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| | |-+  Red/Blue State Map for 2012
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Author Topic: Red/Blue State Map for 2012  (Read 26093 times)
opebo
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« on: November 13, 2008, 04:32:13 am »
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Does anyone else think the Red State/Blue State paradigm is alive and well in spite of Obama's landslide?

Here's my idea of where the divide rests for 2012, given the results and trends in 2008:



Basically the biggest changes are that VA and CO are now tossups in an even race, instead of lean Republican, NV is now lean Democrat (though obviously a hard one to predict, I think it is clearly moving that direction).  I put Indiana and North Carolina as lean Republican, and Ohio as tossup, but I think it is just as reasonable to put IA and NC as strong GOP and OH as lean GOP.

Anyone else care to post a map?
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2008, 05:42:49 am »
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2 maps:

No. 1: Obama has a bad term, doesn't do many of his promises, Iraq becomes almost a barren wasteland after leaving, Wall Street plummeting, The rich are taxed even less, and the GOP nominates a Populist like Huckabee:



No. 2: Obama has a good term, keeps most of his promises, Oraq becomes stable after leaving, The Stock Market is up, The "spread the welth" plan actually happens and works, and the GOP nominates a Centrist again:


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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2008, 08:57:56 am »
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This will be the starting map if Obama has an ok term. Note states could change due to who win the Republican nom.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2008, 11:08:03 am »
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No. 2: Obama has a good term, keeps most of his promises, Oraq becomes stable after leaving, The Stock Market is up, The "spread the welth" plan actually happens and works, and the GOP nominates a Centrist again:



     If Obama has a good term, how is NV anywhere close to a tossup? That aside, McCain when he ran for President was not a centrist by any stretch of the imagination.
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2008, 11:24:10 am »
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I doubt Iowa will be solid Dem in 2012: it was this year because McCain was a bad candidate for the state, not because of any change in the state's politics.
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2008, 12:36:42 pm »
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I doubt Iowa will be solid Dem in 2012: it was this year because McCain was a bad candidate for the state, not because of any change in the state's politics.

You're probably right.. why don't you make a map?
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2008, 12:53:54 pm »
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On a uniform swing from 2008 [horrible assumption this cycle, but useful for reference]:


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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2008, 02:50:47 pm »
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Adjusted slightly...

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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2008, 02:55:08 pm »
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Adjusted slightly...



Well your predictions for 2008 were wildly off so I won't take this seriously.
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2008, 03:28:14 pm »
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None of these numbers should be taken seriously-

This will be the average map based on 2008 results-

Obama 49
R          49
I            2



This is if the trend between 2004 and 2008 becomes 2008 and 2012, on both national and state levels-

Obama 58
R           39
I              3




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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2008, 03:39:45 pm »
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If Barack Obama enjoys a successful first term as 44th President of the United States:



If Barack Obama suffers an unsuccessful term as 44th President of the United States:

COMING SOON
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2008, 11:14:14 am »
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Well your predictions for 2008 were wildly off so I won't take this seriously.

I don't see what the one has to do with the other, afleitch.  Besides, I'm sure you know I was engaged in a form of superstition with my 2008 prediction.
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2008, 11:18:58 am »
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Obama's ceiling next election:

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opebo
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2008, 12:14:35 pm »
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Obama's ceiling next election:



Wow.  Seriously now..
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2008, 02:19:26 pm »
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Obama's ceiling next election:



Wow.  Seriously now..

Keep in mind he is very unlikely to reach this ceiling, but with an ultra succesful first term, this is possible.
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2008, 03:24:45 pm »
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NE-1?

Also, if Obama has a wildly successful first term, expect above-average swings in the very places that swung against him in 2008 (part of that swing comes from people balking at the notion of a Black president and/or a president with an exotic background - things that people *might* have gotten used to in four years time. Then again, Obama also has the potential to fail really disastrously. Know the saying about having to be at least as good as the White guy *all the time*?) Expect relatively little improvement (beyond those created by demographic changes between here and four years out) in the places that swung most wildly towards him.



As to the redblue map for 2012... this averages out 2004 and 2008 results:


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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2008, 02:47:16 pm »
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60% = 10+% margin of victory
30(B)/40(R)% = 5-10% margin of victory [chose diff % shades to increase contrast]
Gray = less than 5% margin of victory

Obama/Biden - 458* EV - 57% PV (+TX, WV, AZ, GA, KY, ND, SD, MT)
Romney/Jindal - 80* EV - 43% PV (+TN, KS)
*After 2010 Reapportionment

This is contingent upon passage of truly univ. healthcare, progressive taxation, employee free choice act, jobs/infrastructure programs.  I think it'll get done, (they'll be able to get 60 votes in the Senate and/or Republicans won't be able to sustain a filibuster).  The Dems. pick up Senate seats in NC, FL, OH, NH, KY, and maybe PA in 2010.  Vitter holds on in LA.  So by 2010, Dems. will have enough votes to get anything done.  The public will like that, and Obama will enjoy what is undeniably a landslide.  If he governs as the media wants him to, a pro-abortion corporatist, he'll lose--even to Palin (she obviously won't get the nomination, though).
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2008, 04:19:14 pm »
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Obama's ceiling next election:



Wow.  Seriously now..

Keep in mind he is very unlikely to reach this ceiling, but with an ultra succesful first term, this is possible.

Maybe if Tom Tancredo is the GOP nominee and he is caught saying something like "SC and TX are full of inbred retards."
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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2008, 02:30:54 am »
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What about this.



2008 +60%s.
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« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2008, 02:32:55 am »
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What about this.



2008 +60%s.
Was NE-02 +60%? I would think it would be in the 50s.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2008, 05:17:05 am »
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Obama's ceiling next election:



Wow.  Seriously now..

Keep in mind he is very unlikely to reach this ceiling, but with an ultra succesful first term, this is possible.

Maybe if Tom Tancredo is the GOP nominee and he is caught saying something like "SC and TX are full of inbred retards."
Don't pay attention to the shades - it's just the 2004 map with some colors switched.
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« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2008, 08:58:18 pm »
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Dark red: Likely Democrat
Light red: Leans Democrat
Neither red nor blue: Pure tossup
Light blue: Leans Republican
Dark blue: Likely Republican

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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2008, 09:01:53 pm »
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Dark red: Likely Democrat
Light red: Leans Democrat
Neither red nor blue: Pure tossup
Light blue: Leans Republican
Dark blue: Likely Republican



Switch Virginia to tossup and I agree.
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2008, 09:10:25 pm »
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Dark red: Likely Democrat
Light red: Leans Democrat
Neither red nor blue: Pure tossup
Light blue: Leans Republican
Dark blue: Likely Republican



Switch Virginia to tossup and I agree.

If they vote Democrat again in 2012, then I will label it as a pure tossup. But until then, I still do classify it as having a slight Republican tilt.
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Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

So, in less than four years, get excited for the 2016 MetLife Financial U Pick The Prez Extravaganza. If you tweet a picture of your completed ballot with the hashtag #ivoted, you could win a trip for two to the inauguration or an iTunes gift card.
Blazers93
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« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2008, 09:19:45 pm »
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Good, except you have the Virginia's wrong. WV is likely Rep, and VA is tossup. Oh yeah, and NV should be Lean D after the blowout this year.
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Sorry for my posts before: November 8, 2008
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