Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Sam Spade]

While white turnout may be down, black turnout will probably be down more.

There were a lot of first time black voters supporting Obama, who may not come out to vote for Martin. I agree with Sibboleth - I think it's black turnout that will be down the most.

Ya, historically this is the correct answer at least.

[Sam Spade]

Guess who showed up at today's McCain rally for Chambliss...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1108/McCain_Go_into_battle_one_more_time_for_Chambliss.html

[Sam Spade]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

[Sam Spade]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

L is Libertarian, not Latino.  The census population of Gwinnett that is Latino is 17%.  I doubt actual voters comprise much more than half that, vis-a-vis the other races.

[Sam Spade]

African-Americans are 24% of the run-off electorate thus far

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/11/19/africanamerican_voting_down_in.html

After two days of early voting for the Dec. 2 runoffs in Georgia, African-American turnout is down significantly from the heady days leading up to the election of Barack Obama as president.

According to Secretary of State Karen Handel, black voters have cast 8,113 of 33,555 ballots, or 24 percent.

In the 45-day period of early voting prior to the general election, African-Americans cast 34.5 percent of advanced ballots. Maintaining enthusiasm in the U.S. Senate runoff has been viewed as the chief hurdle for Democrat Jim Martin, who faces Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Hence today’s rally headlining former President Bill Clinton, on the campus of Clark Atlanta University.

24.18% won't come anywhere near cutting it for Martin, obviously.  How long is the early voting period, anyways.

[Sam Spade]

As of yesterday, black turnout is 22.47%, white turnout is 74.87% and other turnout is 2.66% in early voting with 101,482 votes cast.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08_runoff.htm

[Sam Spade]

Blank turnout (after the weekend) is now 22.78% with 150,538 votes cast.  Whites are 74.41%.  Others are 2.81%.

[Sam Spade]

In the battle of seeing which 2012 GOP contender can pick up institutional support for a run, guess who will be appearing with Saxby in four campaign rallies on Monday, December 1 in Augusta, Perry, Savannah, and northern metro Atlanta...

http://www.wrbl.com/index.php/news/article/palin-to-campaign-for-saxby/48339/

[Sam Spade]

In the battle of seeing which 2012 GOP contender can pick up institutional support for a run, guess who will be appearing with Saxby in four campaign rallies on Monday, December 1 in Augusta, Perry, Savannah, and northern metro Atlanta...

http://www.wrbl.com/index.php/news/article/palin-to-campaign-for-saxby/48339/

lol

Martin's last hope.

Palin will energize the blacks?

[Sam Spade]

Blank turnout (after the weekend) is now 22.78% with 150,538 votes cast.  Whites are 74.41%.  Others are 2.81%.

Why is Georgia even keeping statistics on the racial breakdown of early voting?  Something to do with the Voting Rights Act?

New York's voter registration forms don't ask for the race of the registrant.  Why should Georgia?  Again, something to do with the Voting Rights Act?

I'm pretty sure that's the reason.