2009 State and Federal elections in Germany (user search)
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Author Topic: 2009 State and Federal elections in Germany  (Read 218992 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: November 10, 2008, 09:17:23 AM »
Should we also include the 2009 Austrian state elections here like in the 2008 edition or should I create a seperate topic ?

There will be elections in Salzburg, Vorarlberg, Upper Austria and Carinthia (also local elections) as well as European Parliament Elections.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2008, 02:45:08 AM »
2 new Hesse polls:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF/FAZ

CDU: 41 (+4)
SPD: 26 (-11)
Greens: 12 (+4)
FDP: 12 (+3)
The Left: 5 (nc)
Others: 4 (nc)

Infratest-dimap for HR

CDU - 41
SPD - 23
Greens - 14
FDP - 13
The Left - 6
Others - 3

Majority for CDU/FDP.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2008, 01:16:00 PM »
Based on Old Europe's new name:



Smiley

But isn't Roland Koch the real Hessian Barack Obama ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2008, 10:37:50 AM »
Interestingly, Secretary of State Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) is now more popular than Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) (74% approve of the job Steinmeier is doing and 65% approve of the job Merkel is doing), but according to 2 polls the SPD doesn't benefit and Merkel would defeat Steinmeier by a wide margin in a direct vote for Chancellor:

Forsa

Merkel - 51%
Steinmeier - 23%

CDU - 38%
SPD - 23%

Infratest dimap

Merkel - 52%
Steinmeier - 35%

CDU - 37%
SPD - 23%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2008, 01:30:05 AM »
New Forsa poll for Hesse:

CDU: 42%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
The Left: 6%
Others: 4%

Strong majority for CDU-FDP ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2008, 02:27:02 AM »
Quote from: Frodo on December 20, 2008, 06:18:08 PM
I like the numbers for the CDP. 

How are they polling on the federal level? 

Here's a summary of the latest federal election polls:

CDU/CSU: 36-38%
SPD: 24-26%
FDP: 11-13%
The Left: 11-13%
Greens: 10-11%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

But that can rapidely change. At the end of the 2005 campaign the polls showed something similar, just to see that CDU/CSU won the election by 1%. Don't know though if the polls were that wrong or the CDU/CSU so bad and SPD so strong ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2008, 08:37:36 AM »
Quote from: das Blut auf deiner Wange on December 28, 2008, 08:26:26 AM
Pirate Party (an anti copyright laws party Grin First ran last year, when they got 0.3%. )

I've heard they are polling at 7-21% right now in Sweden ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2009, 01:59:57 AM »
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Thuringia - Dieter Althaus (CDU) - was badly injured while skiing in Austria. He crashed with a Slovak woman, who died on the way to hospital. Althaus suffered severe head injuries, brain bleeding and is now in coma.

In other news, Merkel is still rated the politician with the best leadership qualities. According to a new Forsa poll, Merkel got 63 points on a scale from 0-100, with Foreign-Minister Steinmeier second with 60 points.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2009, 01:28:19 AM »
New Infratest-dimap poll for Hesse:

CDU: 42% (47 seats)
SPD: 24% (27 seats)
FDP: 13% (15 seats)
Greens: 13% (15 seats)
The Left: 5% (6 seats)
Others: 3%

Strong majority for CDU-FDP.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2009, 02:14:10 AM »
New Hesse poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 13%
The Left: 5%
Others: 3%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2009, 01:26:09 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2009, 01:30:17 AM by Tender Branson »
Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on January 11, 2009, 03:42:56 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 11, 2009, 02:14:10 AM
New Hesse poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 13%
The Left: 5%
Others: 3%

just give 1% from the Linke to the SPD, and I'll be in heaven.

Your wishes may come true:

New Forsa poll for the newspaper "Frankfurter Rundschau"

CDU: 41%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 15%
Greens: 13%

Below treshold:

The Left: 4%
Others: 3%



The SPD really suxx, despite Schäfer-Gümbel becoming more and more popular compared with Governor Koch. Koch would defeat Schäfer-Gümbel by only 39-32 in a direct vote for Governor, compared with 44-24 in the same poll in December ...



What's even more stunning:



With only a few days until the election, only 49% of SPD voters know that Schäfer-Gümbel is the frontrunner of the SPD ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2009, 03:59:01 AM »
Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on January 11, 2009, 03:02:16 PM
I actually wanted to vote for the CDU woman for the district vote....but her "campaign ads" in the mail gave me a pretty good reason not to....

basically....vote for me because I'm not quite as bad as the SPD....

Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on January 18, 2009, 03:51:33 AM
Well, the polls have been open for the last 2 hours.

I just got back from voting.

I was still kind of undecided....but I stuck with my choice:

district vote: CDU
party list: FDP

That CDU-woman ?

http://www.silke-lautenschlaeger.de
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2009, 04:01:41 AM »
As for my predictions (list vote):

CDU - 43%
SPD - 22%
FPD - 14%
Greens - 12%
Left - 4%
Others - 5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2009, 04:10:42 AM »
Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on January 11, 2009, 02:35:21 PM
What do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

I'd guess the following:

Lautenschläger (CDU): 48% (+8)
Koch (SPD): 34% (-7)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2009, 04:16:38 AM »
Question: Is there any form of "Wahlkabine" for Hessen ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2009, 08:55:49 AM »

Translation: CDU-Landslide
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2009, 09:00:48 AM »
Interesting:

I just noticed that Schäfer-Gümbel's wife looks like himself - just with different hair ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2009, 09:15:18 AM »
At 2pm, turnout is down by about 5% compared with 2008, from 35% to 30%.

In Frankfurt, turnout is down from 34% to 28% ..
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2009, 11:54:18 AM »
LOLZ !

7 minutes before poll closings, N-TV reports that Andrea Ypsilanti will announce her resignation as SPD-chair shortly after the first exit polls are published ...

Must be a horrible day for the SPD ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2009, 11:55:19 AM »
BTW, the N-TV Live Stream with Exit Polls in 5 minutes:

http://www.n-tv.de/61215.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2009, 12:03:32 PM »

Bradley-Effect ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2009, 12:07:51 PM »
Quote from: Attorney General Franzl on January 18, 2009, 12:04:07 PM

I dunno why, but the CDU....in the last couple of elections....is always MUCH lower than expected.


Let's wait for the counting. 1 year ago I think that the first exit poll showed the SPD ahead by 1, but after all votes were counted, the CDU pulled slightly ahead.

Yay Franzl, your CDU-Woman is interviewed ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2009, 12:26:10 PM »
Eagerly awaiting the Frankfurt am Main VI results ... Grin

In which district of Frankfurt is Lewis actually in ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2009, 12:27:45 PM »
Quote from: Hep Naoned, Breizh Ebet on January 18, 2009, 12:26:33 PM
Anyways. Any good sites for live results when they'll start rolling in?

http://www.statistik-hessen.de/wahlkreise.htm

(Districts)

http://www.statistik-hessen.de/gemeinden.htm

(Cities)

General map and results:

http://wahl.hr-online.de/aktuell/index.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2009, 12:55:50 PM »
1st town is in: Hesseneck

SPD: 42.6 (-8.0)
CDU: 28.4 (-1.9)
FDP: 11.1 (+7.2)
Greens: 10.0 (+4.1)
Left: 6.1 (+0.7)
Nazis: 0.8 (-0.5)
Republicans: 0.6 (+0.1)
BüSo: 0.3 (+0.3)
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