2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

Anyway, I'm extremely pleased the Köhler was re-elected. He's definitely one of my favorite politicians (if you can even call him one) at the present time.

I'm very surprised that Horst Köhler is a favorite politician of you (or for anyone;-) ) He looks and speaks like a "dyslexic in a tuxedo"

Her says nothing and when  he  say something you hear only platitudes. Okay, other candidates aren't very good, but they can speak (do you really think Horstl can this). Somehow or other, the Bundespräsident (federal president) is a position witch nobody really needs and everybody can make this job.

[Hans-im-Glück]

And somehow, almost every President ends up being popular. This is nothing new. Herzog was worse.

That's true.  It's every time so that the people find the president good after 4 years. I find Herzog bad too, but i think he was 5% better. Maybe because I'm from Bavaria

[Hans-im-Glück]

Latest ARD-Deutschlandtrend by Infratest dimap (July 28-29, 1000 Germans 18+):

CDU/CSU: 36% (West: 38%, East: 28%)
SPD: 24% (West: 24%, East: 23%)
FDP: 14% (West: 15%, East: 11%)
Greens: 13% (West: 14%, East: 9%)
Left: 10% (West: 6%, East: 24%)
Others: 3% (West: 3%, East: 5%)

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

Merkel (CDU) vs. Steinmeier (SPD): 60-25

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 70%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 59%

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend752.html

Steinmeier have no chance to win the election. His only hope is that CDU/CSU and FDP get no majority. The he can stay as foreign minister.

For all they say in the last election the SPD had a enormous comeback i must say that Steinmeir is not Schröder. Schröder was a very good election campaigner and Steinmeier isn't this.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The one Green seat is in West Berlin, isn't it?

Yes, this is the constituency Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and he is the winner of this mandate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Christian_Str%C3%B6bele

[Hans-im-Glück]

The one Green seat is in West Berlin, isn't it?

Yes, this is the constituency Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and he is the winner of this mandate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Christian_Str%C3%B6bele

The seat is in East and West Berlin at the same time?

Yes. This district was buid 2002 with Kreuzberg (West Berlin) and Friedrichshain (East Berlin). Kreuzberg is the center of the Turkish comunity in Berlin.

[Hans-im-Glück]

What were the results there in 2005?

The 2005 result for Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg

First vote (for the direct candidate):

SPD      20,7
CDU      11,3
Green   43,3
FDP         2,7
Left       18,0
Others     4,0

Second vote (for the party list):

SPD       37,3
CDU       11,0
Green    21,8
FDP          4,6
Left        20,8
Others      4,5

[Hans-im-Glück]

What makes that seat so Green?

Not the Turkish community?

This is a center of the left-alternative people too. This are people witch are very Pro-foreigners. Maybe not the majority, but extreme many of the "Turkish-German" vote Green, because they make politics for them. The Greens are 100% the friendliest party to foreigners.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is the FDP polling so well?

I think the most are disappointed CDU-Voters. The new FDP-voters are thinking the CDU is to left in economics. More like a small SPD .  In the last elections a half of the FDP-voters say they like the CDU more. The SPD lose many, but more to the Green, the Left, the most to the Nonvoters and a little bit to the CDU/CSU.

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the last polls the Linke and the SPD was in East Germany both at 20 -25%. So it isn't a surprise when the SPD is 1% in front. On the other hand from the Linke you hear nothing new. It's normal that their numbers go down, but they have a good chance to get more than 10% in September.

In comparison with the past, OK, but I was talking about this year's opinion polls.

I speak about this year . This is a good side for opinion polls in Germany and this are the polls for East Germany:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm

Since January 2009 the difference between Linke and SPD is  not more than 6%. Mostly it's the same or the Linke have 1-3% more.

[Hans-im-Glück]

On the 4Th September the Wahl-o-Mat for the Federal Election will be start.
http://www.bpb.de/methodik/XQJYR3

[Hans-im-Glück]

After this very boring SPD and CDU campaign posters something more interesting It's from the Greens of the city of Kaarst.



The translation of the poster is:

That's the only reason to vote black, It's time for Green. (black is the color of the CDU, they are called "the Blacks")

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Polls for in Germany for the genaral election:

Forsa (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      37 %
SPD      22 %
FDP      13 %
DIE LINKE      11 %
GRÜNE      12 %
Sonstige      5 %

IfD Allensbach (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      36.5 %
SPD      23 %
FDP      14.5 %
DIE LINKE      9 %
GRÜNE      13 %
Sonstige      4 %

Emnid/N24 (19.08.2009)

CDU/CSU      36 %
SPD      23 %
FDP      14 %
DIE LINKE      10 %
GRÜNE      12 %
Sonstige      5 %

No big changes, still a majority for CDU/CSU - FDP
Forsa: CDU/CSU-FDP 50%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%
Allensbach: CDU/CSU-FDP 51%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%
Emind: CDU/CSU-FDP 50%  SPD/GRÜNE/LINKE 45%

[Hans-im-Glück]

Saarland doesn't do MMP? Huh, I never knew that. Are there any other Laender with different voting systems?

In Bavaria we have 2 votes. One for the constituency and one for the Party list of the region (Bavaria have 7 regions). Both Votes will add together. In the vote for the Party you must make your cross not at the party, you must vote a person. The candidate with the most votes in every party is then number one of the list.

Here is my ballot paper (Party list vote) of the election 2008:

http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/stdscripts/dp_downloading.asp?datei=3710.pdf

[Hans-im-Glück]

@ Lewis

4 more years of a Grand Coalition would be the Dead of the SPD. Then they will down under 20%. The only chance for the SPD is the Opposition, then there will be very ugly fighting between the different wings, but the SPD need it. The Schröder Politics nearly destroys them. The base of the SPD was the connection to the Unions, but this is over and out. The Unions don't trust this Idiots in the SPD anymore.

It would be a very big sensation, but when the CDU/CSU-FDP have a majority after the election, it means not that 100% comes a coalition of them. In the CDU/CSU not all think a coalition with the FDP is a good thing. They think it's easier to govern with a weak SPD, like a FDP after a very good result for them. They know, that the FDP wants some things (cut the income tax) that's impracticable. That would ruin to country.

For the state elections in Thüringen i don't see that the people there have fear about a Red-Red-Green coalition. I know many people from there and the most of them can't see Althaus (the CDU Governor) anymore. Some say he is better in skiing like to govern ) The only chance for Althaus is the Green, they are very weak there, don't come in Parlament.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Hi Franzl, Welcome back

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

I understand, you are not sure which lie is better.

CDU - moderate tax cutting
FDP - massive tax cutting   

For me:
I will vote for the Greens. I'm not sure i like all they want and deep inside I'm not Green, I'm Red, but I'm very disappointed by the SPD ans don't trust the Linke (Gysi is Okay, but Lafontaine is more than terrible)

[Hans-im-Glück]

My vote is still unclear though....undecided between CDU and FDP...not that it matters much really.

I understand, you are not sure which lie is better.

Every party lies....

That's true

I guess I'll have to vote Green. But only because it wouldn't make much sense to campaign for one party and then vote for another.

Anyway... any guesses who's going to be SPD chairman in October/November this year?

This is a very difficult question. There is nobody with charisma and over the most leaders of the SPD is the shadow of the Schröder politics and this is the biggest reason for the SPD-disaster they will have in the election.

[Hans-im-Glück]

@ Old Europe

Wowereit is the only well-known man of the SPD in the federal states. All other you can forget. I like it to see him as chairman of the SPD, but there are some problems. He makes the way free for a Red-Red-Green coalition and many in the SPD are against this. It would be a ugly fight inside the party. On the other hand, his results in Berlin aren't so good. He haven't a big basis in the SPD.

Steinbrück would be only a interim solution. He is not a man for a new beginning, but he is better than Steinmeier. Steinmeier is after the election politically dead. I don't see a future for him. Only The CDU/CSU - FDP get no majority.

When the SPD get a PM in a bigger State, then it is easier. But where is the Man or Woman to win NRW, Niedersachsen or Hessen (i don't speak about Baden-Württemberg or Bavaria ) From a smaller State it's possible too, but Heiko Maas, or Ralf Steger aren't very big names in their own state. Here in Bavaria they are unknown and faceless . Matschie have more potential, but first he must win in Thüringen and in the moment he is in place 3.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Wowereit or Gabriel.

Then Wowereit. Or did you think with Gabriel have the SPD a future?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Better than Steinmeier, anyhow.

Nearly everybody is better like Steinmeier He is a little bit like a sleeping pill  for me.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Well, here is my prediction:

Saarland:

CDU: 36% (-11.5)
SPD: 25,5% (-5,5)
Left: 17% (+15)
FDP: 10% (+7)
Greens: 6,5% (+0,5)
Others: 5% (-3.5)

Sachsen:

CDU: 39% (-2)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 13% (+3)
FDP: 11% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 7% (-2)
Others: 4% (-1)

Thüringen:

CDU: 36% (-7)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 19% (+4.5)
FDP: 9,5% (+5,5)
Greens: 5,5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 3% (-2)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Exit polls from the German television 18:00  ZDF:

Saarland

CDU   35
SPD      26
GRÜNE   6
FDP   8,5
LINKE   19,5

Sachsen

CDU   40,5
LINKE   21
SPD   10
NPD   5,2
FDP   10,5
GRÜNE   6

Thüringen

CDU   31
LINKE   27
SPD   19
FDP   8,5
GRÜNE   6

[Hans-im-Glück]

No surpirses. Over 21% for the Linke in Saarland is very much

I've said it before the people in Thüringen have enough from Althaus

Sachsen is a very strange state. I live only 7Km from Sachsen, but I cannot understand this people

Red-Red-Green in Saarland and Thüringen, CDU-FDP in Sachsen

[Hans-im-Glück]

The last time when it give a Red-Red Majority in Thüringen (1923) sends President Ebert the Reichswehr. Is the Bundeswehr still in the barracks?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Can Bavaria invade Thuringia and Saxony?

Maybe, but i don't hear the tanks going north