2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

So, who's giving a no-confidence vote to Carstensen ?

CDU and FDP ? Also the Greens ?

Certainly the CDU, because that's the whole purpose of the vote... and maybe everybody else too. CDU and SPD have been alienated themselves enough the last few days (including the SPD's calls for Carstensen's resignation) that it would be highly ironic if the SPD is the only party voting "in favour" of Carstensen. I would assume that all parties are going to unanimously vote "no".

[minionofmidas]

Yes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Vote of confidence today. CDU abstained, SPD, FDP, Greens and SSW voted "no". There was only a single "yes" vote: state parliament president Martin Kayenburg (CDU).

Early elections on September 27.

[Tender Branson]

Now the CDU is going down as well. New IfM poll for Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 32% (-8)
SPD: 23% (-16)
FDP: 17% (+10)
Greens: 15% (+9)
Left: 5% (+4)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

As if the SPD is not down enough in the federal polls, there's even more bad news for them:

German Minister Accused of Wasting Taxpayers' Money

German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt faces accusations of wasting taxpayers' money after she had her official limousine driven more than 2,000 kilometers to Spain's Costa Blanca, where she is vacationing. She says she needs the car to attend official functions there. Unfortunately, it has been stolen.

German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt has come in for strong criticism in the media and from fellow politicians after it emerged that she took her official limousine, an armored Mercedes S class plus driver, on vacation to Spain.



In hot water: German Health Minister Ulla Schmidt

Schmidt's spokeswoman said the minister needed the limousine to attend a number of official functions in Spain during the vacation, and that the minister didn't break any rules. All German cabinet ministers are entitled to a limousine and driver for official and private use, provided they cover the costs of private use themselves.

The case probably wouldn't have come to light if the car hadn't been stolen last week from the Spanish resort of Denia, some 80 kilometers north of Alicante.

Reports of the theft prompted uncomfortable questions about why Schmidt needed her limousine during her vacation when the German embassy in Madrid could presumably have arranged transport for her official engagements there.

She flew to Spain while her chauffeur drove all the way from Germany to the Costa Blanca, a popular tourist destination on Spain's Mediterranean coast. The government footed the fuel cost of the trip to Spain, media reports said.

Media commentators and politicians from the rival conservatives accused her of wasting taxpayers' money -- an especially damaging allegation at a time of economic crisis.

Quite apart from the financial aspects, it doesn't look good for a minister to be enjoying the perks of her office on a vacation.

The resulting negative press headlines are the last thing Schmidt's center-left Social Democrats need as they prepare to begin campaigning this week for the Sept. 27 general election. They are trailing badly in opinion polls.

Berliner Kurier, a Berlin tabloid, ran the front page headline "Not Without My S-Class".

Georg Schirmbeck, a member of parliament for Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats, said sending the limousine across Europe was a "scandalous waste of taxpayers' money."

In Germany, accusations of wasting taxpayers' money are far more dangerous to politicians than other types of scandal such as revelations about extramarital affairs. However, given that Schmidt's term will be over in just two months, it seems unlikely at this stage that she will be forced to resign.

"The fact that she made such a hefty faux-pas shows: she's the wrong woman for the federal government," Schirmbeck told Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung newspaper. "Her behavior does immense damage to the more than 600 members of parliament. The Health Minister is exacerbating the mistrust that broad swathes of the population have towards politicians." The conservatives and Social Democrats rule together in a power-sharing grand coalition.

Ole Schöder, another CDU member, said parliament's budget committee will be asking Schmidt questions about the matter.

Patrick Döring, a member of parliament for the opposition pro-business Free Democrats, said: "I can't imagine that the German embassy in Madrid isn't in a position to drive the minister to a speech or several speeches."

A Health Ministry spokeswoman said the minister had two official engagements during her two-week vacation. One is a reception hosted by the mayor of the village of Denia where she is vacationing, the second is taking place in a public hall in Els Poblets -- less than 10 kilometers away.

Schmidt has a privately rented car for private excursions during her holiday.

Business daily Financial Times Deutschland commented on Monday: "What will stick is the message that an SPD minister who speaks up for the poor and the weak in her speeches has herself driven around in an armored S-class vehicle while on vacation. You can't get much further removed from the people than that."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,638488,00.html

[Tender Branson]

A new Emnid poll shows the following turnout forecast:

59% will definitely vote
27% are currently undecided if they will vote
11% will definitely not vote

For comparision, in 2005 turnout was 78%. So I guess 80% could be possible this time.

62.2 Mio. Germans are eligible to vote on Sept. 27, which would mean about 50 Mio. votes.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa Poll Update:

CDU/CSU: 38% (+2)
SPD: 23% (nc)
FDP: 13% (-1)
Greens: 12% (nc)
Left: 9% (-1)
Others: 5% (nc)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP

Merkel (CDU): 58% (+2)
Steinmeier (SPD): 17% (-3)

[Tender Branson]

Latest Forsa poll for the August 30 Thüringen state elections:

CDU: 40% (-3 compared with '04 state elections)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 16% (+1)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Nazis: 3% (+1)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

All data:



Averages for each month:



So is no one even campaigning or what? It seems like voters have made  up their mind and only a very small % of people are wavering at all. Are things about to heat up as the election gets closer, or are German voters just already decided?

http://www.abehnisch.com/btw09.html

The general election campaign still has not started, but you are right - only 20% of Germans are wavering atm. The others can be considered the Stammwählerschaft ("base voters") of the parties.

There's probably some movement in the next 2 months and there's already some considerable movement compared with 2005 (the coalition in power is losing votes and the opposition parties are gaining). In 2002 and 2005 the CDU/CSU was way overpolling by 10 and 20 percent by this time of the year, but in the end the result was tied in 2002 and 2005.

But this time around it's different: Schröder was in power in 2002 and 2005 and had the "Amtsbonus" (incumbency bonus), now it's Merkel - currently with a 70% Approval rating.

The SPD is also not able to gain because of the "tax-wasting-scandal" of Ulla Schmidt -> see article above.

There's also another aspect why the CDU/CSU is doing that well right now. In the beginning of 2009 the FDP was gaining considerably from the CDU/CSU, to about 18% in spring. Then Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg became Minister of Economy and a very popular one. This caused many voters to switch back to CDU/CSU, who were formerly sceptics of the CDU/CSU economic measures.

[Tender Branson]

Steinmeier unveils his campaign war team



Hoping to shake off the recent scandal over Health Minister Ulla Schmidt’s stolen limousine, Social Democrat (SPD) candidate for chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Thursday unveiled his election team, in which women outnumber men.

Steinmeier’s “shadow cabinet” for the national election campaign includes 10 women and eight men, among them some fresh - and young - faces with no experience in federal politics.

The current chairwoman of the Bundestag defence committee, Ulrike Merten, will become the first woman responsible for the key portfolio of defence in a campaign.

The Social Democrats, who are trailing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats in every published poll, have less than two months to make up the gap before the polls open on September 27.

Steinmeier, who serves as Foreign Minister in the uneasy grand coalition government with Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), has appealed repeatedly in the past few days to the party not to give up the fight against her party.

He announced his election campaign team in Potsdam after a closed party meeting, which was overshadowed by discussion of the damaging row over Health Minister Schmidt’s embarrassing decision to take her official car on holiday in Spain. After the €90,000 armoured Mercedes S-Class was stolen, taxpayer advocacy groups have criticised Schmidt, saying it was unethical for her to spend tax dollars to have her driver make the 2,387-kilometre journey from Berlin to accompany her on a few minor official visits.

Though Schmidt has said she will not resign, she has been left out of Steinmeier’s team for the time being. For now her place is filled by the party’s parliamentary health spokeswoman Carola Reimann, who will also take responsibility for universities and research.

Current Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück will take the key role of the SPD's campaign spokesman for finance and the economy. He will be backed up by 37-year-old businessman Harald Christ, who will look after small business.

Christ is one of several fresh faces, the youngest of whom is the 35-year-old social minister for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, who will speak for family issues during the campaign.

The vice-president of the National Union of Farmers (DBV), Udo Folgart, will take agriculture.

SPD parliamentary leader Thomas Oppermann will go up against the CDU’s Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble in the campaign.

The current chief of the state chancellery, Barbara Kisseler, will be responsible for arts and culture.

SPD treasurer Barbara Hendricks takes over consumer and investor affairs and federal MP Dagmar Freitag will look after sports. The commissioner for disabilities, Karin Evers-Meyer, will take on the same issue in the Steinmeier team.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20090730-20925.html

[Tender Branson]

Latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap (July 28-29, 1000 Germans 18+):

CDU/CSU: 36% (West: 38%, East: 28%)
SPD: 24% (West: 24%, East: 23%)
FDP: 14% (West: 15%, East: 11%)
Greens: 13% (West: 14%, East: 9%)
Left: 10% (West: 6%, East: 24%)
Others: 3% (West: 3%, East: 5%)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

Merkel (CDU) vs. Steinmeier (SPD): 60-25

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 70%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 59%

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend752.html

[Hans-im-Glück]

Latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap (July 28-29, 1000 Germans 18+):

CDU/CSU: 36% (West: 38%, East: 28%)
SPD: 24% (West: 24%, East: 23%)
FDP: 14% (West: 15%, East: 11%)
Greens: 13% (West: 14%, East: 9%)
Left: 10% (West: 6%, East: 24%)
Others: 3% (West: 3%, East: 5%)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

Merkel (CDU) vs. Steinmeier (SPD): 60-25

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 70%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 59%

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend752.html

Steinmeier have no chance to win the election. His only hope is that CDU/CSU and FDP get no majority. The he can stay as foreign minister.

For all they say in the last election the SPD had a enormous comeback i must say that Steinmeir is not Schröder. Schröder was a very good election campaigner and Steinmeier isn't this.

[minionofmidas]

There's probably some movement in the next 2 months

There'll be quite a lot but it will all be due to two causes: Turnout and Tactical Voting.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD, FDP, Greens, Left Party, NPD and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) will be on the ballot in all 16 German states this year. As always, the CDU is on the ballot in all states except Bavaria, the CSU in Bavaria only. The Pirate Party is running in all states except Saxony.

Political parties which are running in at least half the states of Germany are: the far-right DVU, the Republicans, and the ödp (sort of a conservative version of the Green Party). All remaining parties are on the ballot in less than eight states.

[minionofmidas]

Lol MLPD. I wonder who bankrolls them.

[Tender Branson]

Emnid asked Germans if they'd like to see another term for these politicians:



Ah yeah, you can zoom this picture with a click of your mouse ...

[Tender Branson]

81% of East-Germans favor a second Merkel-term.

Is this a hidden Merkel-boost on election day, or will voters in Eastern Germany don't care about her and vote CDU in accordance to what the polls show ?

[minionofmidas]

Polls *are* showing CDU gains in East Germany to make up for the demographically inevitable losses in the west.

Or at least there was a snippet on election.de to that effect some months ago.

[Tender Branson]

Polls *are* showing CDU gains in East Germany to make up for the demographically inevitable losses in the west.

Or at least there was a snippet on election.de to that effect some months ago.

*must check the facts*

(where can I find 2005 results by East-West, without adding up the numbers myself ?)

[minionofmidas]

http://stat.tagesschau.de/wahlarchiv/wid246/index.shtml (scroll a bit)

Doesn't say what they did about Berlin (there's three options, really: count the whole city as east, count the east as east and the west as west, or not count the city at all.)

[Tender Branson]

http://stat.tagesschau.de/wahlarchiv/wid246/index.shtml (scroll a bit)

Doesn't say what they did about Berlin (there's three options, really: count the whole city as east, count the east as east and the west as west, or not count the city at all.)

Looks like the CDU is holding steady in the West (~38%) and gaining about 3-5% in the East.

Allensbach for example has the CDU at 38% in the West and 30% in the East.
Infratest dimap also has them at 38% and 28% in the East.

For the record: I'd count all of Berlin as "East".

BTW: What do you mean with "inevitable demographic chances" in the West that cause the CDU to lose ?

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the CDU is holding steady in the West (~38%) and gaining about 3-5% in the East.

That's just pollster bias. I'm automatically correcting for what's likely - not certain - in a high-turnout election. (Note: CDU/CSU/FDP combined are currently polling exactly where they were this far out four and seven years ago nationally.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are more old CDU voters dying off than can be replaced. Obviously the phenomenon is most pronounced in urban parts, but it holds as statistically significant nationwide. The CDU will have to appeal to new demographics if it wants to stand a chance of governing in the long run. This didn't use to be the case. There was a "structural" right-wing plurality in Germany once. No more.
It's probably more pronounced if you look strictly at the CDU(/CSU) than at the combined right - younger Conservatives are also more inclined to vote FDP instead. How much of that is due purely to tactics (or misunderstood tactics. Happens on the Left just as much, of course) and how much is due to really liking that brand of rightwingness better is impossible to quantify.
Yeah, I know the "people get more Conservative as they grow older" theory. It doesn't hold water. At least not in a sufficiently determinative way to compare.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like the CDU is holding steady in the West (~38%) and gaining about 3-5% in the East.

That's just pollster bias. I'm automatically correcting for what's likely - not certain - in a high-turnout election. (Note: CDU/CSU/FDP combined are currently polling exactly where they were this far out four and seven years ago nationally.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are more old CDU voters dying off than can be replaced. Obviously the phenomenon is most pronounced in urban parts, but it holds as statistically significant nationwide. The CDU will have to appeal to new demographics if it wants to stand a chance of governing in the long run. This didn't use to be the case. There was a "structural" right-wing plurality in Germany once. No more.
It's probably more pronounced if you look strictly at the CDU(/CSU) than at the combined right - younger Conservatives are also more inclined to vote FDP instead. How much of that is due purely to tactics (or misunderstood tactics. Happens on the Left just as much, of course) and how much is due to really liking that brand of rightwingness better is impossible to quantify.
Yeah, I know the "people get more Conservative as they grow older" theory. It doesn't hold water. At least not in a sufficiently determinative way to compare.

In Germany it probably is that way: people vote more conservative when they are older (not the case in Austria, where the SPÖ is the party of the Olds, because they provide their retirement money ).

In 2005, according to this study, 43% of all people aged 60+ voted CDU/CSU and just 34% for SPD, 9% FPD, 8% Left and 4% Green. So, 52-46 for Center-Right, compared with just 45-51 for the entire electorate. The olds are also the most likely to vote, having turnout of about 80-85%, compared to about 78% among all voters. On the other side, Center-Left gets almost 56% of all votes among 18-24 year olds.

Just looking at CDU/CSU vs. SPD among 45-59 year olds, it's almost tied (33%-34%). These people became older during the last 5 years, but I doubt they have kept their voting behavior and also trended CDU/CSU ...

[minionofmidas]

Eh, no. Some people do, but in general the people 55 today are less conservative than the people who were 55 ten years ago were ten years ago. Etc. (Doesn't hold for every single year among the younger generation, of course. But is probably safe to say anywhere from say people in the late 40s to the early 70s.)

[Tender Branson]

Eh, no. Some people do, but in general the people 55 today are less conservative than the people who were 55 ten years ago were ten years ago. Etc. (Doesn't hold for every single year among the younger generation, of course. But is probably safe to say anywhere from say people in the late 40s to the early 70s.)

If I could only find a "Repräsentative Wahlstatistik" from 1998 and 2002 ...