Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Bacon King]

Chambliss with 54%.

[Bacon King]

My analysis here:

Martin will lose. Black turnout will be significantly lower than on election day and the high black turnout was the only reason he kept Chambliss under 50% in the first place. The only way Martin can get a high enough turnout in Atlanta (strongly connecting himself to Obama) is the exact same thing that would turn off the McCain-Martin voters which he would also still need. Basically the guy's just in a tough spot without any chance of victory.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Of what's mentioned...

Cobb & Gwinnett Counties: probably a bad sign for Martin, but can be a good thing depending on who's voting
Dekalb County: good sign for Martin
low turnout in Clayton: quite a bad sign for Martin

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

[Bacon King]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

Is that Latino number for Gwinnett based on census data or the current voter registration?

L is Libertarian, not Latino.  The census population of Gwinnett that is Latino is 17%.  I doubt actual voters comprise much more than half that, vis-a-vis the other races.

I was wondering the "hispanic" number was so small in your stat there. Doh, my bad.