Georgia Senate Run-off: Chambliss vs. Martin

[Brittain33]

The fact that Obama is avoiding the state, only sending staffers, and at least four Republican candidates of this election and next (McCain, Palin, Giuliani, and Romney) are heading to Georgia says everything we need to know about how they expect the race to turn out.

Maybe Palin and Romney will cross paths. That would be fun.

[Brittain33]

Well, let's hope it's the right kind of people who are waiting in those lines. And by that I mean black people.

Not in Cobb (Saxby +20.6% in 2002), Gwinnett (Saxby +29.8%), or Forsyth (Saxby +56.0%).

I don't know much about Forsyth, but south Gwinnett has become pretty Democratic lately as the minorities move in and Cobb has a sizeable black community as well.

As I mentioned in my last post a big first-day early voting turnout could mean enthusiasm for Martin. Though with Clayton's apparent lack of early voting it does seem that you're right.

Saxby won by 10% in Gwinnett (L at 4%, 20% black), 10% in Cobb (L at 4%, 23% black) and by 55% in Forsyth (L at 5%, 3% black) in the 2008 numbers.

They're talking 1500 people in each of the big metro counties on the first day. That is not enough to tell us anything about relative turnout.

[Brittain33]

Without runoff Chambliss would have won anyways, and pretty much w/out real question. I don't see why that would change at this point.

Special elections introduce a level of unpredictability that doesn't apply to regular elections. When turnout drops that much, anything can happen. LA-6 and MS-1 would probably have gone Republican as open seats in November. Otherwise this race would be solid for Chambliss, and he still has to be considered a favorite.

[Brittain33]

In the battle of seeing which 2012 GOP contender can pick up institutional support for a run, guess who will be appearing with Saxby in four campaign rallies on Monday, December 1 in Augusta, Perry, Savannah, and northern metro Atlanta...

http://www.wrbl.com/index.php/news/article/palin-to-campaign-for-saxby/48339/

lol

Martin's last hope.

[Brittain33]

It's probably to make sure there's no race-based voter "intimidation" or "suppression".

Basically, yeah.

Given that one of the state legislature's sponsors of their ID law all but admitted it would box out African American voters disproportionately, it's not a completely bogus issue.