Begich leads Stevens by 3 votes

[Bacon King]

As far as I know in cases like this the Senate can accept whoever they want for whatever reason they want.

Legally, anyway. Of course if they make a stupid biased choice they'd be paying for it in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Senate would probably simply basically "preemptively expel" Stevens by refusing to seat him, leaving the seat vacant and triggering a special election. Luckily it'll likely be a moot issue.

[emailking]

Well they can't accept Begich if Stevens got more votes. I'm not sure they can accept either if the election result hasn't been certified yet.

They can't accept Begich if Stevens got more votes, but they are the final authority on who got more votes. The certified election results only matter insofar as Congress almost always accepts them as the real results. If, say, Alaska certifies Stevens the winner but the Senate thinks this was only due to corruption in the vote counting process, they can accept Begich. (Unlikely but they could do it.) Likewise, if no result is certified by Alaska at the start of the new session the Senators can decide themselves who the winner is.

[minionofmidas]

They have a deadline to count things - on November 19th. They have a self-imposed deadline when they want to have everything counted - November 18th.
Of course, there might be a recount after that, but this should be over by the time of the Chambliss vs Martin runoff.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/news/2008GeneralUpdatedBallotCountingSchedule.pdf

Is it just me or is 8am today over, even 8am Alaskan time?

[minionofmidas]

Anybody got a reason for that - also where that article's figure came from?

Just noticed I misread, and the article says they counted 9000 earlies on wednesday.

Also...

Here is an update.  I would not count Stevens out yet. What is left to count are the late arriving absentee ballots, and those might be the most favorable to Stevens, given Begich pushed the early voting hard, and earlier absentees were before Stevens came back to campaign, and run some effective ads.

they were also cast after Stevens was convicted. Some of the earlier ones weren't. Not that there is necessarily all that strong link between when a ballot was cast, when it arrives, when it is checked against the register of day voters (in Alaska, if you voted early or absentee, then changed your mind, you can day vote. Only your day vote will be counted.) and when it is counted.

[emailking]

New count

Begich: 137,527
Stevens: 136,466

He's up 1,061 now.

http://www.adn.com/election/results/story/577002.html#us_senate?gallery

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Begich now leads 138959 to 137937, a margin of 1022 votes or 0.35%. There will be a recount if it is within 0.5%.

[Lunar]

Clarification: There's an automatic, publicly funded recount of the margin is <0.5% (about 1600 votes).

Stevens can pony up $10k and force a recount regardless, if he really wants to drag things on (likely).

[Sam Spade]

Looks to me like the *bush* is all in, as well as Fairbanks, Juneau, the peninsula and Sarah Palin territory.  Of course, there may still be some missing ballots there, who knows?

What's left is Anchorage (which oddly enough, will probably not move the needle much) and Eagle River (which might be reporting today).

Anyway, Begich should win, barring something strange, but I doubt it'll outside of recount range.  Who knows, however...

[minionofmidas]

Unscientific estimate: Chance of Stevens winning went from 2% to 0%. Chance of Begich getting to over 1600 votes went from 25% to 7.5%. Or something like that.

In the Presidential race, Palin (with running mate) actually moved back up to over 60 - 60.01% to be precise. Although I'd guess the chance of staying there is under 50%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Well they can't accept Begich if Stevens got more votes. I'm not sure they can accept either if the election result hasn't been certified yet.

They can't accept Begich if Stevens got more votes, but they are the final authority on who got more votes. The certified election results only matter insofar as Congress almost always accepts them as the real results. If, say, Alaska certifies Stevens the winner but the Senate thinks this was only due to corruption in the vote counting process, they can accept Begich. (Unlikely but they could do it.) Likewise, if no result is certified by Alaska at the start of the new session the Senators can decide themselves who the winner is.

they could only do that if there was strong evidence of widespread fraud. Even then, I doubt Harry Reid would have the spine. At any rate, it looks like a moot point.

[emailking]

they could only do that if there was strong evidence of any fraud. Even then, I doubt Harry Reid would have the spine. At any rate, it looks like a moot point.

There doesn't have to be any evidence of fraud. The Senate decides who its members are.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/06/minnestoa-voters-decide-coleman-franken-senate-race/

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is there any indication of how many of the "questioned ballots" are actually being counted?

[minionofmidas]

There would be, if someone had downloaded the data in the file of what was left to count before friday. It's offline now, so we can't compare.
I guess it's most though - in Alaska, you can vote at any precinct in your state house district, and that's what most of these question votes are.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's what's left:

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/files/08GENR/absentee_early_question_numbers.pdf

Begich is now leading in most of these districts, so I think it's safe to say Stevens is toast. Thank God.

[minionofmidas]

Lol. House District 7 (north Fairbanks area), the closest Rep-held seat even on election night results, now stands with all votes counted at

Mike Kelly (R, i) 5000
Karl Kassel (D) 4999
write-ins 36

The district voted for McCain, Begich and Berkowitz. I'm pretty sure this one's going to a recount...
Question's actually went strongly for the Republican here. Dem trounced on earlies and won absentees, though.

[Lunar]

That's Alaska for you.  If Kassel got caught with child pornography on the eve of election day, he might have lost by four or five votes instead of one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Finally, the last votes will be counted today. Based on my half-assed statistical analysis, I believe Begich will pick up 800-900 votes from the absentees, and 200-300 from the question ballots.

If every remaining ballot is counted, he will need a 1,588 vote margin to avoid a mandatory recount.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm willing to bet Stevens will never concede, like Obrador in Mexico.

[platypeanArchcow]

I'm willing to bet Stevens will never concede, like Obrador in Mexico.

Nitpick: López is his "primary" surname.

[Alcon]

Begich has increased his lead to 2,734 votes.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Begich has increased his lead to 2,734 votes.

Goodbye Ted Stevens. It was nice knowing you.

[Ronnie]

Congratulations, Senator-elect Begich.

[TheresNoMoney]

538.com has called the race for Begich. He says that Stevens would have to win the remaining 10,000 or so votes by 25% to pull this race off.....not happening.