2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Election Calendar:

18th January - Hesse
23rd May - Presidential election (lol)
7th June - European Elections, local elections in, like, half the country
30th August - Saarland, Thuringia, Saxony (nice timing by state CDU governments...)
27th September - federal elections, Brandenburg

[minionofmidas]

I'd say separate topic. It's a separate country.

[minionofmidas]

But isn't Roland Koch the real Hessian Barack Obama ?

No, he's the Hessian Tom DeLay. And that's being mean to a certain Texan gentleman.

[minionofmidas]

SPD posters seem to be making the same mistake as in 2002... no matter how disgusted the median member of Hesse's eligible voter population is with Roland Koch ("physically revolted" seems about right), that's not enough to get him to the polls and vote for somebody else.

They'll need a positive reason too. Last year's campaign provided them. It also created the (false) impression that the SPD had somehow united behind the relatively left-wing program. Ironically, the SPD is far more united now then it was a year ago, but try convincing the average voter of that...
Meh. At least this will make for a strong Green result (again, as in 2002.)

[minionofmidas]

But that can rapidely change. At the end of the 2005 campaign the polls showed something similar, just to see that CDU/CSU won the election by 1%. Don't know though if the polls were that wrong or the CDU/CSU so bad and SPD so strong ...

The polling models are dead sh!tty. Rapid poll swings in Germany* occur due to two factors - swings within the basic political camps (such as the huge last minute swing from the CDU to the FDP in 2005. Or the big swings among what one might have believed to be core Green voters to the SPD in Hesse and Hamburg early this year). And swings between one of the camps - usually their main party - and the "They're All Crap, I won't Vote!" camp. And though the CDU isn't immune to that phenomenon (at least not while in office) it is far more common among SPD leaners. Which is why a centrist course can be electoral poison for the SPD. All of this is common knowledge, and *should be* factorable into a polling model (though of course the confidence interval would have to be huge). It is not.

*Or maybe make that West Germany. East Germany tics differently, and Bavaria tics differently *again* (though in that case there's an intermediate zone in southern Württemberg and parts of Franconia. Although arguably there's an intermediate zone between East and West Germany too - namely West (and parts of East) Berlin.

[minionofmidas]

Lists for the Hesse state election this year (apparently this is in ballot order):

CDU
SPD
FDP
Greens
Left
REP
FW
NPD
Pirate Party (an anti copyright laws party First ran last year, when they got 0.3%. )
BüSo (LaRouchiacs)

Fewer parties than usual. Happens with early elections - tiny parties find it harder to fill out the necessary paperwork, find the handful of signatures needed, etc.

Direct candidates: CDU (same as last time except in V), SPD (same as last time everywhere), FDP, Greens, Left, REP have candidates everywhere. No NPD candidate in V. BüSo candidates in III and V. An independent (never heard of him) in IV.
New Green and Left candidates in my constituency... which is a good thing since the Left candidate here last time was not somebody I'd ever vote for, not even as a protest...

[minionofmidas]

What constituency be "V"?

Frankfurt 5. Bornheim, North End, East End. Much the smallest in area. And much the greenest in election results.

[minionofmidas]

What constituency be "V"?

Frankfurt 5. Bornheim, North End, East End. Much the smallest in area. And much the greenest in election results.

Why is there no CDU candidate?

There is one. It's just the only constituency with a new candidate from them.
Was that really that ambiguous?

[minionofmidas]

Ballot Design

They've been looking like that since about forever. Color varies by constituency (not sure if they've remained the same throughout). Examples are from Offenbach and Wiesbaden East. Obviously the "Muster" bit doesn't belong.

[minionofmidas]

There won't be a "Tv duel", rather there'll be a discussion with all five leading candidates (Koch, Schäfer-Gümbel, Hahn, Al Wazir, van Ooyen).
Three days before the election.

[minionofmidas]

Comparing with 2003 in regards to the extent of SPD/Green vote splitting (probably a reasonable assumption), I would hold that Frankfurt V is basically an SPD certainty at current polling, but whatever.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis, what do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

That's the eastern bit, right. That was one of the more surprising SPD gains of the night last year around (and, as such, a certain pickup now) - somewhat similar seats (around Hanau, for example) tended to stay with the CDU.
Wasn't it the Education Moron's own seat or something?

(now goes check a few things)
Oh, it wasn't. Got the seats of the two female (in one case former) cabinet members from the Darmstadt area confused, I see. Well, she doesn't seem to have any sort of personal vote either.

            List 2008          List 2003          Direct 2008      Direct 2003
CDU    22.334    37,5    29.552    50,6    23.899    40,3    31.765    55,1
SPD    22.553    37,9    16.735    28,7    24.108    40,7    17.676    30,7

10 points sounds like a low estimate, really. It somewhat depends what all those predicted extra FDP voters are doing with their direct vote, of course. I don't claim to be any good at predicting the bourgeois camp's internal dynamics. (unlike on the two group's relative sizes, especially as a function of turnout. And unlike the left half of the country's internal dynamics.)

[minionofmidas]

Random question. Why is northern Hesse strongly SPD (overall)? I'd assume it's an industrialized area?

I assume all those safe CDU districts around Frankfurt are generally wealthy districts?

To the West, Northwest, and to a lesser extent the Southeast especially, yeah. Some of the wealthiest bits of Germany (along with the suburbs south of Munich.)

Northern Hesse (there are areas somewhat like it elsewhere) is a complicated matter. It didn't use to be Social Democratic. Protestant, not affluent, and not dominated by gentry, these areas tended to vote mostly conservative or national liberal in the Kaiserreich and the Weimar era but occasionally loved themselves a strange right-wing protest tradition (antisemitism, nationalism and anti-Marxism were part of the mix. But so was saving the small business owner from rich nationally-operating competition, the lender from his creditor. And just a general diffuse vibe of being an insurgent, opposition, "out" group.) Obviously they liked themselves some Nazis, too - they got some of their best results here.

How these places came to vote SPD in the 50s is hard to comprehend. Guess it just was the only acceptable opposition still around. The early years of the FRG, it looked like it would be quite the arch-Catholic, Rhenanian, Pro-French dominated country. Small surprise they didn't like that, really (especially the Catholic bit).

(Mind you, there was a Socialist tradition around Kassel too. Which is where the SPD is still strongest now.)

[minionofmidas]

The FDP did outpoll the CDU statewide in 1949-54. (shakes head and grins at SPD winning Hochtaunus, or whatever it was called then, in 49. Looks absurd now.)

[minionofmidas]

Here be Kaiserreich era maps (oh, how I long for any source with constituency-by-constituency results, rather than lists of winners. None seems to exist, in print or over the net. The Constituencies remained unchanged throughout, so this should be an easy task... The guy who made this site looked at official gov't publications from the relevant election years.)

http://www.wahlen-in-deutschland.de/akurtwalg.htm

Links to years at the top.
Man, the "German Socials" rock northern Hesse from 1890 on.
1912 is the first time the SPD wins in Kassel. They'd been holding seats in the Rhein-Main area since 1881.

[minionofmidas]

2008 results, City of Offenbach (which is a constituency).

CDU guy won by 676 votes. Though the SPD was ahead in the list vote.

Offenbach includes three outlying historical villages that are now affluent suburbs.
CDU guy won Bieber, the largest (day vote only) by 645 votes.
CDU guy won the other two combined (day vote only) by 638 votes.
CDU guy won the postal vote, city wide, by 603 votes.

There's a neat symmetry here...

[minionofmidas]

-Kühne, Thomas 1994: Handbuch der Wahlen zum preußischen Abgeordnetenhaus: 1867 - 1918; Wahlergebnisse, Wahlbuendnisse und Wahlkandidaten. Duesseldorf: Droste.

Yeah, I know that book. That book for Reichstag elections is basically what I want.

Thanks for the tips!

[minionofmidas]

-_-

Reibel is available at the BZG (why not at the StuB? Strange... if it were there I'd have noticed it before...)

[minionofmidas]

The matchup thing is presumably more a comment on Koch's personal unpopularity than much else.

57% disapprovals, according to the same poll.

Mind you, the SPD's are worse...

But I still don't see the cosmic justice in the FDP profitting. Come on people, if you don't like the Koch government nor the opposition, vote Far Right or Freie Wähler. Not that foaming-at-the-mouth Koch sidekick Hahn. Whose intransigence last year, of course, gave us these elections...

[minionofmidas]

-_-

Reibel is available at the BZG (why not at the StuB? Strange... if it were there I'd have noticed it before...)

I've been busy with that book all day.

And I am now ready to do a simplified presentation of all Hessian (Hessen-Nassau, Hessen-Darmstadt) election results of the period!



Wiesbaden 1 (note: map's wrong. This constituency did reach the Main river, 2 and 6 do not border or come anywhere near to.)

136k inhabitants in 1890, 210k in 1910.
46% industrial or artisanal occupations, 36% agricultural in 1895, 52% and 28% in 1907 (note: these percentages are of men who have an occupation (excluding both rentiers and paupers). They also exclude military. The third category needed to get to 100 includes trades, professions, but also service occupations.)

51% catholic, 47% protestant in 1890

1890 SPD 31, Liberal* 24, Center 23, National Liberal 22
Runoff: Liberals 64, SPD 36
1893 SPD 34, NL 28, Center 23, Liberal 14
Runoff: SPD 50, NL 50
1898 SPD 38, Center 29, NL 22, Liberal 11
Runoff: Center 54, SPD 46
1903 SPD 43, Center 29, NL 22, Agrarian 6
Runoff: Center 51, SPD 49
1907 SPD 42, Center 26, NL 24, Liberal 8
Runoff: SPD 55, Center 45 (turnout way down)
1912 SPD 47, Center 22, NL 14, Liberal 14
Runoff: SPD 59, Center 41

* there were several Liberal Parties (often called Left Liberals in modern literature, which overstates their Leftyness. Sometimes called Decidedly Liberals during the period) in Germany over the period. I will retain the distinction between the Democrats, aka People's Party, active mostly in South Germany but also in Frankfurt, and the Prussian Freisinn or Progress Parties - which despite their numeros splits I'm lumping as "Liberals". The Agrarian (Bund der Landwirte) in 1903 was probably running with Liberal support or something. Apart from that, the same four parties ran candidates here every election. That's actually pretty unusual(!)
I'm remarking on turnout when it's 10 points or more up or down compared to the first round - a sign of unusual going-ons (such as an organized abstention drive by a party locked out of the runoff etc.)


Wiesbaden 2
148k inhabitants in 1890, 222k in 1910.
38% industrial/artisanal, 35% trades, professions, services in 1890. 41 and 37 in 1907
57% protestant, 41% catholic in 1890
1890 Liberal 53, SPD 26, NL 21
1893 Liberal 27, SPD 26, Liberal (2) 21, Center 21, Antisemite 5
Runoff: Liberal 55, SPD 45
1897 (MP deceased) Liberal 33, Center 26, SPD 25, NL 15
Runoff: Liberal 63, Center 37
1898 SPD 33, Liberal 32, Center 22, DRP 13
Runoff: Liberal 59, SPD 41
1901 (MP deceased) SPD 34, Liberal 23, Center 21, NL 19
Runoff: Liberal 57, SPD 43
1903 SPD 34, NL 24, Center 23, Liberal 19
Runoff: NL 55, SPD 45
1907 SPD 32, NL 27, Center 22, Liberal 19
Runoff: SPD 52, NL 48
1912 SPD 36, NL 25, Liberal 21, i 17
Runoff: NL 56, SPD 44

"Antisemite": I'm not breaking these different German Social, German Reform Party, Christian Social etc candidates down by party. They were often lumped under this label at the time. And they hardly ever ran against each other. I will be separately identifying the National Social Party apart because it's program was basically the Antisemites' minus Antisemitism... but its leading people were much closer to the Liberals, and ended up in the DDP after 1918. (And the FDP's Stiftung is named after one of them.)
Obviously, the second Liberal in 1893 was supported by the National Liberals, as was the DRP candidate in 1898. Obviously, the independent in 1912 was supported by the Center Party. Less obvious is that the 1907 SPD runoff triumph came to be thanks to Center Party support, while the Liberals supported the National Liberals. (It's my impression, from looking at results east of the Elbe and in Hesse, that the Liberals were by far the least effective in giving orders to their voters for the runoff, btw.)

Wiesbaden 3
99k inhabitants in 1890, 113k in 1910
56% agricultural and 28% industrial/artisanal in 1895, 45 and 35 in 1907
62% catholic, 37% protestant in 1890
1890 Center 57, NL 38
1893 Center 53, Center (2) 44
1898 Center 60, NL 35
1902 (MP deceased) Center 57, NL 20, Agrarian 19
1903 Center 58, NL 19, Agrarian 17, SPD 5
1907 Center 55, DRP 41
1912 Center 58, NL 31, SPD 11

The 1893 Center split, also to be observed elsewhere, occurred over an armament measure to be voted on by the new Reichstag which was opposed by the party but not by many of the rank and file. Obviously, the renegade candidate then was endorsed by the National Liberals.
This constituency is entirely in Rhineland-Pfalz today, btw.

Wiesbaden 4
101k inhabitants 1890, 110k 1910
51% agrarian, 32% industrial/artisanal in 1895, 49% and 34% in 1907
57% protestant, 42% catholic in 1890

1890 Liberal 68, NL 28
1893 NL 39, Center 33, Liberal 11, Antisemite 9, SPD 8
Runoff: NL 55, Center 45
1898 Center 42, NL 33, SPD 13, Liberal 12
Runoff: Center 51, NL 49
1903 NL 44, Center 39, SPD 11, Liberal 7
Runoff: NL 58, Center 42
1907 NL 45, Center 42, SPD 7, Antisemite 6
Runoff: NL 55, Center 45
1912 Conservative 46, NL 33, SPD 16, Liberal 5
Runoff: NL 52, Conservative 48

Lol at the Liberal coalition here in 1890 (and perhaps before) and its spectacular end when they lost the Catholic priesthood's support. Also, the "Conservative" candidate in 1912 - in an area where that party had no tradition at all - was really a Center Party pawn.

Wiesbaden 5
94k inhabitants in 1890, 110k in 1910
64% agricultural in 1895, 54% in 1907
73% protestant, 25% catholic in 1890

1890 Liberal 57, DRP 42
1893 NL 61, Liberal 31, Antisemite 7
1898 NL 51, Center 24, Antisemite 14, SPD 6, Liberal 4 (I've been cutting off at 4.5 so far, but it felt worthwhile to point out that there was one)
1903 NL 28, Antisemite 26, Center 24, Agrarian 9, SPD 8, Liberal 5
Runoff: Antisemite 56, NL 44
1907 Antisemite 52, NL 43, SPD 5
1912 Antisemite 47, NL 26, Liberal 19, SPD 9
Runoff: Antisemite 51, NL 49

Obviously, somebody had Center Party support... No idea what's up with 1890. Might go back to check that... they do have comment on many of these elections.

Wiesbaden 6 (ie, city of Frankfurt. In the 1877 boundaries. And it's handful of former dependent villages. Ie, not the whole territory of the city of Frankfurt then or now, which extends into Wiesbaden 1 and Kassel 8. And now into Darmstadt 2 as well.)

195k inhabitants in 1890, 341k in 1910
51% trades etc, 45% industrial/artisanal in 1895, 50% and 48% in 1907
61% protestant, 29% catholic in 1890 (note: jews )

1890 SPD 42, NL 24, Democrat 21, Liberals 8, Center 5
Runoff: SPD 63, NL 37
1893 SPD 44, NL 24, Democrat 23, Center 5, Antisemite 5
Runoff: SPD 63, NL 37
1898 SPD 51, Liberal 31, National Social 8, Center 6
1903 SPD 49, Liberal 19, National Social 12, Antisemite 11, Center 9
Runoff: SPD 52, Liberal 48
1907 SPD 47, Democrat 29, NL 9, i 8, Center 7
Runoff: Democrat 52, SPD 48
1912 SPD 48, Liberal 42, Center 8
Runoff: SPD 53, Liberal 47

By 1912, all the Liberals - including the Democrats - had finally joined into one party. Notice Democrat runoff support for the SPD in 1890 and 1893.

Kassel in next post.

[minionofmidas]

Kassel 1 (notice the enclave near Schaumburg-Lippe)
102k inhabitants in 1890, 110k in 1910
57% agricultural in 1895, 56% in 1907
95% protestant in 1890

1890 NL 38, Antisemite 26, SPD 21, Liberal 15
Runoff: Antisemite 65, NL 35
1893 DRP 43, Antisemite 27, SPD 19, Liberal 7
Runoff: Antisemite 56, DRP 44
1893 (MP elected in two constituencies) Antisemite 41, Conservative 29, NL 17, SPD 14
Runoff: Antisemite 64, Conservative 36
1895 (election annulled) Antisemite 54, SPD 25, NL 14, Liberal 5
1898 Antisemite 64, SPD 29
1900 (MP resigned) Conservative 31, Antisemite 28, SPD 19, NL 17
Runoff: Antisemite 59, Conservative 41
1903 Antisemite 48, SPD 26, NL 16, Liberal 6
Runoff: Antisemite 70, SPD 30
1906 (MP deceased) Antisemite 44, SPD 28, Center(!) 13, NL 8, Liberal 7
Runoff: Antisemite 67, SPD 33
1907 Antisemite 47, SPD 25, Liberal 13, Antisemite (2) 11
Runoff: Antisemite 74, SPD 26
1912 Antisemite 39, SPD 31, NL 30
Runoff: Antisemite 61, SPD 39

Well well well... an ever shifting coalition. Everybody here voted for the proto-Nazis at some point. 1907 victor was German Social, other antisemite was German Reform. Thing is, previous incumbent was German Reform as well.

Kassel 2 (includes city)
151k inhabitants in 1890, 231k in 1910
43% industrial/artisanal and 33% trades etc in 1895, 49% and still 33% in 1907
92% protestant, 5% catholic in 1890

1890 SPD 45, Conservative 29, Antisemite 15, Liberal 11
Runoff: Conservative 53, SPD 47
1891 (MP appointed to Prussian Government) SPD 41, NL 24, Antisemite 22, Conservative 7, Hessian Justice 7
Runoff: NL 54, SPD 46
1893 SPD 41, Conservative 22, NL 21, Hessian Justice 9, Liberal 7
Runoff: Conservatve 52, SPD 48
1898 SPD 44, NL 27, Antisemite 22, Hessian Justice 5
Runoff: NL 52, SPD 48
1903 SPD 47, Antisemite 25, NL 25
Runoff: Antisemite 51, SPD 49
1907 SPD 43, Antisemite 30, NL 24
Runoff: Antisemite 54, SPD 46
1912 SPD 49, NL 30, Antisemite 21
Runoff: SPD 51, NL 49

The Hessian Justice Party was an epic fail attempt at copying the Welfish Party's success. Appointments to Government (and promotions within the bureaucracy) triggered by-elections. The people thus appointed/promoted were free to stand again, but as there wasn't really any point for Government members in being a member of parliament, they usually didn't.
Oh and, wow. Just wow. At the SPD's failure to win anybody over to their side in runoffs here.

Kassel 3
80k in 1890, 85k in 1910.
67% agricultural in both 1895 and 1907
93% protestant in 1890

1890 Antisemite 61, i 29, Conservative 9
1893 Antisemite 62, Conservative 23, Hessian Justice 7
1898 Antisemite 76, Hessian Justice 13, SPD 8
1903 Antisemite 68, Conservative 22, SPD 7
1907 Antisemite 63, Liberal 27, SPD 6
1912 Antisemite 47, German Peasants' Federation 27, Liberal 12, Hessian and Thuringian Peasants' Party 8, SPD 6
Runoff: Peasants' Fed 52, Antisemite 48

This was their leader's seat (he retired in 1912). The i in 1890 was a son of the last Kurfürst. The platform he stood on was broadly National Liberal / moderately Liberal, but obviously he won a lot of support from local Conservatives as well.

Kassel 4 (notice the enclave in Thuringia)
105k inhabitants in 1890, 123k in 1910
44% industry etc, 42% agriculture in 1895, 49 and 37 in 1907
96% protestant in 1890

1890 Liberal 42, DRP 38, SPD 20
Runoff: Liberal 58, DRP 42
1893 DRP 29, Antisemite 26, SPD 26, Liberal 19
Runoff: Antisemite 59, DRP 41
1895 (MP jailed for bigamy and perjury. He came out of prison a Socialist, btw, and in the immediate postwar period was leader of the SPD in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Strelitz )  SPD 35, Antisemite 24, Liberal 22, DRP 19
Runoff: Antisemite 59, SPD 41
1898 SPD 37, DRP 24, Liberal 22, Antisemite 17
Runoff: DRP 59, SPD 41
1903 SPD 36, Liberal 25, DRP 21, Antisemite 18
Runoff: Liberal 60, SPD 40
1904 (MP jailed for fraud. They weren't happy in their choice of MP's here...) SPD 32, Antisemite 25, Liberal 23, DRP 20
Runoff: Antisemite 57, SPD 43
1907 Antisemite 41, SPD 34, Liberal 25
Runoff: Antisemite 61, SPD 39
1912 SPD 48, Antisemite 28, Liberal 25
Runoff: SPD 54, Antisemite 46

Kassel 5
93k inhabitants in 1890, 105k in 1910
64% agriculture in 1895, 62% in 1907
84% protestant, 13% catholic in 1890

1890 Antisemite 65, DRP 25, Center 7
1893 Antisemite 49, Conservative 20, Center 12, Liberal 12, NL 6
Runoff: Antisemite 69, Conservative 31
1898 Antisemite 26, Conservative 21, Center 17(!), National Social 17, Hessian Justice 14, SPD 5
Runoff: Antisemite 53, Conservative 47
1903 Conservative 34, National Social 25, Antisemite 17, Center 13, SPD 10
Runoff: National Social 53, Conservative 47
1907 Antisemite 49, Liberal 24, Center 13, SPD 8, NL 6
Runoff: Antisemite 56, Liberal 44
1912 Democrat 32, Antisemite 31, DRP 18, Antisemite (2) 14, SPD 6
Runoff: Antisemite 58, Democrat 42

I note that the map at that site lists the 1903 winner as "other liberal". 1912 is the Demokratische Vereinigung - the splinter group of Democrats' who refused the 1907 electoral alliance with the center-right parties  and then the 1909 merger with the Liberals (it included some prominent names; Rudolf Breitscheid, Carl von Ossietzky). How and why Marburg liberals chose one of its members as their candidate, I didn't read up. After the Party didn't win a single seat in 1912, Breitscheid joined the SPD.) Different antisemite parties that year.

Kassel 6
85k inhabitants in 1890, 94k in 1910
65% agriculatural in 1895, 58% in 1907
78% protestant, 19% catholic in 1890

1890 Conservative 46, Center 30, Conservative (2) 23
Runoff: Conservative 74, Center 26 (turnout way up)
1893 Antisemite 34, Conservative 31, Center 20, NL 11
Runoff: Antisemite 62, Conservative 38
1898 Antisemite 51, Center 24, NL 14, SPD 9
1903 Antisemite 43, Center 25, Conservative 22, SPD 10
Runoff: Antisemite 67, Center 33
1907 Antisemite 46, Center 21, Conservative 21, SPD 11
Runoff: Antisemite 75, Center 25
1912 Antisemite 28, SPD 20, Center 19, Liberal 18, Hessian Peasants' Federation 15
Runoff: Antisemite 73, SPD 27

Confusion must have reined in 1890, with no nominal Liberals and no candidates entirely without Liberal support (including NL here). High Center support generally is odd. Of course the Catholic population here wasn't scattered - the southern (Hünfeld) bit is solidly Catholic - but that doesn't really explain it. Maybe a longstanding pact with some local libs.

Kassel 7
99k inhabitants in 1890, 116k in 1910
66% agricultural in 1895, 58% in 1907
66% Catholic, 32% protestant in 1890

1890 Center 68, Conservative 28
1893 Center 66, Center (2) 29, SPD 5
1898 Center 88, scattered opposition
1903 Center 79, Antisemite16
1907 Center 65, DRP 31
1912 Center 82, SPD 9, NL 5

1893 - see also, Wiesbaden 3. At least turnout was way down in 1898, in what was basically an uncontested election.

Kassel 8
135k inhabitants in 1890, 200k inhabitants in 1910
41% industrial/artisanal, 36% agricultural in 1895. 48 and 27 by 1907.
73% protestant, 24% catholic in 1890.

1890 SPD 39, Conservative 35, Liberal 27
Runoff: Conservative 51, SPD 49
1893 SPD 42, Conservative 31, Liberal 10, Antisemite 9, Center 9
Runoff: Conservative 51, SPD 49
1898 SPD 55, Conservative 22, Liberal 17, Antisemite 6
1903 SPD 48, NL 30, Center 15, Liberal 6
Runoff: NL 52, SPD 48
1907 SPD 50, NL 38, Liberal 12
Runoff: SPD 51, NL 49
1912 SPD 52, NL 29, Center 10, Conservative 9

Can't help but wonder about that 1898 result... SPD / Center pact?

[minionofmidas]

And... Darmstadt.

Darmstadt 1
104k inhabitants in 1890, 126k in 1910
54% agricultural, 28% industrial/artisanal in 1895, 44 and 36 by 1907
95% protestant in 1890

1890 Liberal 36, Antisemite 28, NL 26, SPD 11
Runoff: Liberal 51, Antisemite 49
1890 (MP elected in two constituencies) Antisemite 45, Liberal 30, NL 13, SPD 9
Runoff: Antisemite 53, Liberal 47
1893 Antisemite 38, NL 29, SPD 19, Liberal 13
Runoff: Antisemite 54, NL 46
1896 (election annulled) Antisemite 35, SPD 28, NL 20, Liberal 18
Runoff: Antisemite 65, SPD 35 (turnout way up)
1898 Antisemite 35, SPD 33, NL 31
Runoff: Antisemite 62, SPD 38
1903 SPD 36, NL 32, Antisemite 31
Runoff: NL 57, SPD 43
1907 Antisemite 39, NL 33, SPD 28
Runoff: Antisemite 52, NL 48
1911 (MP deceased) SPD 34, Antisemite 34, Liberal 22, NL 11
Runoff: Antisemite 52, SPD 48
1912 Antisemite 40, SPD 32, Liberal 28
Runoff: Antisemite 52, SPD 48

1890 - the other seat is Darmstadt 2. Where the election was just as close, but the enemy was taken more seriously... not that it matters. This was the last Liberal win in either.
Trying to squeeze three parties (or four if you will) into a two-party system in the later years here.

Darmstadt 2
83k inhabitants in 1890, 102k in 1910
56% agricultural and 27% industrial etc in 1895, 42 and 33 by 1907
79% protestant, 17% catholic in 1890

1890 NL 43, Liberal 36, SPD 13, Center 8
Runoff: Liberal 51, NL 49
1893 NL 38, Antisemite 24, Liberal 20, SPD 17
Runoff: NL 58, Antisemite 42
1898 NL 35, SPD 31, Antisemite 14, National Social 10, Center 10
Runoff: NL 61, SPD 39
1903 NL 49, SPD 39, Center 11
Runoff: NL 63, SPD 37
1907 NL 41, SPD 35, Antisemite 16, Liberal 7
Runoff: NL 57, SPD 43
1910 (MP deceased) SPD 47, Agrarians 31, NL 22
Runoff: SPD 55, Agrarians 45
1912 SPD 44, NL 35, Liberal 12, Center 10
Runoff: NL 52, SPD 48

Darmstadt 3
79k inhabitants in 1890, 82k in 1910
72% agricultural in 1895, 65% in 1907
94% protestant in 1890

1890 Antisemite 42, Liberal 28, NL 27
Runoff: Antisemite 71, Liberal 29
1893 Antisemite 36, NL 34, Liberal 16, SPD 6, Conservative 5
Runoff: Antisemite 52, NL 48
1893 (MP elected in two constituencies) Antisemite 46, NL 37, Liberal 15
Runoff: Antisemite 54, NL 46
1898 Antisemite 38, Agrarians 30, Liberal 17, SPD 11
Runoff: Antisemite 57, Agrarians 43
1903 NL 44, Antisemite 43, SPD 9
Runoff: NL 54, Antisemite 46 (turnout way up - turnout increases are typical in this constituency, though)
1907 Antisemite 43, NL 41, Liberal 9, SPD 8
Runoff: Antisemite 53, NL 47
1912 Antisemite 41, NL 21, SPD 20, Liberal 18
Runoff: NL 54, Antisemite 46 (turnout way up)

Darmstadt 4 (includes Darmstadt)
129k inhabitants 1890, 196k in 1910
38% industrial etc, 34% trades etc in 1895, 47 and 35 by 1907
88% protestant, 10% catholic in 1890

1890 NL 49, SPD 32, Liberal 19
Runoff: NL 58, SPD 42
1893 NL 49, SPD 31, Antisemite 17
Runoff: NL 63, SPD 37
1898 SPD 45, NL 33, Antisemite 22
Runoff: SPD 52, NL 48 (turnout way up)
1903 SPD 51, NL 31, Liberal 7, Agrarian 7
1906 (MP resigned) SPD 46, NL 35, National Social 19
Runoff: SPD 51, NL 49
1907 SPD 45, NL 30, National Social 25
Runoff: NL 53, SPD 47
1912 SPD 50, NL 30, Liberal 20
Runoff: SPD 56, NL 44

Antisemites clean took over the Liberal organisation here for a while in the 90s!

Darmstadt 5 (includes Offenbach)
146k inhabitants in 1890, 222k in 1910
53% industrial etc in 1895, 63% in 1907
56% protestant, 41% catholic in 1890

1890 SPD 45, NL 37, Center 18
Runoff: SPD 54, NL 46
1893 SPD 46, NL 28, Center 15, Antisemite 11
Runoff: SPD 52, NL 48
1898 SPD 55, Center 22, NL 14, Antisemite 9
1903 SPD 48, NL 34, Center 18
Runoff: NL 52, SPD 48
1907 SPD 49, i 33, Center 18
Runoff SPD 55, i 45
1912 SPD 55, NL 18, Center 16, Liberal 7

Yah, got themselves a no-party compromise bourgeois candidate in 1907.

Darmstadt 6
105k inhabitants in 1890, 118k in 1910
53% agricultural, 35% industrial/artisanal in 1895 - 44% industrial, 42% agriculture by 1907
74% protestant, 25% catholic in 1890

1890 NL 47, Liberal 38, SPD 9, Center 6
Runoff: NL 51, Liberal 49
1893 NL 41, Antisemite 33, Liberal 14, SPD 11
Runoff: Antisemite 52, NL 48
1898 NL 44, SPD 27, Antisemite 17, Democrat 12
Runoff: NL 57, SPD 43
1903 NL 45, SPD 35, Center 20
Runoff: NL 61, SPD 39
1907 NL 41, Wirtschaftliche Vereinigung 32, SPD 27
Runoff: NL 52, WVg 48
1912 SPD 40, Antisemite 22, NL 21, Liberal 17
Runoff: SPD 56, Antisemite 44

Yeah, you make out heads and tails on that.

Darmstadt 7
109k inhabitants 1890, 146 in 1910
43% agri, 40% industrial in 1895. By 1907, 47% ind, 31% agr
51% protestant, 45% catholic in 1890

1890 NL 57, Center 22, Liberal 11, SPD 10
1893 NL 59, Center 22, SPD 13, Liberal 6
1898 NL 58, Center 24, SPD 15
1903 NL 48, Center 25, SPD 17, Liberal 9
Runoff: NL 67, Center 33
1907 NL 49, Center 27, SPD 17, Liberal 8
Runoff: NL 59, Center 41
1912 NL 40, SPD 24, Center 22, Liberal 14
Runoff: NL 67, SPD 33

Darmstadt 8 (entirely in Rhineland-Pfalz now)
98k inhabitants in 1890, 105k in 1910
61% agricultural in 1895, 54% in 1907
56% protestant, 39% catholic in 1890

1890 Liberal 59, NL 35, SPD 6
1893 Liberal 31, NL 28, Center 27, SPD 11
Runoff: Liberal 61, NL 39
1893 (MP elected in two constituencies) Liberal 77, Antisemite 17, Antisemite (2) 5
1898 Liberal 53, NL 31, SPD 8, Antisemite 8
1903 Center 34, Liberal 29, NL 28, SPD 8
Runoff: Liberal 54, Center 46
1907 Agrarian 31, Liberal 30, Center 17, Center (2) 13, SPD 9
Runoff: Agrarian 57, Liberal 43
1909 (MP deceased) Liberal 37, Center 30, NL 26, SPD 7
Runoff: Center 52, Liberal 48
1912 NL 48, Liberal 42, SPD 10
Runoff: NL 50, Liberal 50 (won by two votes!)

Obviously a Liberal-Center pact in 1890 and again in 1898. Joke turnout in the 1893 by-election. Not sure what the story is for 1907 with the two Center candidates, tho' the agrarian is basically NL. 1912 is also odd - Center split on which worldy protestant to support?

Darmstadt 9 (includes Mainz)
141k inhabitants in 1890, 184k in 1910
40% trades etc either year, industrial up from 37 to 43
64% catholic, 33% protestant in 1890

1890 SPD 40, Center 32, NL 28
Runoff: SPD 51, Center 49
1893 SPD 41, NL 24, Center 24, Democrat 9
Runoff: SPD 57, NL 43
1896 (resigned) SPD 40, Center 39, NL 17, Antisemite 5
Runoff: Center 50, SPD 50
1898 SPD 45, Center 33, Liberal 21
Runoff: Center 52, SPD 48
1903 SPD 49, Center 31, NL 18
Runoff: SPD 55, Center 45
1907 SPD 45, Center 29, NL 26
Runoff: SPD 52, Center 48
1912 SPD 50, Center 28, NL 21

Just over 50 on the first round in 1912.

And that's that. Obviously there's still Waldeck, and Wetzlar which was an enclave of the Rhine Province. Less obvious is why Biedenkopf was in a Westphalian constituency. Anyways I didn't take these down.

[minionofmidas]

Btw: I think the map is quite ok. Constituencies are situated correctly in relation to each other

Hardly. Anywhere from the beige bit

 to Igstadt



is in Wiesbaden 2. (Oh, and the three areas in the far south on this are in Darmstadt 9.) Of course the boundaries of the Frankfurt constituency are hideously complex with several enclaves to the northward - might have been wiser to do what he did at some other cities, give up on exact mapping and just draw a circle.

[minionofmidas]

Is there any way to get more detailed results within a "Gemeinde"?

Search the Hessisches Landesarchiv.

Frankfurt Stadtteil results for *some* of these elections can be found in the Francfurtiana room on the top floor of the StUB, too.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt constituency in green and orange (plus some uninhabited forestland in the Hohemark, actually). Teal is with Hanau, yellow, very light blue, and grey (an error in this map, as the text it came with makes clear. Accidental holdover from the pre-67 map. Should be yellow) are all in Wiesbaden 1. (Another error is with the airport terrain. That should be yet another color. Nevermind that.)