Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Meeker]

Early voting lines in some Metro Atlanta counties: http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories//2008/11/17/georgia_early_voting.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab

[Lief 🗽]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

[Meeker]

The Georgia SOS is unfortunately not doing an early voting profile this time around.

[Lunar]

The more I think about the race the less certain I am that Chambliss will win.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Of what's mentioned...

Cobb & Gwinnett Counties: probably a bad sign for Martin, but can be a good thing depending on who's voting
Dekalb County: good sign for Martin
low turnout in Clayton: quite a bad sign for Martin

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

[Ronnie]

Certainly, this race could become an upset if Obama campaigns hard for Martin from now until election day, but the likelihood of that is becoming dimmer by the day.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

[Sam Spade]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

[Meeker]

Politico:

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[Lunar]

Politico:

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Guess what type of radio stations that will air on

[Meeker]

Guess what type of radio stations that will air on

Country and Christian talk?

[Lunar]

Obama really doesn't want to associate himself with Martin, win or lose.  In many ways his relationship with Congressional Republicans is more important than Democrats in his first days of becoming president-elect and indeed perhaps throughout his entire first term.

But neglecting Martin's campaign's repeated calls for his presence would have been a slap on the face twenty times bigger than his vote on FISA to the left-wing blogosphere and would have represented his first battle with Senate Democrats, all of whom, I'm sure, were pressuring Obama to make a move.  Not only do they want to add one of their own to their ranks (especially because Martin is genuinely liberal) but because they don't particularly mind the concept of Obama alienating Senate Republicans and the president forced to deal exclusively with the Democrats -- not that this has happened yet, but this isn't a scenario that keeps Harry Reid up at night.  The more Senate Republicans are marginalized from discussion the more power Congressional Democrats have.

But that is all background noise.  The bottom line is that Obama doesn't want his opening moments to be engulfed in partisan campaigning but his hand has been forced.   Also, I'm sure a lot of Obama advisers don't like Chambliss.

[Brittain33]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

They're talking 1500 people in each of the big metro counties on the first day. That is not enough to tell us anything about relative turnout.

[??????????]

Without runoff Chambliss would have won anyways, and pretty much w/out real question. I don't see why that would change at this point.

[Brittain33]

Without runoff Chambliss would have won anyways, and pretty much w/out real question. I don't see why that would change at this point.

Special elections introduce a level of unpredictability that doesn't apply to regular elections. When turnout drops that much, anything can happen. LA-6 and MS-1 would probably have gone Republican as open seats in November. Otherwise this race would be solid for Chambliss, and he still has to be considered a favorite.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

[Sam Spade]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

L is Libertarian, not Latino.  The census population of Gwinnett that is Latino is 17%.  I doubt actual voters comprise much more than half that, vis-a-vis the other races.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

L is Libertarian, not Latino.  The census population of Gwinnett that is Latino is 17%.  I doubt actual voters comprise much more than half that, vis-a-vis the other races.

I was wondering the "hispanic" number was so small in your stat there. Doh, my bad.

[Lunar]

African-Americans are 24% of the run-off electorate thus far

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/11/19/africanamerican_voting_down_in.html

After two days of early voting for the Dec. 2 runoffs in Georgia, African-American turnout is down significantly from the heady days leading up to the election of Barack Obama as president.

According to Secretary of State Karen Handel, black voters have cast 8,113 of 33,555 ballots, or 24 percent.

In the 45-day period of early voting prior to the general election, African-Americans cast 34.5 percent of advanced ballots. Maintaining enthusiasm in the U.S. Senate runoff has been viewed as the chief hurdle for Democrat Jim Martin, who faces Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Hence today’s rally headlining former President Bill Clinton, on the campus of Clark Atlanta University.

[Sam Spade]

African-Americans are 24% of the run-off electorate thus far

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/11/19/africanamerican_voting_down_in.html

After two days of early voting for the Dec. 2 runoffs in Georgia, African-American turnout is down significantly from the heady days leading up to the election of Barack Obama as president.

According to Secretary of State Karen Handel, black voters have cast 8,113 of 33,555 ballots, or 24 percent.

In the 45-day period of early voting prior to the general election, African-Americans cast 34.5 percent of advanced ballots. Maintaining enthusiasm in the U.S. Senate runoff has been viewed as the chief hurdle for Democrat Jim Martin, who faces Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Hence today’s rally headlining former President Bill Clinton, on the campus of Clark Atlanta University.

24.18% won't come anywhere near cutting it for Martin, obviously.  How long is the early voting period, anyways.

[Sam Spade]

As of yesterday, black turnout is 22.47%, white turnout is 74.87% and other turnout is 2.66% in early voting with 101,482 votes cast.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08_runoff.htm

[Meeker]

Oops: http://www.ajc.com/services/content/printedition/2008/11/22/ballots.html

[Flying Dog]

Martin is close to done, then.

[Meeker]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/An_Obama_robocall_in_Georgia.html?showall