2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Hash]

www.election.de now estimates the following:



213 direct seats for CDU/CSU (127 of them are safe)
81 direct seats for SPD (15 of them are safe)

97 seats are currently toss-ups
60 seats are slightly leaning in one party's direction

Will be interesting if the districts of Freiburg and Leipzig-South go to the CDU as well ...

There's also the possibility that the states of Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are becoming SPD-free in the first vote ...

Random question: why is southeast Lower Saxony so SPD? Continuation of Northern Hesse?

And I suppose those SPD districts around Bremen and on the coast up there are industrial centres, no?

[minionofmidas]

Talking of Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg ...

The CDU-candidate in this district, Vera Lengsfeld, is advertising with this:

She's not the only candidate with weird ads in that very constituency...



Meanwhile, there aren't any constituency posters here yet.

[minionofmidas]

Random question: why is southeast Lower Saxony so SPD? Continuation of Northern Hesse?

If you mean a non-affluent protestant area that became much more Social Democratic after 45 partly just out of opposition to the Adenauer vision of the future, yes. It's much more industrial though, and was more social democratic before 33.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

East Frisia is a very insular and remarkable area, and has of recently produced some of the SPD's best results anywhere. (I suppose it can sort of qualify as industrial, too, at least in parts. The cities of Wilhelmshaven and Emden sure can.) The district west of Bremen sure includes some fairly industrial terrain (mostly opposite Bremerhaven), but I'm not sure that's true of the district east of it. (Obviously, both districts include some Bremen suburbs, and these aren't exactly that right wing either, the ultra-affluent inner suburban enclaves being within the city boundaries. Just as in Hamburg.) Can't be much more Social Democratic than the districts east of it. I suppose the a slightly higher swing would flip it, a slightly smaller swing would cause some of the other north east Lower Saxony places to not flip.

[The Mikado]

She's not the only candidate with weird ads in that very constituency...



Meanwhile, there aren't any constituency posters here yet.

It's a trap!

[Verily]

She's not the only candidate with weird ads in that very constituency...



Meanwhile, there aren't any constituency posters here yet.

I've never taken a German class in my life, but does that say, "My ass in the pants in the Bundestag"? And, not knowing one way or another, I have to agree with The Mikado: definitely male.

[Tender Branson]

Now the SPD is criticising the opinion poll institute "Forsa" - headed by SPD-member Manfred Güllner - for showing lower numbers for the party than other institutes, primarily headed by CDU-members ...

http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/deutschland/spd-kritisiert-meinungsforschungsinstitut-forsa--18228290.html

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls out today show indeed very diverging numbers:

Forsa for RTL/Stern

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
Left: 11%
Others: 5%

Institute "Info" for the newspaper "Handelsblatt"

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've never taken a German class in my life, but does that say, "My ass in the pants in the Bundestag"? And, not knowing one way or another, I have to agree with The Mikado: definitely male.

It's a figure of speech. "Keinen Arsch in der Hose haben" (having no ass in the pants) means something like being a coward, having no balls, being a pussy etc.


Anyway, here's Hans-Christian Ströbele's ad. As always he uses a costum-made "non-partisan" poster designed by an artist he knows. This time it contains a picture of Karl Marx.

[Hash]

Why is the FDP polling so well?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is the FDP polling so well?

I think the most are disappointed CDU-Voters. The new FDP-voters are thinking the CDU is to left in economics. More like a small SPD .  In the last elections a half of the FDP-voters say they like the CDU more. The SPD lose many, but more to the Green, the Left, the most to the Nonvoters and a little bit to the CDU/CSU.

[Tender Branson]

New federal Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

Infratest-dimap poll for the August 30 Sachsen State Elections:

CDU: 39% (-2 compared with '04)
Left: 19% (-5)
SPD: 15% (+5)
FDP: 12% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-4)
Others: 4% (-1)

Infratest-dimap poll for the August 30 Thüringen State Elections:

CDU: 34% (-9 compared with '04)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 20% (+6)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+2)
Others: 7% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

If the SPD manages to overtake the Left in both Sachsen and Thüringen, that would be quite something positive to go into the final 4 federal campaign weeks.

In Saarland, which also holds state elections on August 30, the state-CDU is in for a trashing anyway (probably losing more than 10% compared with the previous elections), but they are still going to be about 10% ahead of the SPD, mostly because of the Left-strength in this tiny state.

[Tender Branson]

SPD-campaign posters are out:

[Tender Branson]

CDU Campaign Posters:













 

 

 

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh ! The Nazis strike again:

Extremist NPD party tells black politician, 'go home!'

Germany's far-right NPD party has called for a black Christian Democrat (CDU) politician to go home and urged its members in the eastern state of Thuringia to deliver this message to him personally.



Schall is described as integration specialist for Chancellor Merkel's CDU

Zeca Schall, who is under police protection following the NPD statements reacted defiantly to the threats which were posted on the group's website on Tuesday, saying he considered himself to be a Thuringian.

According to the Christian Democrat's party spokesman for the state, Heiko Senebald, Schall said he would not be cowed by extremist threats and that he would continue to work on the regional election campaign.

The 45-year-old German currently appears in a local poster campaign ahead of state elections on Aug. 30. The NPD referred to Schall as a "ratings-n" and said of Schall, who has been in Germany since 1988, that as he was "no longer needed" he should "directly head home to Angola."

CDU members in the eastern state immediately rallied behind Schall, calling the right-wing abuse, "inhuman" and a "violation of human dignity." The party on Wednesday submitted a request for criminal charges to be pressed, saying the NPD's statements were an incitement to racial hatred.

Chair of politics and culture at Berlin's Free University Hajo Funke praised the CDU's direct and rapid response to the verbal abuse but said Thuringia is not doing enough to prevent the spread of right wing ideas.

"They are a latecomer in preventing right wing extremism," he said. "They are one of the least active states in eastern Germany and in Germany as a whole, so it's good that they are finally starting to do something."

According to Senebald, the CDU and Thuringia do enough to combat racism. Calling Thuringia an open and welcoming state, Senebald said the NPD was barely represented in the state and referred to programs aimed at preventing right-wing extremism. These range from the reintegration of former extremists into society as well as helplines for people wishing to leave the groups.

Germany's Office for the Protection of the Constitution said put membership of Thuringia's NPD party at just over 500 in 2008, around 80 less than in 2007. The agency also referred to the party's structure as weakened through political infighting.

The party's statements against Schall are likely to reignite debate over whether the NPD, which is described by Germany's BND domestic intelligence agency as racist, anti-Semitic and revisionist, should be banned. A ban would require a parliamentary majority. The last attempt to achieve a ban failed in 2003.

The NPD currently has around 7,000 members and holds seats in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4561154,00.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The age difference between the models on the SPD and CDU posters is mildly amusing.

[Tender Branson]

Ballot rankings for every state have been released:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/zugelassene_parteien/BW09__Parteireihenfolge.pdf

SPD is ranked 1st on the ballot in 12 states, CDU/CSU in 4 states.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it random?

[MaxQue]

Is it random?

Probably not. The FDP, Greens and Die Linke would have been first somewhere is that was ramdom.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The age difference between the models on the SPD and CDU posters is mildly amusing.

That's because the CDU doesn't use models but their cabinet members.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ughhh ! The Nazis strike again:

Extremist NPD party tells black politician, 'go home!'

Germany's far-right NPD party has called for a black Christian Democrat (CDU) politician to go home and urged its members in the eastern state of Thuringia to deliver this message to him personally.



Schall is described as integration specialist for Chancellor Merkel's CDU

Zeca Schall, who is under police protection following the NPD statements reacted defiantly to the threats which were posted on the group's website on Tuesday, saying he considered himself to be a Thuringian.

According to the Christian Democrat's party spokesman for the state, Heiko Senebald, Schall said he would not be cowed by extremist threats and that he would continue to work on the regional election campaign.

The 45-year-old German currently appears in a local poster campaign ahead of state elections on Aug. 30. The NPD referred to Schall as a "ratings-n" and said of Schall, who has been in Germany since 1988, that as he was "no longer needed" he should "directly head home to Angola."

CDU members in the eastern state immediately rallied behind Schall, calling the right-wing abuse, "inhuman" and a "violation of human dignity." The party on Wednesday submitted a request for criminal charges to be pressed, saying the NPD's statements were an incitement to racial hatred.

Chair of politics and culture at Berlin's Free University Hajo Funke praised the CDU's direct and rapid response to the verbal abuse but said Thuringia is not doing enough to prevent the spread of right wing ideas.

"They are a latecomer in preventing right wing extremism," he said. "They are one of the least active states in eastern Germany and in Germany as a whole, so it's good that they are finally starting to do something."

According to Senebald, the CDU and Thuringia do enough to combat racism. Calling Thuringia an open and welcoming state, Senebald said the NPD was barely represented in the state and referred to programs aimed at preventing right-wing extremism. These range from the reintegration of former extremists into society as well as helplines for people wishing to leave the groups.

Germany's Office for the Protection of the Constitution said put membership of Thuringia's NPD party at just over 500 in 2008, around 80 less than in 2007. The agency also referred to the party's structure as weakened through political infighting.

The party's statements against Schall are likely to reignite debate over whether the NPD, which is described by Germany's BND domestic intelligence agency as racist, anti-Semitic and revisionist, should be banned. A ban would require a parliamentary majority. The last attempt to achieve a ban failed in 2003.

The NPD currently has around 7,000 members and holds seats in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4561154,00.html

I'm more interested in getting the members of the NPD to leave the country. And in contrast to them I'm not particularly choosy regarding their destination. The most important thing is that they're somewhere else. So, any suggestions?

[Hash]

Alberta.

[Tender Branson]

Is it random?

Probably not. The FDP, Greens and Die Linke would have been first somewhere is that was ramdom.

It depends on the previous election results in each state. In 2005, the SPD finished first in 12 states, CDU and CSU in 4 ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Infratest-dimap poll for ARD (August 11-12, 1000 Germans 18+)

CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 22%
FDP: 15%
Greens: 12%
Left: 9%
Others: 5%

Western Germany:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 16%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
Others: 5%

Eastern Germany:

CDU/CSU: 31%
SPD: 23%
Left: 22%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 8%
Others: 6%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Merkel (CDU): 62%
Steinmeier (SPD): 23%

Approval Ratings for frontrunners:

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 72%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 57%

Turnout estimate:

71% will definitely vote
17% will probably vote
6% will probably not vote
5% will definitely not vote

http://service.tagesschau.de/infografik/deutschlandtrend/dt08/index.shtml?2009_0813extra

[big bad fab]

Die Linke below 10% ? (and behind the SPD in the East)
Do we see the same in other opinion polls ?