2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wowereit's homosexuality could help him marginally among younger leftists (because it would be "cool" to have a gay Chancellor) and hurt him marginally among older conservatives. In the end this cancels each other out. And since it didn't hurt Westerwelle politically, why should it hurt Wowereit? Wowereit would be the second open homosexual to become the leader of a major German party. Big deal.

[minionofmidas]

Because Wowereit is a f****tty hard-left fairy and Westerwelle and von Beust are such nice well dressed young businessman?
Such things aren't rational (not that I think the effect would be large.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

And the mud-throwing season has officially started. First health minister Ulla Schmidt (SPD) was under criticism for using her official car during vacations. Now Angela Merkel has come under fire because she threw a birthday party for Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann in the Chancellery (paid from the Chancellery's budget).



Summary for the last state election polls from Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia:

Saarland
Infratest: CDU/FDP 47%, SPD/Greens/Left 47%
FGW: CDU/FDP 45%, SPD/Greens/Left 48%

Saxony
Infratest: CDU/FDP 49.5%, SPD/Greens/Left 40%, NPD 4.5%
FGW: CDU/FDP 53%, SPD/Greens/Left 37%, NPD 6%
IfM: CDU/FDP 51%, SPD/Greens/Left 40%, NPD 5%

Thuringia
Infratest: CDU/FDP 42%, SPD/Greens/Left 49% (if the Greens fail to reach 5%: SPD/Left 43%)
FGW: CDU/FDP 45%, SPD/Greens/Left 48% (without Greens 43%)
IfM: CDU/FDP 46%, SPD/Greens/Left 48% (without Greens 43%)


So, we're looking at a CDU/FDP victory in Saxony and close races in Saarland and Thuringia. And it seems as if the outcome of the Thuringia election depends on whether the Greens make it past the 5% threshold.

Both the SPD's chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the Greens's top candidate Renate Künast have basically said that Red-Red-Green is an option in both states, provided that the Left Party won't get the position of minister-president.

Yeah, a "victory" in both states on August 30 could be the SPD's last hope of slowing down the CDU's momentum for the September 27 election.

[Tender Branson]

Latest constituency projection by election.de:



Interesting, because under the PR-system the CDU/CSU would only be entitled to receive 215 seats (out of 598, considering 36% CDU/CSU support).

So, how many overhang-mandates will the CDU/CSU win ? 30 ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, time for my predictions:

Saarland:

CDU: 34% (-13.5)
SPD: 27% (-4)
Left: 16% (+14)
FDP: 11% (+6)
Greens: 7% (+1)
Others: 5% (-3.5)

Sachsen:

CDU: 37% (-4)
Left: 21% (-3)
SPD: 14% (+4)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Greens: 7% (+2)
Nazis: 7% (-2)
Others: 4% (-1)

Thüringen:

CDU: 34% (-9)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 18% (+3.5)
FDP: 10% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1.5)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 4% (-2)

[minionofmidas]

Broadly agree. Though I would like to place an outside bet on CDU-Left being the only two-party combination with a theoretical majority in Saxony.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Well, here is my prediction:

Saarland:

CDU: 36% (-11.5)
SPD: 25,5% (-5,5)
Left: 17% (+15)
FDP: 10% (+7)
Greens: 6,5% (+0,5)
Others: 5% (-3.5)

Sachsen:

CDU: 39% (-2)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 13% (+3)
FDP: 11% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 7% (-2)
Others: 4% (-1)

Thüringen:

CDU: 36% (-7)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 19% (+4.5)
FDP: 9,5% (+5,5)
Greens: 5,5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 3% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open in Saarland, Sachsen and Thüringen (state elections) and in Nordrhein-Westfalen (town council elections).

Alltogether about 21 Mio. people are eligible to vote. Polls are closing at 6pm.

[minionofmidas]

Saxony

Turnout to 10am    8.7 percent.
Turnout by mail 7.4 percent (est.)

By region: 10am Chemnitz area 8.9 percent, Leipzig area 9.2 percent, Dresden area 7.7 percent.
Mail: Chemnitz   6.3, Leipzig 8.1, Dresden 8.0

2004: Turnout to 10am 10.2 percent, to noon 23.2 percent, to 2pm 33.4 percent, to 4pm 44.9 percent. (Polls close at 6pm).

Seems Saxons vote earlier in the day than Frankfurters. And fewer vote by mail.

Thuringia
Turnout to 11am ca.18%.
19.7% by noon in 2004, so turnout seems to be slightly up. (IIRC it was horrible in 2004.)
2009 Euros, 11am: ca.15.9%

Postal vote: 8% est. (not included).

Note that all these figures come only from some dozens of selected precincts. No such info out for the Saar.

[Jens]

Broadly agree. Though I would like to place an outside bet on CDU-Left being the only two-party combination with a theoretical majority in Saxony.

Now that would be the grand coalition of the century

[Tender Branson]

2pm turnout numbers:

Saarland

36.7% (2004: 27.8%)

Sachsen

27.6% (2004: 33.4%)

Thüringen

34.5% (2004: 29.6%)

[minionofmidas]

On the strength of these turnout figures, I predict NPD over 10 in Saxony and Red-Red-Green coalitions elsewhere.

[Tender Branson]

Here are 2 live-streams:

http://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/livestream

(N-TV has a hot anchor today)

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/livestreams/index.html

(starting in 30 minutes)

[Tender Branson]

Meh, turnout in Sachsen at 4 pm down by almost 10% compared with 2004.

Hopefully the Nazis can't capitalize on it.

In Thüringen turnout is up by about 7%, in Saarland by about the same amount.

Exit Polls in 20 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

(N-TV has a hot anchor today)

NOOOOOOO ! They switched the hot anchor with an old male ! *grrrr*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(N-TV has a hot anchor today)

NOOOOOOO ! They switched the hot anchor with an old male ! *grrrr*

I suppose that means that the results are likely to be interesting...

[Tender Branson]

5 PM EXIT POLLS:

Saarland:

CDU: 34.5% (-13.0)
SPD: 25.0% (-5.8 )
Left: 21.0% (+18.7)
FDP: 9.5% (+4.3)
Greens: 5.5% (-0.1)
Others: 4.5% (-0.1)

Sachsen:

CDU: 41.0% (-0.1)
Left: 20.5% (-3.1)
FDP: 10.5% (+4.6)
SPD: 10.0% (+0.2)
Greens: 6.0% (+0.9)
Nazis: 5.5% (-3.7)
Others: 6.5% (+1.2)

Thüringen:

CDU: 32.5% (-10.5)
Left: 26.0% (-0.1)
SPD: 18.5% (+4.0)
FDP: 8.0% (+4.4)
Greens: 5.5% (+1.0)
Nazis: 4.8% (+4.8 )
FW: 3.5 (+3.5)
Others: 1.2% (-7.1)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Exit polls from the German television 18:00  ZDF:

Saarland

CDU   35
SPD      26
GRÜNE   6
FDP   8,5
LINKE   19,5

Sachsen

CDU   40,5
LINKE   21
SPD   10
NPD   5,2
FDP   10,5
GRÜNE   6

Thüringen

CDU   31
LINKE   27
SPD   19
FDP   8,5
GRÜNE   6

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ Althaus and Müller !

Looks like black-people-bashing actually worked for the Nazis in Thüringen ...

[minionofmidas]

So, it looks like CDU-FDP in Saxony, red-green-red or "Grand" coalition in Thuringia, red-green-red or red-red on the Saar.

[Franzl]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Tender Branson]

The CDU overpolling continues (except in Sachsen).

[minionofmidas]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

That's what I thought when I saw the figures for Saxony.

[Franzl]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

That's what I thought when I saw the figures for Saxony.

Saarland is disgusting...to say the least

[Tender Branson]

Steinmeier speaks. Lets see what he has to say.