2009 State and Federal elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2009 State and Federal elections in Germany  (Read 218271 times)
Hans-im-Glück
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #450 on: August 14, 2009, 06:57:42 AM »

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #451 on: August 14, 2009, 07:30:51 AM »

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.
In comparison with the past, OK, but I was talking about this year's opinion polls.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #452 on: August 14, 2009, 07:54:29 AM »

I'm more interested in getting the members of the NPD to leave the country. And in contrast to them I'm not particularly choosy regarding their destination. The most important thing is that they're somewhere else. So, any suggestions?

South-America??

Ok, it was easy...

The best is that you treat your problems.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #453 on: August 14, 2009, 08:47:56 AM »

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.
In comparison with the past, OK, but I was talking about this year's opinion polls.

I speak about this year Wink. This is a good side for opinion polls in Germany and this are the polls for East Germany:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm

Since January 2009 the difference between Linke and SPD is  not more than 6%. Mostly it's the same or the Linke have 1-3% more.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #454 on: August 14, 2009, 10:05:02 AM »

The age difference between the models on the SPD and CDU posters is mildly amusing.

(scusi if someone's mentioned it before but) the CDU posters are of the "leaders are always right" type. These are their members of the cabinet.

lol

btw, German election posters always seem weirdly shiny (if that's the right word to use).
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #455 on: August 14, 2009, 10:05:56 AM »

Not after four or five weeks at a sunny location. Grin
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #456 on: August 14, 2009, 06:10:50 PM »

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.
In comparison with the past, OK, but I was talking about this year's opinion polls.

I speak about this year Wink. This is a good side for opinion polls in Germany and this are the polls for East Germany:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm

Since January 2009 the difference between Linke and SPD is  not more than 6%. Mostly it's the same or the Linke have 1-3% more.
Oh, deeply sorry, I've read "polls" as "elections" (2005) and not "opinion polls".
Thanks for the numbers.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #457 on: August 15, 2009, 06:28:37 AM »

On the 4Th September the Wahl-o-Mat for the Federal Election will be start.
http://www.bpb.de/methodik/XQJYR3
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #458 on: August 15, 2009, 12:39:08 PM »

German Campaign Gets Much-Needed Dose of Humor

By David Crossland in Berlin

Germany's election campaign is being livened up by satirical pledges to rebuild the Berlin Wall, send pensioners to the east, provide free cosmetic surgery for everyone and install a rabbit as the national symbol. Humor is urgently needed at this time of political torpor, comedians say.

Germany has been at pains to keep its politics as dull as possible since 1945, understandably so, some might say. Consensus and compromise prevail, and the scandals tend to be too complicated or too trivial to keep casual observers interested for long.



It has gotten worse in the last four years. Political debate has been stifled as the two main parties, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and the rival center-left Social Democrats, have been locked in an awkward coalition in which they've had to shelve their differences.

And there's a very real chance that coalition may be repeated for four more years after the Sept. 27 general election.

What Germany's political scene needs now more than ever is a refreshing injection of satire, or at least humor, and tentative attempts are underway to meet that need.

A bona fide party called Die Partei (The Party) is campaigning with a satirical program to rebuild the Berlin Wall, turn eastern Germany into a nature reserve and populate it with the nation's pensioners.

And one of the country's best-known comedians, Hape Kerkeling, has formed his own mock party that's "conservative, liberal, left-wing and a bit ecological" and pledges to provide free cosmetic surgery for everyone.

Bunny to Replace German Eagle

Its catchphrase, possibly based on a misunderstanding of Barack Obama's famous slogan, is "Yes, Weekend." And it wants to abolish the eagle as the national symbol and replace it with the "Federal Rabbit."


The media, desperate for a bit of light relief during what has so far been a downright boring election, pounced on Kerkeling's campaign. His news conference in Berlin on Tuesday to launch a mock-documentary style feature film about his candidacy attracted the kind of attention usually reserved for Merkel -- news channel n-tv carried it live, and some 100 reporters unwittingly became extras in his PR coup, feeding him questions and lapping up his jokes.

What about swine flu, Kerkeling, posing as his alter ego Horst Schlämmer with hideous false teeth, gray wig and a dirty trenchcoat, was asked. "I'm against it," he replied.

Other nuggets followed. His first foreign trip as chancellor will be to the Netherlands because that's just across the border from his home in the small town of Grevenbroich, which will incidentally become the new capital. He also had a message for the youth of today: "Children are our future."

Schlämmer, head of the HSP or Horst Schlämmer Partei, also promises a monthly income of €2,500 for everyone from birth.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,640663,00.html

Will the boldened part lead to Lewis voting invalid and write in Schlämmer ? Grin

According to a new Forsa poll, Schlämmer's party would actually receive 18% if it really stands in the federal elections ...
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #459 on: August 16, 2009, 05:15:32 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2009, 05:17:25 AM by Old Europe »

A bona fide party called Die Partei (The Party) is campaigning with a satirical program to rebuild the Berlin Wall, turn eastern Germany into a nature reserve and populate it with the nation's pensioners.

Well, not anymore I guess. "The Party" failed to win ballot status in all German states.



According to a new Forsa poll, Schlämmer's party would actually receive 18% if it really stands in the federal elections ...

Not, it wouldn't. It could. The poll didn't asked if you want to vote for the "Horst Schlämmer Party", it asked if you could imagine to vote for the party. It was one of the "voter potential" polls. The CDU would probably get at least 50% in such a poll, because all FDP supporters, a majority of all swing voters and perhaps some of the more conservative SPD supporters would say that they could imagine to vote for the CDU. Doesn't mean that they would ever get such a result in an actual election.

And last but not least, since the poll asked about a non-existing joke party you can't really expect that someone responds in a realistic manner anyway. Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #460 on: August 16, 2009, 05:35:56 AM »

I approve of the Federal Rabbit.

And the new Wahlleiter's odd new interpretations of ballot access law (re the Partei and others, but especially the Freie Union) will create work for the Constitutional Court. After the election, for legal reasons. I don't think it's safe to *rule out* that the whole election will be tossed out. Remember Hamburg 93. Grin

 
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
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« Reply #461 on: August 16, 2009, 06:25:21 AM »

After this very boring SPD and CDU campaign posters something more interesting Wink It's from the Greens of the city of Kaarst.



The translation of the poster is:

That's the only reason to vote black, It's time for Green. (black is the color of the CDU, they are called "the Blacks") Cheesy
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Bono
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« Reply #462 on: August 18, 2009, 03:28:53 PM »

That's hot.
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Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #463 on: August 19, 2009, 01:24:20 PM »

New Polls for in Germany for the genaral election:

Forsa (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      37 %
SPD      22 %
FDP      13 %
DIE LINKE      11 %
GRÜNE      12 %
Sonstige      5 %

IfD Allensbach (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      36.5 %
SPD      23 %
FDP      14.5 %
DIE LINKE      9 %
GRÜNE      13 %
Sonstige      4 %

Emnid/N24 (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      36 %
SPD      23 %
FDP      14 %
DIE LINKE      10 %
GRÜNE      12 %
Sonstige      5 %

No big changes, still a majority for CDU/CSU - FDP
Forsa: CDU/CSU-FDP 50%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%
Allensbach: CDU/CSU-FDP 51%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%
Emind: CDU/CSU-FDP 50%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #464 on: August 20, 2009, 06:10:10 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2009, 06:17:49 AM by Old Europe »

Btw, Lyndon LaRouche's wife is running as a direct candidate in Berlin-Mitte. Cheesy In 2005, she ran in Leipzig I and received 0.6% of the vote.

BüSo, the German arm of the "LaRouche movement", is on the ballot in seven German states this time.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #465 on: August 21, 2009, 12:05:22 AM »

3 new polls by Infratest-dimap for the August 30 State Elections:

Saarland:

CDU: 38% (-10 compared with 2004)
SPD: 26% (-5)
Left: 15% (+13)
FDP: 9% (+4)
Greens: 6% (nc)
Others: 6% (-2)

Tie between Red-Red-Green and CDU/FDP.

Sachsen:

CDU: 38% (-3 compared with 2004)
Left: 21% (-3)
SPD: 13% (+3)
FDP: 12% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-5)
Others: 5% (+1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Thüringen:

CDU: 34% (-9 compared with 2004)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 19% (+5)
FDP: 8% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+2)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 5% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

http://service.tagesschau.de/infografik/deutschlandtrend/dt08/index.shtml?ardvorwahlumfrage2009_08
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #466 on: August 21, 2009, 02:23:51 PM »

Is red-red-green possible in Thuringia?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #467 on: August 21, 2009, 02:28:43 PM »

Absolutely.
The official position of the SPD is "only if we get to be state pm" (not sure about the Greens, but I've seen it taken for granted that that's their position too.) Obviously, the Left would loathe to bypass its first-ever chance to head a government. Still, the spin machine is in full swing already, a la "well, if (SPD+Greens)>Left, then a majority of the government MdLs wants the SPD to head the government".
Hope it won't come across as counting unlaid eggs...

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #468 on: August 21, 2009, 02:41:09 PM »

3 new polls by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the August 30 State Elections:

Saarland:

CDU: 36% (-12 compared with 2004)
SPD: 26% (-5)
Left: 16% (+14)
FDP: 9% (+4)
Greens: 6% (nc)
Others: 7% (-1)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Sachsen:

CDU: 42% (+1 compared with 2004)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 11% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 6% (-3)
Others: 4% (-1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Thüringen:

CDU: 35% (-8 compared with 2004)
Left: 25% (-1)
SPD: 18% (+3)
FDP: 10% (+6)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 7% (-1)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #469 on: August 21, 2009, 02:50:03 PM »

Sample of the official ballot in Saarland.

(it says: "You have 1 vote" ... and then look where the line with the arrow is ending)



Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #470 on: August 21, 2009, 02:54:19 PM »

The Saarland has three large regional constituencies, with some seats distributed statewide to make it wholly proportional. No vote splitting.
I suppose the ninth slot went to a party that didn't have a slate for Neunkirchen... but it looks weirdly appropriate to isolate the NPD like that. Grin
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #471 on: August 21, 2009, 03:01:45 PM »

Here's the root of all ballot paper evil. The Katherine Harris of Saarland:



Karin Schmitz-Meßner (State Election Supervisor)

Grin
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #472 on: August 21, 2009, 09:37:38 PM »

Saarland doesn't do MMP? Huh, I never knew that. Are there any other Laender with different voting systems?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #473 on: August 21, 2009, 09:43:24 PM »

Saarland doesn't do MMP? Huh, I never knew that. Are there any other Laender with different voting systems?

Baden-Württemberg has a sensible system. There are no lists; rather, the highest-polling losing constituency candidates are elected.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #474 on: August 22, 2009, 01:32:18 AM »

Saarland doesn't do MMP? Huh, I never knew that. Are there any other Laender with different voting systems?

In Bavaria we have 2 votes. One for the constituency and one for the Party list of the region (Bavaria have 7 regions). Both Votes will add together. In the vote for the Party you must make your cross not at the party, you must vote a person. The candidate with the most votes in every party is then number one of the list.

Here is my ballot paper (Party list vote) of the election 2008:

http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/stdscripts/dp_downloading.asp?datei=3710.pdf
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