Strongest swings in counties with over 100,000 votes

[nclib]

Strongest swings to Obama of counties with over 100,000 votes:

Honolulu, HI      38.31
Hidalgo, TX   McAllen   28.65
Hamilton, IN   Indy burbs   26.83
Marion, IN   Indy   26.36
McHenry, IL   Chi. Burbs   25.74
Osceola, FL   Orlando burbs   25.21
Allen, IN   Fort Wayne   22.84
Prince William, VA   NoVa   22.33
Kane, IL   Chi. Burbs   22.09
Douglas, NE   Omaha   21.93
Salt Lake, UT      21.47
Cumberland, NC   Fayetteville   21.21
Mecklenburg, NC   Charlotte   20.76
DuPage, IL   Chi. Burbs   20.43
Henrico, VA   Richmond burbs   20.42
Ottawa, MI   Grand Rapids burbs   20.22
Loudoun, VA   NoVa   20.2
Lancaster, PA      20.06
Riverside, CA      20.02

Does anyone have any hypotheses on reasons for the swing in these counties?

[Bacon King]

What about Orange County, CA? Has to be up there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What about Orange County, CA? Has to be up there.

Not quite there. That's not even the top swinger in California. Riverside swung by about 20. Some other decent swingers are Stanislaus, Fresno, San Joaquin, and San Bernardino.

[memphis]

Other big swingers: Mecklenberg and Cumberland, NC; Henrico, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William VA; Bernalillo NM; Clark, NV; Harris and Bexar, TX

[Sbane]

As has been noted Riverside is close to the ones on this list. Orange county was about 18 points. Salt Lake city is very very interesting. Mainly because I do believe Obama didn't run ads there. I guess ads could explain Omaha to a degree but not SLC. Does it not have a lot of mormons or something?

[Bacon King]

Obama had a big Utah organization in the primary IIRC.

[Brittain33]

As has been noted Riverside is close to the ones on this list. Orange county was about 18 points. Salt Lake city is very very interesting. Mainly because I do believe Obama didn't run ads there. I guess ads could explain Omaha to a degree but not SLC. Does it not have a lot of mormons or something?

SLC has a huge number of non-Mormons, actually.

[Alcon]

And SLC also has a lot of Mormons in the same way NYC has a lot of Jews.

[nclib]

Other big swingers: Mecklenberg and Cumberland, NC; Henrico, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William VA; Bernalillo NM; Clark, NV; Harris and Bexar, TX

The list in the first post is now complete. I included counties with swings over 20--Mecklenburg, Cumberland, NC; Henrico, Loudoun, and Prince William VA are up; the others in your post had swings from 11 to 17.

[nclib]

Strongest swings to Obama of counties with over 100,000 votes:

Honolulu, HI      38.31
Hidalgo, TX   McAllen   28.65
Hamilton, IN   Indy burbs   26.83
Marion, IN   Indy   26.36
McHenry, IL   Chi. Burbs   25.74
Osceola, FL   Orlando burbs   25.21
Allen, IN   Fort Wayne   22.84
Prince William, VA   NoVa   22.33
Kane, IL   Chi. Burbs   22.09
Douglas, NE   Omaha   21.93
Salt Lake, UT      21.47
Cumberland, NC   Fayetteville   21.21
Mecklenburg, NC   Charlotte   20.76
DuPage, IL   Chi. Burbs   20.43
Henrico, VA   Richmond burbs   20.42
Ottawa, MI   Grand Rapids burbs   20.22
Loudoun, VA   NoVa   20.2
Lancaster, PA      20.06
Riverside, CA      20.02

Does anyone have any hypotheses on reasons for the swing in these counties?

Looking up the demographics of these counties, it looks like many (Hidalgo, Hamilton, McHenry, Osceola, Prince William, Kane, Salt Lake, Mecklenburg, Loudoun, Riverside) are fast-growing. Are these counties being filled with types of people who generally vote Democratic, or did Obama have a greater appeal to these communities than Kerry did?

[Torie]

As has been noted Riverside is close to the ones on this list. Orange county was about 18 points. Salt Lake city is very very interesting. Mainly because I do believe Obama didn't run ads there. I guess ads could explain Omaha to a degree but not SLC. Does it not have a lot of mormons or something?

SLC is about 50% gentile.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Strongest swings to Obama of counties with over 100,000 votes:

Honolulu, HI      38.31
Hidalgo, TX   McAllen   28.65
Hamilton, IN   Indy burbs   26.83
Marion, IN   Indy   26.36
McHenry, IL   Chi. Burbs   25.74
Osceola, FL   Orlando burbs   25.21
Allen, IN   Fort Wayne   22.84
Prince William, VA   NoVa   22.33
Kane, IL   Chi. Burbs   22.09
Douglas, NE   Omaha   21.93
Salt Lake, UT      21.47
Cumberland, NC   Fayetteville   21.21
Mecklenburg, NC   Charlotte   20.76
DuPage, IL   Chi. Burbs   20.43
Henrico, VA   Richmond burbs   20.42
Ottawa, MI   Grand Rapids burbs   20.22
Loudoun, VA   NoVa   20.2
Lancaster, PA      20.06
Riverside, CA      20.02

Does anyone have any hypotheses on reasons for the swing in these counties?

Looking up the demographics of these counties, it looks like many (Hidalgo, Hamilton, McHenry, Osceola, Prince William, Kane, Salt Lake, Mecklenburg, Loudoun, Riverside) are fast-growing. Are these counties being filled with types of people who generally vote Democratic, or did Obama have a greater appeal to these communities than Kerry did?

Housing market's gone belly-up hasn't it.

[Brittain33]

Looking up the demographics of these counties, it looks like many (Hidalgo, Hamilton, McHenry, Osceola, Prince William, Kane, Salt Lake, Mecklenburg, Loudoun, Riverside) are fast-growing. Are these counties being filled with types of people who generally vote Democratic, or did Obama have a greater appeal to these communities than Kerry did?

Yes.

Some of it is driven by much higher minority turnout and Latino support for Obama (Hidalgo, Osceola, part of Mecklenburg), some of it is driven by middle-class and affluent suburbs feeling the pain this year and not connecting with Republicans at all, some of it is a combination of the latter and Chicago allegiances. You can be sure that lots of those Obama voters were Bush voters in '04 in places like Hamilton County, IN and Loudoun County, VA.

[Nym90]

Did any counties with 100k plus voters swing to McCain? If so, what were the top swingers (or if not, which had the lowest swings to Obama?)?

[Smash255]

Looking up the demographics of these counties, it looks like many (Hidalgo, Hamilton, McHenry, Osceola, Prince William, Kane, Salt Lake, Mecklenburg, Loudoun, Riverside) are fast-growing. Are these counties being filled with types of people who generally vote Democratic, or did Obama have a greater appeal to these communities than Kerry did?

Yes.

Some of it is driven by much higher minority turnout and Latino support for Obama (Hidalgo, Osceola, part of Mecklenburg), some of it is driven by middle-class and affluent suburbs feeling the pain this year and not connecting with Republicans at all, some of it is a combination of the latter and Chicago allegiances. You can be sure that lots of those Obama voters were Bush voters in '04 in places like Hamilton County, IN and Loudoun County, VA.

In some of those areas you also have northern transplants as well as what you mentioned with non connecting with Republicans as well.  Many of those areas the GOP was strong for awhile due to a rather large group if moderate to liberal Rockefeller Republicans who have been increasingly unhappy with the Republican Party, and where the GOP has been losing ground for some time.  Granted the ground they lost really picked up pace in 08, but many of these areas have been trending Democratic. 

[Smash255]

Did any counties with 100k plus voters swing to McCain? If so, what were the top swingers (or if not, which had the lowest swings to Obama?)?

Massachusetts had four counties of over 100,000 which swung towards McCain

Briston 4.80%
Norfolk 3.12%
Pltmouth .82%
Worcseter .37%

Have found two counties/ parishes outside of Kerry's home state with 100,000 votes which swung towards McCain, both in Louisiana (what a shock)

St Tammany 3.12%
Jefferson      2.69%

Other than that the smallest swing towards Obama was Pulaski, AR 0.73%

[Verily]

Yavapai County, Arizona also swung towards McCain. (It had under 100,000 votes in 2004, though.)

[Nhoj]

Did any counties with 100k plus voters swing to McCain? If so, what were the top swingers (or if not, which had the lowest swings to Obama?)?

Massachusetts had four counties of over 100,000 which swung towards McCain

Briston 4.80%
Norfolk 3.12%
Pltmouth .82%
Worcseter .37%

Have found two counties/ parishes outside of Kerry's home state with 100,000 votes which swung towards McCain, both in Louisiana (what a shock)

St Tammany 3.12%
Jefferson      2.69%

Other than that the smallest swing towards Obama was Pulaski, AR 0.73%

I am fairly sure in the Pittsburgh suburbs that Westmoreland county swung to McCain and Washington county was 2k votes short of 100k and swung to McCain.
I don't know by how much though.

[RI]

Galveston County, TX swung 3.09% to McCain. It had 105,004 votes.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I love all the big swings in VA

[nclib]

Mahoning and Trumbull in eastern OH have over 100,000 votes and swung towards McCain.

Edit: Trumbull swung to McCain by 1.4%. Mahoning is actually wrong on Dave's map--it's shaded blue on the swing map while it swung (though by only 0.61 pts) to Obama.