Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Adlai Stevenson]

Both candidates are now apparently preparing for a run-off on 2nd December.  The race should be close given the result earlier this month and Chambliss reportedly has both John McCain and Sarah Palin coming into campaign for him, while Martin has solicited the aid of Obama.  Although Chambliss must be favoured, I think given the current political climate in Georgia (Obama didn't win the state as some hoped, but he still significantly narrowed Bush's 2004 margin and enfranchised many new black and young voters) Martin could have a chance.  If white turnout is down, and eh can succeed in getting blacks to the polls with Obama's help - he has a chance.  What do we think?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While white turnout may be down, black turnout will probably be down more.

[Smid]

While white turnout may be down, black turnout will probably be down more.

There were a lot of first time black voters supporting Obama, who may not come out to vote for Martin. I agree with Sibboleth - I think it's black turnout that will be down the most.

[Sam Spade]

While white turnout may be down, black turnout will probably be down more.

There were a lot of first time black voters supporting Obama, who may not come out to vote for Martin. I agree with Sibboleth - I think it's black turnout that will be down the most.

Ya, historically this is the correct answer at least.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Downard spike in black turnout coupled with fears of one party control my push Saxby over 55% close to 60

[Nutmeg]

While white turnout may be down, black turnout will probably be down more.

There were a lot of first time black voters supporting Obama, who may not come out to vote for Martin. I agree with Sibboleth - I think it's black turnout that will be down the most.

Yes.

Downard spike in black turnout coupled with fears of one party control my push Saxby over 55% close to 60

No.

[Eraserhead]

Downard spike in black turnout coupled with fears of one party control my push Saxby over 55% close to 60

60%? lol.

That said, he should win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Chambliss wins with around 56%.

[Bacon King]

Chambliss with 54%.

[Yamor]

Sorry for my ignorance, but why is there a run-off? What were the original results?

[Hash]

Sorry for my ignorance, but why is there a run-off? What were the original results?

No candidate broke 50%.

[Yamor]

Thanks. Is that the law in all states or only some? Just that it doesn't seem to happen more often...

[Hash]

Thanks. Is that the law in all states or only some? Just that it doesn't seem to happen more often...

IIRC only a few states have that law.

[Nutmeg]

Thanks. Is that the law in all states or only some? Just that it doesn't seem to happen more often...

IIRC only a few states have that law.

At this point, only Georgia.

[Bacon King]

My analysis here:

Martin will lose. Black turnout will be significantly lower than on election day and the high black turnout was the only reason he kept Chambliss under 50% in the first place. The only way Martin can get a high enough turnout in Atlanta (strongly connecting himself to Obama) is the exact same thing that would turn off the McCain-Martin voters which he would also still need. Basically the guy's just in a tough spot without any chance of victory.

[JSojourner]

The coward will win.  Unfortunately.

[Franzl]

Chambliss by at least 10...I'm afraid

[Kevin]

Chambliss wins around 54% of the vote. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Chambliss >52% but <55%  I will tend to go with the historical analisis that Black vote declines more than the White Vote in runoffs. I also believe that any reservations about Chambliss(pork barrel spending) will vanish among Republicans once he and the third party groups hit the air talking about the unchecked liberal domination of the Senate and thus all of Gov't if he loses.

[Lunar]

I'd give Chambliss 8:1 odds, the fundamentals favor him, but we'll have to see who has the better turnout operation.

[Brittain33]

The fact that Obama is avoiding the state, only sending staffers, and at least four Republican candidates of this election and next (McCain, Palin, Giuliani, and Romney) are heading to Georgia says everything we need to know about how they expect the race to turn out.

Maybe Palin and Romney will cross paths. That would be fun.

[SPQR]

Martin has the same chances of winning that Obama had of winning Montana.

[Lief 🗽]

Martin has the same chances of winning that Obama had of winning Montana.

Um... Obama only lost Montana by 12,000 votes.

[SPQR]

Martin has the same chances of winning that Obama had of winning Montana.

Um... Obama only lost Montana by 12,000 votes.

People only gave him a 15-20% chance of winning before November 5th,though.And I think this race will be closer than expected,although I am afraid Martin won't win.

[agcatter]

With Obama on the ballot Martin squeezed out every Democratic vote he possibly could have gotten - and still trailed by 3.

Should end up Chambliss with at least 54% and probably higher.  I don't expect Obama to campaign in Georgia - maybe will make a token trip to Atlanta but no barnstorming tour or anything.   He's not going to use his political capital on a race that Democrats can't win.