2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

A little under six hours until the beginning of the first real Superwahljahr (super election year) since 1994: A federal election, an European election, five state elections, eight local elections and the election of a president by the Federal Assembly.

w00t!

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPIEGEL now reports that Thuringian minister-president Dieter Althaus could be charged with  involuntary manslaughter in Austria because of the woman that was killed in his skiing accident last week. The woman's family is also planning to sue him for damages. The Thuringian CDU's position has always been that Althaus will continue to be the party's top candidate for the August 30 election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's even more stunning:



With only a few days until the election, only 49% of SPD voters know that Schäfer-Gümbel is the frontrunner of the SPD ...

SPD voters still think that Ypsilanti is the top candidate?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Bundespräsident election will take place this Saturday, in which incumbent Horst Köhler (CDU) will be taking on Gesine Schwan (SPD), and some socialist is running, too.

This would be former TV actor Peter Sodann, who was nominated by The Left after they failed to find somebody else (seriously!). Also running is Nazi musician Frank Rennicke who was nominated by NPD and DVU.

There are up to three ballots. While you'll need an absolute majority (50%+1) during the first two ballots, a mere plurality (= most votes) is sufficient during the third ballot. In 2004, Horst Köhler defeated Gesine Schwan (yeah, the same candidates all over again) on the first ballot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AFV 1 0,1%

I know the other parties, but what is AFV?

Good question, since I don't know it either. I can only assume that it stands for fraktionslose (independent/non-party) members. Then again, there should be two of them.

EDIT: Alright, I checked it. The numbers given above should be correct, except that there are two independent members (list under "AFV"? there).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good question, since I don't know it either. I can only assume that it stands for fraktionslose (independent/non-party) members. Then again, there should be two of them.

EDIT: Alright, I checked it. The numbers given above should be correct, except that there are two independent members (list under "AFV"? there).

Thank you. With this information I've found out what AFV stands for. It is the new party (movement?) of Bundestag member Henry Nitzsche (ex-CDU), the "Wählervereinigung Arbeit, Familie Vaterland": http://www.arbeit-familie-vaterland.de/

Doesn't even have an article in the German Wikipedia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lol.

DoubleLOL.

"Saxon bravery stops Muslim flood". A statement of particular oddity considering that only the tiniest fraction of the Saxon population is actually Muslim (or immigrants for that matter). But then again, opposition to immigrants doesn't necessarily require the existence of immigrants.

After having taken a look at his webste, I'm not sure whether Nitzsche will vote for Köhler (despite Nitzsche's declaration of support) or Rennicke. However, if Rennicke gets more than four votes tomorrow we'll know where it possibly came from.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First ballot has started...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Horst Köhler was re-elected on the first ballot.


Results:

Horst Köhler - 613
Gesine Schwan - 503
Peter Sodann - 91
Frank Rennicke - 4
Abstentions - 10
Invalid votes - 2
Absent electors - 1

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another fact from the ARD poll:

Should the German military stay in Afghanistan ?

27% Yes
69% No

This is the highest support for withdrawal that has been measured so far.

In large parts because several German soldiers were killed only a dew days ago.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.


Btw, it's worth to note that this coalition collapses for largely superficial reasons. First of all, Carstensen and SPD leader Ralf Stegner are said to despise each other on a personal level. There has been trouble between the two in past. In fact, Stegner once was a minister under Carstensen until he quit because they didn't go along with each other anymore. And second, the Schleswig-Holsteinian CDU seems to love the idea of holding the next state election on the same as the Bundestag election, so that they can profit from Merkel's coattails.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And it seems we'll get another state election this year: the Grand coalition in Schleswig-Holstein just broke down. CDU wants to hold early election on September 27, the same day of the Bundestag election (and therefore taking advantage of Angela Merkel's popularity).

So, we'll have state elections in Saarland, Saxony, and Thuringia (all August 30) as well as Brandenburg and perhaps Schleswig-Holstein (September 27).

"Perhaps" is good ...

According to the rules, the state parliament needs to dissolve by a 2/3 majority.

So the SPD would need to vote to dissolve parliament too, but the question is if they will (mainly to avoid getting killed by the popular Merkel coattails in the General Election like you said). They could vote "No" for strategic reasons and to hold the state elections next year to see if the climate for them is getting better after September ...

Anyway, the last Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest-dimap for NDR (May 15):

CDU: 37% (-3 compared with 2005 state elections)
SPD: 27% (-12)
FDP: 15% (+8)
Greens: 11% (+5)
Left: 4% (+3)
SSW: 3% (-1)
Others: 3% (nc)

Yeah, the SPD says that it will vote "no" on dissolving the state parliament and that they want to continue the coalition for the remainder of the regular legislative period. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the CDU can back down from its decision to terminate the Grand coalition.

This leaves minister-president Carstensen (CDU) with two options (and maybe he'll do both): Firing the SPD ministers and continue as a CDU minority government and/or deliberately losing a vote of confidence in the state parliament (which would also trigger an early election).

But it probably makes some sense for the SPD to vote against dissolving the state parliament: a) they could claim that it wasn't really their fault that the coalition broke apart and b) early elections are maybe delayed a little longer.

It does not make sense for the SPD to delay the elections just a little longer. If they can't hope against hope for better polling sometime in 2010, the federal election date is their best option.

They're just playing hard to get because of the way the CDU dragged this on and on and then suddenly acted on its own without provocation, pretending it's the SPD's fault. They'll come around.

(Or alternatively, maybe they could try Red-Green-SSW again. Okay, so I too doubt they have the balls.)

Well, I once heard the argument that Carstensen could be "afraid" that there will be a CDU/FDP coalition in place on the federal level at time of the next state election in May 2010, and that this state could be the first where voters punish him and his CDU for unpopular decisions the new federal government would have made.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens and SSW have ruled out to back the installment of a Prime Minister Stegner.

BTW, how common is it in Germany that the party who calls for early elections is punished at the polls ? At least in Austria its fairly common. Look at the ÖVP last year. It didn't apply to Schröder in 2005 though or only slightly, because the CDU was ahead by 15-20 and the SPD "only" lost by 1.

Depends on the circumstances, I guess. On the federal level, the SPD won its best result ever (and it still is to this date) after the early elections of 1972. The question is whether an early election is seen as a sign of desperation and/or weakness (and whether a government is able to defy such impression). Was a government driven to hold an early election or wanted the government to hold an early election (because of good polls at the time, for example)?

Anyway, it seems that the state parliament is going to vote tomorrow on dissolving itself. SPD still asserts that they will vote against the motion and that Carstensen should hand in his resignation if he doesn't want to carry on with his job anymore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, does anyone know what the deadline for dissolvement of parliament would have to be to hold state elections together with the federal elections ?

State constitution says that an early election must be held within 70 days after dissolving the state parliament. Other deadlines can be found in Schleswig-Holstein's electoral law. In the case of an early election, filing deadline for political parties is 48 days before the election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Motion to dissolve state parliament has failed because of the SPD's veto. Vote of confidence will probably take place on Thursday.

So, who's giving a no-confidence vote to Carstensen ?

CDU and FDP ? Also the Greens ?

Certainly the CDU, because that's the whole purpose of the vote... and maybe everybody else too. CDU and SPD have been alienated themselves enough the last few days (including the SPD's calls for Carstensen's resignation) that it would be highly ironic if the SPD is the only party voting "in favour" of Carstensen. I would assume that all parties are going to unanimously vote "no".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Vote of confidence today. CDU abstained, SPD, FDP, Greens and SSW voted "no". There was only a single "yes" vote: state parliament president Martin Kayenburg (CDU).

Early elections on September 27.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD, FDP, Greens, Left Party, NPD and the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) will be on the ballot in all 16 German states this year. As always, the CDU is on the ballot in all states except Bavaria, the CSU in Bavaria only. The Pirate Party is running in all states except Saxony.

Political parties which are running in at least half the states of Germany are: the far-right DVU, the Republicans, and the ödp (sort of a conservative version of the Green Party). All remaining parties are on the ballot in less than eight states.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've never taken a German class in my life, but does that say, "My ass in the pants in the Bundestag"? And, not knowing one way or another, I have to agree with The Mikado: definitely male.

It's a figure of speech. "Keinen Arsch in der Hose haben" (having no ass in the pants) means something like being a coward, having no balls, being a pussy etc.


Anyway, here's Hans-Christian Ströbele's ad. As always he uses a costum-made "non-partisan" poster designed by an artist he knows. This time it contains a picture of Karl Marx.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The age difference between the models on the SPD and CDU posters is mildly amusing.

That's because the CDU doesn't use models but their cabinet members.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ughhh ! The Nazis strike again:

Extremist NPD party tells black politician, 'go home!'

Germany's far-right NPD party has called for a black Christian Democrat (CDU) politician to go home and urged its members in the eastern state of Thuringia to deliver this message to him personally.



Schall is described as integration specialist for Chancellor Merkel's CDU

Zeca Schall, who is under police protection following the NPD statements reacted defiantly to the threats which were posted on the group's website on Tuesday, saying he considered himself to be a Thuringian.

According to the Christian Democrat's party spokesman for the state, Heiko Senebald, Schall said he would not be cowed by extremist threats and that he would continue to work on the regional election campaign.

The 45-year-old German currently appears in a local poster campaign ahead of state elections on Aug. 30. The NPD referred to Schall as a "ratings-n" and said of Schall, who has been in Germany since 1988, that as he was "no longer needed" he should "directly head home to Angola."

CDU members in the eastern state immediately rallied behind Schall, calling the right-wing abuse, "inhuman" and a "violation of human dignity." The party on Wednesday submitted a request for criminal charges to be pressed, saying the NPD's statements were an incitement to racial hatred.

Chair of politics and culture at Berlin's Free University Hajo Funke praised the CDU's direct and rapid response to the verbal abuse but said Thuringia is not doing enough to prevent the spread of right wing ideas.

"They are a latecomer in preventing right wing extremism," he said. "They are one of the least active states in eastern Germany and in Germany as a whole, so it's good that they are finally starting to do something."

According to Senebald, the CDU and Thuringia do enough to combat racism. Calling Thuringia an open and welcoming state, Senebald said the NPD was barely represented in the state and referred to programs aimed at preventing right-wing extremism. These range from the reintegration of former extremists into society as well as helplines for people wishing to leave the groups.

Germany's Office for the Protection of the Constitution said put membership of Thuringia's NPD party at just over 500 in 2008, around 80 less than in 2007. The agency also referred to the party's structure as weakened through political infighting.

The party's statements against Schall are likely to reignite debate over whether the NPD, which is described by Germany's BND domestic intelligence agency as racist, anti-Semitic and revisionist, should be banned. A ban would require a parliamentary majority. The last attempt to achieve a ban failed in 2003.

The NPD currently has around 7,000 members and holds seats in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4561154,00.html

I'm more interested in getting the members of the NPD to leave the country. And in contrast to them I'm not particularly choosy regarding their destination. The most important thing is that they're somewhere else. So, any suggestions?

[Middle-aged Europe]

A bona fide party called Die Partei (The Party) is campaigning with a satirical program to rebuild the Berlin Wall, turn eastern Germany into a nature reserve and populate it with the nation's pensioners.

Well, not anymore I guess. "The Party" failed to win ballot status in all German states.

According to a new Forsa poll, Schlämmer's party would actually receive 18% if it really stands in the federal elections ...

Not, it wouldn't. It could. The poll didn't asked if you want to vote for the "Horst Schlämmer Party", it asked if you could imagine to vote for the party. It was one of the "voter potential" polls. The CDU would probably get at least 50% in such a poll, because all FDP supporters, a majority of all swing voters and perhaps some of the more conservative SPD supporters would say that they could imagine to vote for the CDU. Doesn't mean that they would ever get such a result in an actual election.

And last but not least, since the poll asked about a non-existing joke party you can't really expect that someone responds in a realistic manner anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, Lyndon LaRouche's wife is running as a direct candidate in Berlin-Mitte. In 2005, she ran in Leipzig I and received 0.6% of the vote.

BüSo, the German arm of the "LaRouche movement", is on the ballot in seven German states this time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Not happening. (I am perfectly ready to believe that some people in the CDU are both intelligent and macchiavellian enough to think so. But it's still not happening.)

Yeah, not happening. Merkel would come under heavy fire from within her own party, economically conservative CDU voters would (continue to) defect to the FDP in droves and the FDP would never ever trust the CDU anymore.