2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, Lips is guaranteed to be reelected in September...I'd guess CDU +10 at least.

If the CDU does not implode like they did in 2005 ...

In June/July 2005 the CDU was ahead of the SPD by 20%, in the end the CDU won by 1 ...

It won't implode by that much, simply because it's current figures aren't that inflated.

I don't see CDU-CSU-FDP get a majority though. Unless turnout drops to below 70 or something. And it'll be interesting to see how much tactical constituency voting there'll be, and by whom - I'm not really predicting anything on that count, except for the general direction (up). Depends in part on how much media play the issue gets, though.

I´m expecting the FDP and Greens rising most when compared with 2005 numbers.

Probably:

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 10%
Others: 4%

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa/Stern poll:

CDU/CSU: 37% (+1)
SPD: 21% (nc)
FDP: 15% (nc)
Greens: 13% (+1)
Left: 9% (-2)
Others: 5% (nc)

Merkel (CDU) vs. Steinmeier (SPD): 58-18

Merkel Approval Rating: 66%
Steinmeier Approval Rating: 53%

Also, Minister of Economy Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (CSU) is benefitting CDU/CSU, because he's the second most popular politician in Germany right now with 61% approval.

[Franzl]

I also strongly approve of zu Guttenberg.

[minionofmidas]

He made a perfect ass of himself over Opel.
He was right over KarstadtQuelle of course, but most people were.

[Tender Branson]

It seems SPD and Greens have now found a topic to score some points in the pre-election campaign:

Shutting down accident-prone power plants like Krümmel, which is rather popular with the electorate. 72% of Germans favor shutting down these nuclear plants.

Maybe this debate will make the race closer, but just maybe.

Meanwhile, Obama has already called the election for Merkel ...

[Franzl]

It seems SPD and Greens have now found a topic to score some points in the pre-election campaign:

Shutting down accident-prone power plants like Krümmel, which is rather popular with the electorate. 72% of Germans favor shutting down these nuclear plants.

Maybe this debate will make the race closer, but just maybe.

Meanwhile, Obama has already called the election for Merkel ...

Well it's almost a certainty that Merkel will remain chancellor, regardless of what the government looks like.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

[Tender Branson]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

[minionofmidas]

Uh, what? A CDU that wants to hold an election on a day ensuring high turnout? Has the sky just fallen?

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.


Btw, it's worth to note that this coalition collapses for largely superficial reasons. First of all, Carstensen and SPD leader Ralf Stegner are said to despise each other on a personal level. There has been trouble between the two in past. In fact, Stegner once was a minister under Carstensen until he quit because they didn't go along with each other anymore. And second, the Schleswig-Holsteinian CDU seems to love the idea of holding the next state election on the same as the Bundestag election, so that they can profit from Merkel's coattails.

[minionofmidas]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.

It does not make sense for the SPD to delay the elections just a little longer. If they can't hope against hope for better polling sometime in 2010, the federal election date is their best option.

They're just playing hard to get because of the way the CDU dragged this on and on and then suddenly acted on its own without provocation, pretending it's the SPD's fault. They'll come around.

(Or alternatively, maybe they could try Red-Green-SSW again. Okay, so I too doubt they have the balls.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.

It does not make sense for the SPD to delay the elections just a little longer. If they can't hope against hope for better polling sometime in 2010, the federal election date is their best option.

They're just playing hard to get because of the way the CDU dragged this on and on and then suddenly acted on its own without provocation, pretending it's the SPD's fault. They'll come around.

(Or alternatively, maybe they could try Red-Green-SSW again. Okay, so I too doubt they have the balls.)

Well, I once heard the argument that Carstensen could be "afraid" that there will be a CDU/FDP coalition in place on the federal level at time of the next state election in May 2010, and that this state could be the first where voters punish him and his CDU for unpopular decisions the new federal government would have made.

[Tender Branson]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.

It does not make sense for the SPD to delay the elections just a little longer. If they can't hope against hope for better polling sometime in 2010, the federal election date is their best option.

They're just playing hard to get because of the way the CDU dragged this on and on and then suddenly acted on its own without provocation, pretending it's the SPD's fault. They'll come around.

(Or alternatively, maybe they could try Red-Green-SSW again. Okay, so I too doubt they have the balls.)

Well, I once heard the argument that Carstensen could be "afraid" that there will be a CDU/FDP coalition in place on the federal level at time of the next state election in May 2010, and that this state could be the first where voters punish him and his CDU for unpopular decisions the new federal government would have made.

Greens and SSW have ruled out to back the installment of a Prime Minister Stegner.

BTW, how common is it in Germany that the party who calls for early elections is punished at the polls ? At least in Austria its fairly common. Look at the ÖVP last year. It didn't apply to Schröder in 2005 though or only slightly, because the CDU was ahead by 15-20 and the SPD "only" lost by 1.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens and SSW have ruled out to back the installment of a Prime Minister Stegner.

BTW, how common is it in Germany that the party who calls for early elections is punished at the polls ? At least in Austria its fairly common. Look at the ÖVP last year. It didn't apply to Schröder in 2005 though or only slightly, because the CDU was ahead by 15-20 and the SPD "only" lost by 1.

Depends on the circumstances, I guess. On the federal level, the SPD won its best result ever (and it still is to this date) after the early elections of 1972. The question is whether an early election is seen as a sign of desperation and/or weakness (and whether a government is able to defy such impression). Was a government driven to hold an early election or wanted the government to hold an early election (because of good polls at the time, for example)?

Anyway, it seems that the state parliament is going to vote tomorrow on dissolving itself. SPD still asserts that they will vote against the motion and that Carstensen should hand in his resignation if he doesn't want to carry on with his job anymore.

[minionofmidas]

Well, I once heard the argument that Carstensen could be "afraid" that there will be a CDU/FDP coalition in place on the federal level at time of the next state election in May 2010, and that this state could be the first where voters punish him and his CDU for unpopular decisions the new federal government would have made.

Yeah, may 2010 is something else. I was talking as an alternative to say a month after the federals.

[Hash]

Not much discussion of the August 30 state elections, eh.

Saxony (IfM Leipzig, July 17 09)
CDU 42%
Linke 17%
SPD 14%
FDP 11%
Green 7%
NPD 5%
Others 4%

Saxony (Infratest dimap, June 26 09)
CDU 40%
Linke 20%
SPD 13%
FDP 12%
Green 6%
NPD 5%
Others 4%

Thuringia (Infratest dimap, June 25 09)
CDU 36%
Linke 24%
SPD 18%
FDP 9%
Green 6%
Others 7%

[Tender Branson]

It's CSU-party convention time in Bavaria !

Prime Minister Horst Seehofer was only re-elected by 88% of all delegates, a somewhat weak result. The CSU is also against the EU-membership of Iceland (on Thursday, the Iceland Parliament has voted in favor of EU-membership).

The only shining star of the convention is the German Minister of the Economy, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, who was re-elected with 96% of the delegates into the CSU leadership council.

There are also 3 new Schleswig-Holstein polls, after PM Carstensen (CDU) announced the breakup of the CDU/SPD coalition.

Infratest-dimap for NDR:

CDU: 36% (-4 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 24% (-15)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 14% (+8)
Left: 5% (+4)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

PM Peter Harry Carstensen (CDU) defeats Ralf Stegner (SPD) by 51-19 in a direct vote.

56% of SH voters are for new elections.

Psephos for the Hamburger Abendblatt:

CDU: 39% (-1)
SPD: 25% (-14)
FDP: 14% (+7)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 3% (nc)

Forsa for the Lübecker Nachrichten:

CDU: 38% (-2)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 14% (+7)
Greens: 8% (+2)
Left: 5% (+4)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

Another indicator that the SPD is the "bad" party in the state:



Despite the fact that PM Carstensen (CDU) announced the end of the coalition, voters hold Stegner of the SPD more accountable for the breakup ...

BTW, does anyone know what the deadline for dissolvement of parliament would have to be to hold state elections together with the federal elections ?

[Хahar 🤔]

What does "beide gleichermaßen" mean?

[minionofmidas]

What does "beide gleichermaßen" mean?

"Both equally". That poll does not show what Tender says it does, really. What it does show is Carstensen's not suffering as even diehard social democrats don't blame him alone. Which is bad enough.

Oh, and lol at pollsters' disagreements over the strength of the Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, does anyone know what the deadline for dissolvement of parliament would have to be to hold state elections together with the federal elections ?

State constitution says that an early election must be held within 70 days after dissolving the state parliament. Other deadlines can be found in Schleswig-Holstein's electoral law. In the case of an early election, filing deadline for political parties is 48 days before the election.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, does anyone know what the deadline for dissolvement of parliament would have to be to hold state elections together with the federal elections ?

In the case of an early election, filing deadline for political parties is 48 days before the election.

Which would be 3 weeks from today ...

[Tender Branson]

News from Emnid:

80% of Germans think that Merkel will remain Chancellor, only 13% say Steinmeier.

95% of CDU/CSU voters say Merkel will stay and 84% of SPD voters.

Also, voters oppose a new Grand Coalition by 56-37.

53% of SPD voters and 51% of CDU/CSU are against it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

So, who's giving a no-confidence vote to Carstensen ?

CDU and FDP ? Also the Greens ?