Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Lunar]

I'd give Chambliss 8:1 odds, the fundamentals favor him, but we'll have to see who has the better turnout operation.

[Lunar]

Miller's not doing much these days.  Good to hear

[Lunar]

Miller's not doing much these days.  Good to hear

The strange thing is that Miller is doing this for Chambliss after he ran ads strongly supporting Cleland and attacking Chambliss' attacks in 2002.  Talk about a flip-flopper. 

Well then it's fitting he showed up to the McCain-for-Chambliss rally.

[Lunar]

I think Martin has a chance if Obama commits.

Obama is worried about publicly committing for two reasons:
1) If Martin still loses, then Obama will lose some political capital
2) And no matter who wins, it will make Obama less friendly with the Senate Republicans - the extra vote gained might not be worth it.

Thus the inclination of Obama do simply do all of his support under-the-table.  However, Martin's campaign is trying to force Obama's hand by publicly and repeatedly requesting Obama's presence.  Obama will hurt his capital among Senate Democrats now if he does nothing, so I expect at least one Obama rally in Atlanta.

[Lunar]

The more I think about the race the less certain I am that Chambliss will win.

[Lunar]

Politico:

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Guess what type of radio stations that will air on

[Lunar]

Obama really doesn't want to associate himself with Martin, win or lose.  In many ways his relationship with Congressional Republicans is more important than Democrats in his first days of becoming president-elect and indeed perhaps throughout his entire first term.

But neglecting Martin's campaign's repeated calls for his presence would have been a slap on the face twenty times bigger than his vote on FISA to the left-wing blogosphere and would have represented his first battle with Senate Democrats, all of whom, I'm sure, were pressuring Obama to make a move.  Not only do they want to add one of their own to their ranks (especially because Martin is genuinely liberal) but because they don't particularly mind the concept of Obama alienating Senate Republicans and the president forced to deal exclusively with the Democrats -- not that this has happened yet, but this isn't a scenario that keeps Harry Reid up at night.  The more Senate Republicans are marginalized from discussion the more power Congressional Democrats have.

But that is all background noise.  The bottom line is that Obama doesn't want his opening moments to be engulfed in partisan campaigning but his hand has been forced.   Also, I'm sure a lot of Obama advisers don't like Chambliss.

[Lunar]

African-Americans are 24% of the run-off electorate thus far

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/11/19/africanamerican_voting_down_in.html

After two days of early voting for the Dec. 2 runoffs in Georgia, African-American turnout is down significantly from the heady days leading up to the election of Barack Obama as president.

According to Secretary of State Karen Handel, black voters have cast 8,113 of 33,555 ballots, or 24 percent.

In the 45-day period of early voting prior to the general election, African-Americans cast 34.5 percent of advanced ballots. Maintaining enthusiasm in the U.S. Senate runoff has been viewed as the chief hurdle for Democrat Jim Martin, who faces Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Hence today’s rally headlining former President Bill Clinton, on the campus of Clark Atlanta University.