The Ultimate Battle: Texas vs California!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

[Sbane]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

I dont think anyone will be shocked if that happens. That is what is expected to happen but we are exploring our options here a bit. And you may not want to hear it but there is a definite chance of Obama getting a higher margin in California than mac in texas.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

I dont think anyone will be shocked if that happens. That is what is expected to happen but we are exploring our options here a bit. And you may not want to hear it but there is a definite chance of Obama getting a higher margin in California than mac in texas.

Sure it can happen, but it's less likely to happen than what some of Obama's loyal fans are predicting around here. Obama getting 44% in Texas is much less likely than McCain getting 44% in California. California's Republican party is actually functioning unlike the Democrat party in Texas.

[Torie]

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Man, I need to get out more!  The GOP "functions" sort of in its shrinking redoubts as ambitious mediocrities fight for the scraps in assorted primaries (we had a doozer in my safe GOP state senate seat), but in general, it "functions" not at all, because it is dysfunctional, and out of sync with the leitmotif of the state. McCain's distancing of himself from this all, is the only reason sbane's little analysis is something other than beyond per adventure correct.

Addendum: I should add that if the Dems assume absolute power in the state (they need a few more seats in the legislature to do that, since tax bills require a two thirds vote), and really jack up taxes, as they are rather desperate to do now, and wreak havoc with the economy, and California because Michigan West, than the GOP will revive somewhat out of the wreckage, on the state level, but not the federal level. I don't really want to go there however.

[Nym90]

Texas, but not by much.

The last time a non-Texan was the GOP nominee, Texas was 13 points more Republican than the national average. So it's far from a stretch to say that if Obama wins by 4-5 points nationally he would only lose Texas by 10, and win California, a state that was 12 points more Dem than the national average last time, by 14-15. Even if he only won by 2-3 points he could still pull both of those margins potentially, though I agree McCain is a better candidate than Bush in California (albeit not by as much as he is a worse candidate in Texas).

[Sbane]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

I dont think anyone will be shocked if that happens. That is what is expected to happen but we are exploring our options here a bit. And you may not want to hear it but there is a definite chance of Obama getting a higher margin in California than mac in texas.

Sure it can happen, but it's less likely to happen than what some of Obama's loyal fans are predicting around here. Obama getting 44% in Texas is much less likely than McCain getting 44% in California. California's Republican party is actually functioning unlike the Democrat party in Texas.

I beg to differ..Arnie does not count. As for the rest of the statement... you would be right if the climate for republicans wasnt so bad right now. In a 50-50 race Texas will of course be more republican than California is democrat. But what if Obama wins by 4 or 5 points? What happens then? I think a win of that magnitude would be necessary to make this scenario occur.

[Sbane]

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Man, I need to get out more!  The GOP "functions" sort of in its shrinking redoubts as ambitious mediocrities fight for the scraps in assorted primaries (we had a doozer in my safe GOP state senate seat), but in general, it "functions" not at all, because it is dysfunctional, and out of sync with the leitmotif of the state. McCain's distancing of himself from this all, is the only reason sbane's little analysis is something other than beyond per adventure correct.

Sorry didnt understand you.. do you think my analysis is correct or wrong?

[Torie]

I think sbane that your analysis is more likely to be correct, if someone other than McCain were the GOP nominee. And I think the odds are more likely than not that it is wrong given that McCain is the nominee, but there is less than clear and convincing evidence that it is wrong, so the odds of you being right, are somewhere between 35% and 49%. Does this make any sense at all? 

[Eleanor Martins]

Until the Republicans break out of their Californian enclaves, I'll hedge my bets, but I voted for California anyway. It's very marginal.

[Sbane]

I think it is more likely to be wrong, if someone other than McCain were the GOP nominee. And I think the odds are more likely than not that it is wrong, but there is less than clear and convincing evidence that it is wrong, so the odds of you being right, are somewhere between 35% and 49% of being correct. Does this make any sense at all? 

Yes I see that you believe the caveat that I threw up will actually come true. See this could happen but Mccain cannot dispose of the albatross around the neck that is the Iraq war. If Iraq was not happening right now Mccain would have a good chance in my town. I think the key vote will be independents. I am basing my prognostication on data showing towns around my area switching from GOP to DEM plurality registration. This of course masks that it is among independents that registration growth is highest. The independents in my town tend to be socially liberal, fiscally conservative. They do not like the Iraq war but they also do not like taxes. So if this was any other year Mccain would indeed stand a good chance of winning my area but I think it is the war that is the ultimate nail in the coffin for him. Of course a million things could change between now and november but that goes without saying.

[Torie]

Iraq is slowly fading away, as the body count declines and things calm down. If Iraq becomes the choke point, than McCain is toast. Period. I am cautiously optimistic, that this election will not be dominated by anger over Bush's fecklessness vis a vis Iraq.

[Sbane]

Iraq is slowly fading away, as the body count declines and things calm down. If Iraq becomes the choke point, than McCain is toast. Period.

Sadly I do not think people even care anymore. The American public has been misinformed about this war from the start and now they do not even care to find out. If things continue as they are, the war may not be as big an issue, but those "anti-war" voters will remain that way.

[Nym90]

Iraq is slowly fading away, as the body count declines and things calm down. If Iraq becomes the choke point, than McCain is toast. Period. I am cautiously optimistic, that this election will not be dominated by anger over Bush's fecklessness vis a vis Iraq.

Yeah, because having the focus on the economy is so much better, right?

If anything I'd think you'd rather gamble on the election being about Iraq, where at least McCain might be able to paint Obama as weak on national security and such. If it's about domestic issues you guys are toast.

[cannonia]

The American public has been misinformed about this war from the start

And sadly the news media are not going out of their way to correct their mistaken reporting.

I think the question is a toss-up.  California will be closer if McCain is perceived as more moderate than Obama.  Texas will be closer if the reverse is true.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well...

I'm predicting
TX
McCain- 55%

CA
Obama - 56%

[Torie]

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We shall see. I don't think Obama's domestic plans are going to hold up very well to closer scrutiny, particularly his idea of lifting the cap on social security taxes, the effect of his ideas on the cost of gas, and the price tag for it all. The GOP attack machine is just getting warned up. Stay tuned.

[Sam Spade]

In a 50-50 race, it should be Texas I suspect.  Granted, it is close enough within the MOE to where I could be wrong, and if not 50-50, anything can happen.

And although McCain is not Bush obviously, he is actually a pretty good candidate for Texas dynamics.  That means that I would expect he runs a few points ahead of "normal generic Texas Republican", embodied by someone like Cornyn, for example.  That means, of course, he won't get the generic additional 5-point bump that Bush got in Texas because of being a Texan.

Sure, Obama will turn out the blacks more and should perform stronger in Austin, but he's really the wrong candidate to go after McCain's weakness in Texas, which would likely be rural east Texas.  And he's not a good candidate to try a get Hispanics to show up.  I'll report back on whether there have been any changes on the ground there. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

As it turned out, Texas was closer by quite a bit, though obviously neither was competitive.

[Edu]

So in the end, McCain won Texas by 11% and Obama won California by 24% lol

[Person Man]

So in the end, McCain won Texas by 11% and Obama won California by 24% lol

[Lief 🗽]

And contrary to what Sam Spade speculated, Obama got the Hispanics in Texas to turn up just fine. Whites were just especially racist this year.

[Хahar 🤔]

sbane, off topic, but I spoke with my Indian neighbor about politics this evening while petting his very friendly dog, and he said most of the folks he knows in the tribe, are not interested in politics, and more interested in making money. He basically said that chatting about politics was infra dig among the first generation. I asked about his son, and he said his recently college graduated son (from yes UCI) was more interested in fast cars and women than politics.

Yes indeed Indians are interested in making money. In India it is all about out hustling the competition and there is no time for politics. That is except of course in the wonderful leftist states of West bengal and Kerela. There they take time to contemplate more intellectual matters and as a Bengali, I guess I am continuing the tradition here.

Old stuff, but Bengali pride!