidalgo's Sodi, viewed as dead for some days, has gotten a reprieve, and Cuajimalpa's Orvananos is disquilified instead. This decision, though, is not unanimous (3 in favor, 2 against) and it remains to be seen, what the Federal tribunal decides.

[ag]

A hilarious update.

When we last met, two of the panista districts in Mexico City were in doubt. In the end, federal courts ruled in favor of the panistas (after the local courts ruled against them), but that was in September/October. And that's not hilariuos

The true joy is in Iztapalapa, where, according to AMLO, you had to vote for Rafa so that Juanito would win and make Carla the delegate (see this tread for the rest of this surrealism up to now). Juanito did get elected and initially resisted resigning in favor of Clara. However, eventually, though he took office formally, he designated the AMLOista PRDista Clara Brugada his second-in-command and immediately asked for the 59-day long leave of absence, during which Brugada, as desired by AMLO, was acting head of the borough. Everybody thought, that after 59 days Juanito is going to retire and Brugada would be formally installed in his place permanently. Meanwhile, Juanito was enjoyig himself, posing for a bronze statue of himself and for pictures w/ pretty girls and such.

Well, 59 days expired yesterday. And, guess what: today Juanito entered the office and had the locks changed He is the delegate, and he means it. The City Council is considering moves to have him ousted - it is questionable, how would that be done: he did get plurality of the vote in July, no question of that, and the compact w/ AMLO was strictly extra legal. People around are saying, he is courting with being murdered. Vamos a ver

[Alexander Hamilton]

my grandpa lives in baja. he is a pri member.

[ag]

my grandpa lives in baja. he is a pri member.

Well, that's one of the few places in the country, where it isn't doing him any good: Baja Norte has been PANista continuously since 1989 and Baja Sur is a PRD stronghold.