2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Uh, the Saarland does do MMP. It just doesn't do the crappy half-pseudo-single-member split-your-vote-to-try-and-vote-tactical-but-fail-epically thingy. Nor does Hamburg. Nor does Bremen. Nor does North Rhine Westphalia. Nor does Baden-Württemberg. Nor did Schleswig-Holstein until the late 90s. Nor did Hesse and Rhineland-Pfalz until the early 90s. What Hans says about Bavaria is also correct.

[minionofmidas]

Some thoughts:

We will probably get a CDU-FDP-CSU government and a weak turnout. The idiots leading the SPD have thrown away all options except that and a CDU-led grand coalition (and a grand coalition with a weakened SPD to boot). It's like it's 1987 all over again. And a lot of the country doesn't see the difference. And a lot of these people don't vote if they think nothing's at stake.
A lot of these people are also the very people who switched from the SPD to the Left in 2005, so I'm expecting a disappointing (not disastrous) showing for the West German Left, too. And frankly, if their entire advertising is geared towards these people, then they deserve what they get.

Most analysts expect the CDU to get utterly unprecedented loads of overhang seats (and it expects the same, otherwise they wouldn't have fought tooth and nail to hold this election under rules declared unconstitutional from 2010 on.) This is of course likely, but by no means certain. German pollsters don't exactly know how to - or even try to - gauge how people will split their vote. It might be that all the new Green and Left list voters will stick to the SPD direct candidates. And some of the old Green and Left voters will switch their direct vote to the SPD*. Heck, it might be (but I'd be utterly shocked in that case) that many of the new FDP voters will not vote for the CDU direct candidates.
*As I will. Not because I like Amann, because as a matter of fact I don't, but there are no appealing alternatives in Frankfurt West. And I care about CDU overhang mandates.

Ironically, while a CDU-CSU-FDP government may not be good for the country - it will make a difference. Trust me - the one political party it will almost certainly be good for is the SPD. Indeed, the SPD *needs* a stint in opposition if it's to rebuild and throw the Schröderian shibboleths over board.

The SPD would be in a better state now if they hadn't couped out Kurt Beck.

Eh, what else was I going to say. Oh right. The State Elections next week. They're the last beacon of hope, really. The dates were set when CDU state governments hoped that a lot of badly managed talk about red-red coalitions right before the general would hurt the SPD badly. Now mobilization is so low (you can feel it) that it might actually help. Help people see that there is an alternative (even if we end up with a Grand Coalition anyways.) Of course, not a cert. Even if we get results that allow such speculation. Which isn't certain either.

And there's the whole brouhaha about the validity of the election. A decent summary is here if you speak German. All in all, the points omitted make this still marginally biased pro-Wahlausschuss, btw. I agree with their conclusion that an invalidation of the election is exceedingly unlikely. Though I also think the infractions are grave enough that one would be called for. But maybe the Supreme Court will force lawmakers to make up better rules for the future. That would be good enough for me, I guess.

And a note on tactical votes and the 5% threshold. A lot of people fear to vote for a party in danger of failing because that'd be "throwing away their vote". That's the right instinct if the party is certain to fail. If a party you like has a chance to get in though, however small, not voting for that party is throwing away the votes of thousands of people who think somewhat like you. I wish someone would explain that to the world...
I'm undecided on my list vote. I was thinking of voting Green. I mean, Jürgen Trittin is officially their co top candidate (though the media keep showing that Renate Künast whom I've never been impressed by), and Tom Koenigs has the number four slot on the Hesse state list. But my heart's not in it. Greens need to bear part of the blame of not working for a viable red-green-red federal option IMHO (though not as much as the Left and the SPD), and their campaign isn't much more directed in my direction than the Left's. If I'm getting much more underground noise about the Pirates, I might vote for them. I might also vote Left yet. Green's still most likely.

[Hans-im-Glück]

@ Lewis

4 more years of a Grand Coalition would be the Dead of the SPD. Then they will down under 20%. The only chance for the SPD is the Opposition, then there will be very ugly fighting between the different wings, but the SPD need it. The Schröder Politics nearly destroys them. The base of the SPD was the connection to the Unions, but this is over and out. The Unions don't trust this Idiots in the SPD anymore.

It would be a very big sensation, but when the CDU/CSU-FDP have a majority after the election, it means not that 100% comes a coalition of them. In the CDU/CSU not all think a coalition with the FDP is a good thing. They think it's easier to govern with a weak SPD, like a FDP after a very good result for them. They know, that the FDP wants some things (cut the income tax) that's impracticable. That would ruin to country.

For the state elections in Thüringen i don't see that the people there have fear about a Red-Red-Green coalition. I know many people from there and the most of them can't see Althaus (the CDU Governor) anymore. Some say he is better in skiing like to govern ) The only chance for Althaus is the Green, they are very weak there, don't come in Parlament.

[minionofmidas]

4 more years of a Grand Coalition would be the Dead of the SPD.

Quite possibly.

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Not happening. (I am perfectly ready to believe that some people in the CDU are both intelligent and macchiavellian enough to think so. But it's still not happening.)

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And he's not a very good skier either.

But frankly, few (SPD-voting) people in Hesse feared a Red-Red-Green coalition either. Of course they preferred Red-Green (and they hoped for Red-Green until the election. Something not happening in Thuringia. ) That didn't stop events. That certainly didn't stop the national media. Or the national SPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Not happening. (I am perfectly ready to believe that some people in the CDU are both intelligent and macchiavellian enough to think so. But it's still not happening.)

Yeah, not happening. Merkel would come under heavy fire from within her own party, economically conservative CDU voters would (continue to) defect to the FDP in droves and the FDP would never ever trust the CDU anymore.

[Franzl]

We're certainly in election season here now....having just got back from the U.S..

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Hi Franzl, Welcome back

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

I understand, you are not sure which lie is better.

CDU - moderate tax cutting
FDP - massive tax cutting   

For me:
I will vote for the Greens. I'm not sure i like all they want and deep inside I'm not Green, I'm Red, but I'm very disappointed by the SPD ans don't trust the Linke (Gysi is Okay, but Lafontaine is more than terrible)

[Tender Branson]

Absolutely.
The official position of the SPD is "only if we get to be state pm" (not sure about the Greens, but I've seen it taken for granted that that's their position too.) Obviously, the Left would loathe to bypass its first-ever chance to head a government. Still, the spin machine is in full swing already, a la "well, if (SPD+Greens)>Left, then a majority of the government MdLs wants the SPD to head the government".
Hope it won't come across as counting unlaid eggs...

According to a Spiegel-article, the Thüringen-Linke is willing to forego the PM post if a Red-Red coalition is possible, even if they run ahead of the SPD in they election. It's not even likely that Red-Red is possible from the electoral standpoint and let's see what the Linke does if the only possibility is Red-Red-Green.

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Sachsen poll by IfM Leipzig for MDR:

CDU: 41% (n.c. compared with 2004)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 14% (+4)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-4)
Others: 4% (-1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

[Tender Branson]

The Thüringen-CDU meanwhile sent out a 40-page infomercial to 1 Mio. households.

The opposition is crying foul (wasting taxpayer money and hidden election propaganda etc ...)

Sounds familiar ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88481.msg1931094#msg1931094

[Middle-aged Europe]

I guess I'll have to vote Green. But only because it wouldn't make much sense to campaign for one party and then vote for another.

Anyway... any guesses who's going to be SPD chairman in October/November this year?

[Franzl]

Hi Franzl, Welcome back

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

I understand, you are not sure which lie is better.

Every party lies....

[Tender Branson]

New Thüringen poll by IfM Leipzig:

CDU: 37% (-6)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 20% (+5)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 6% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Thüringen poll by IfM Leipzig:

CDU: 37% (-6)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 20% (+5)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 6% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Only if the 5% for the Greens means "5.1%" instead of "4.9%" though.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

I understand, you are not sure which lie is better.

Every party lies....

That's true

I guess I'll have to vote Green. But only because it wouldn't make much sense to campaign for one party and then vote for another.

Anyway... any guesses who's going to be SPD chairman in October/November this year?

This is a very difficult question. There is nobody with charisma and over the most leaders of the SPD is the shadow of the Schröder politics and this is the biggest reason for the SPD-disaster they will have in the election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is a very difficult question. There is nobody with charisma and over the most leaders of the SPD is the shadow of the Schröder politics and this is the biggest reason for the SPD-disaster they will have in the election.

So... what about Wowereit? Mayor of Berlin since 2001, high name recognition nationally and it opens up an opportunity for Red-Red-Green in 2013. Beck and Platzeck are both damaged goods. And nobody even knows who Sellering and Böhrnsen are. If you take another state premier, it's Wowi's turn now.

Steinbrück is politically even more centrist than Steinmeier, and for some reason I can't really see Andrea Nahles as a party chairman. I guess it could be an option that Müntefering steps aside and Steinmeier becomes the new SPD chairman (he would be jobless anyway if a CDU-FDP coalition comes to fruition). But this would prolong the crisis and not end it.

Longshots: Sigmar Gabriel (ugh), Hannelore Kraft?... uh, well, that's about it, isn't it? Heiko Maas, Christoph Matschie or Ralf Stegner if they manage to become state PM somehow? Well, I'm really grasping at straws now.

[Hans-im-Glück]

@ Old Europe

Wowereit is the only well-known man of the SPD in the federal states. All other you can forget. I like it to see him as chairman of the SPD, but there are some problems. He makes the way free for a Red-Red-Green coalition and many in the SPD are against this. It would be a ugly fight inside the party. On the other hand, his results in Berlin aren't so good. He haven't a big basis in the SPD.

Steinbrück would be only a interim solution. He is not a man for a new beginning, but he is better than Steinmeier. Steinmeier is after the election politically dead. I don't see a future for him. Only The CDU/CSU - FDP get no majority.

When the SPD get a PM in a bigger State, then it is easier. But where is the Man or Woman to win NRW, Niedersachsen or Hessen (i don't speak about Baden-Württemberg or Bavaria ) From a smaller State it's possible too, but Heiko Maas, or Ralf Steger aren't very big names in their own state. Here in Bavaria they are unknown and faceless . Matschie have more potential, but first he must win in Thüringen and in the moment he is in place 3.

[minionofmidas]

Wowereit or Gabriel.
Either would be a massive improvement over the current clowns.
(Platzeck is not so much damaged goods - he's just not interested. And for very good reasons, lest we forget.)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Wowereit or Gabriel.

Then Wowereit. Or did you think with Gabriel have the SPD a future?

[minionofmidas]

Better than Steinmeier, anyhow.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Better than Steinmeier, anyhow.

Nearly everybody is better like Steinmeier He is a little bit like a sleeping pill  for me.

[Lief 🗽]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

[Tender Branson]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

85% of Germans are comfortable with a gay chancellor according to polls.

It's a non-issue.

[Lief 🗽]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

85% of Germans are comfortable with a gay chancellor according to polls.

It's a non-issue.

Oh wow, I figured it was probably a super majority (like 60-70%), but not that high.

[Tender Branson]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

85% of Germans are comfortable with a gay chancellor according to polls.

It's a non-issue.

Oh wow, I figured it was probably a super majority (like 60-70%), but not that high.

I´ve posted about it some 2 years ago. Take a look here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=62167.msg1298836#msg1298836

(well, the actual figure was 79%, but is probably higher now ...)