The Southern White Vote: Pre-Election Polls vs. Exit Polls
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  The Southern White Vote: Pre-Election Polls vs. Exit Polls
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Author Topic: The Southern White Vote: Pre-Election Polls vs. Exit Polls  (Read 17418 times)
Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!
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« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2008, 06:03:35 PM »
« edited: November 16, 2008, 06:05:36 PM by Furlough from the truth »

I gotta say, I am really fed up with people hating on the South.  I'm a left wing liberal and sure -- I would much rather everyone down there (and everywhere) voted MY way in both Presidential and Senatorial races.  And I sure wish race never entered the picture.

But this business of characterizing the South as stupid, illiterate and hateful is a mile wide and a quarter inch deep.  The Ku Klux Klan is alive and well...in Indiana.  The Church of Jesus Christ, Christian was getting along swimmingly through the 1990's...in Ohio.  Radical hate groups, skinheads, neo-nazis and others have vomited their ugliness in places like New Hampshire, Idaho, Illinois and Michigan...as well as down south.

Just today, in church, a lady asked that we remember President Bush in prayer as he leaves the White House and President-elect Obama as he enters.  I was touched.  But then she added, "I'm afraid some crazy from down south will try to kill Obama just because he's black."
I had a polite word with her afterwards. 

Sure, there are ignorant SOB hatemongers in the South.  There are also men and women committed to the struggle for freedom and dignity.  Morris Dees is a Southerner.  Jimmy Carter is a Southerner.  Dr. King was a Southerner.  And there are plenty more Southrons who are just living day to day, not hating anyone but not particularly committed to any specifc kind of social justice.  Getting the bills paid, the kids raised and staying healthy and happy pretty much take up all their time.  Can any of us blame them?  I hope they eventually join the struggle, but if they don't -- they are neither stupid, nor racist.

The story of ignorance, hate and racism is an American story.  We recoil when we see the Confederate flag -- claiming it is a symbol of hate.  Really?  The KKK and various Nazi movements use it, to be sure.  But they also use our beloved stars and stripes.  Does that make our present flag a hate symbol?  We wring our hands because the Stars and bars and other incarnations of the Southern flag flew over slave states.  True.  So did our precious flag.  New York was a slave state once.

If we are to be one nation, we need to dispense with nonsensical regional stereotypes.  When we see race hatred, confront that for the stupidity and evil it is.  When we encounter ignorance, superstition and urban legend, we need to educate.  But where the person spewing hate or ignorance is from has nothing to do with it.

Sorry for the long rant.  But just as I get sick and tired of hearing how liberals, New Englanders and Californians "hate America" or come from "fake America"...so I get bone-weary of being told Georgians are inbred dupes and Arkansans are unenlightened hate merchants.
JS OWNED
for some reason this thread reminds me of this song, by a great American rock band 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COGY0mJYGtc

"talk about neil young, I don't like to talk about the gentleman"
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StatesRights
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« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2008, 06:05:13 PM »

Skynyrd and Young got along just find Rascal. Go read some music history and educate yourself.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2008, 06:21:04 PM »

You can't simply take one pre-election poll and use that as the comparison for actual voting patterns. And exit polls are crap anyway. So this comparison is actually useless.
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Nym90
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« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2008, 06:24:36 PM »

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places). I highly doubt a Democrat could do any worse with whites in Alabama or Mississippi than Obama did. It is (sickeningly) amusing the whites in these states are now very nearly as partisan as blacks, though.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2008, 07:04:53 PM »

I'm glad the South was marginalized. The GOP should keep going with the South as its base. We will see how that helps in 2050.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2008, 07:12:19 PM »

I'm sorry, but I wouldn't trade the culture we have in Charleston for anything. I really could care less what everyone here thinks.
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MK
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« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2008, 07:53:23 PM »

Being Bi- Racial and from the south I can tell you that we are not as racist as you may think.

It has more to do with education of the issues, and most white voters here just don't understand them so they vote on other things.  The right wing bible thumpers have alot to do with it aswell.  Obama is not the right candidate for the south maybe if he does a pretty good job in 4 years that can change. 

I could win in the south I bet.

Iam proud to be from the south.
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angus
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« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2008, 08:23:37 PM »


except for Tennessee and West Virginia, apparently. 

Tender Branson, as long as you were listing these states, you might have listed all fifty.  It would have been interesting to see this data for all states.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2008, 08:37:38 PM »


Yes, I do.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2008, 09:03:22 PM »

Dump Lieberman. I can't stand him. Traitor. Let him leave the Democratic party. Then, let the people of Conneticut choose his fate if he decides to run again.
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Workers' Friend
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« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2008, 09:04:06 PM »

Dump Lieberman. I can't stand him. Traitor. Let him leave the Democratic party. Then, let the people of Conneticut choose his fate if he decides to run again.

Ain't that offtopic son?
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2008, 09:06:22 PM »

LoL, I know. I just had to say that after seeing his/her screen name.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2008, 09:06:47 PM »

LoL, I know. I just had to say that after seeing his screen name.

okay then....
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2008, 10:00:41 PM »

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places).

Kerry had one thing against him - Catholic.  Obama has three - black, Muslim and *exotic*.

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Not talking about Alabama or Mississippi, Nym.  You know what states I'm referring to.  They weren't voting on economic issues there this election anyway (even though they were the issues).
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Verily
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2008, 10:07:45 PM »

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places).

Kerry had one thing against him - Catholic.  Obama has three - black, Muslim and *exotic*.

You would appear to be supporting his argument, given Obama's performance. (Also, I doubt there was much anti-Catholic bias in 2004. The bias was regional, although you could argue that the regional divide has some of its roots in anti-Catholic views that no longer manifest as such today.)
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2008, 10:07:48 PM »

one question:  Exit poll dumb weights this year?  My guess is 'yes'
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2008, 10:08:49 PM »

Dump Lieberman. I can't stand him. Traitor. Let him leave the Democratic party. Then, let the people of Conneticut choose his fate if he decides to run again.

You know we have several threads for people to bash Lieberman, right?  This is the thread for people to unjustly bash the South Tongue
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2008, 10:40:19 PM »

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places).

Kerry had one thing against him - Catholic.  Obama has three - black, Muslim and *exotic*.

You would appear to be supporting his argument, given Obama's performance. (Also, I doubt there was much anti-Catholic bias in 2004. The bias was regional, although you could argue that the regional divide has some of its roots in anti-Catholic views that no longer manifest as such today.)

A lot of fundie protestants still don't like Catholics. Still, being a Boston Bhramin hurt Kerry far more than being a Catholic did.
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MK
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2008, 11:37:41 PM »

Whens the last time a Liberal won in the South?  Carter doesn't count because he ran more moderate when campaigning.

Not saying Race and the Muslim rumors don't play a factor just saying Obamas a lefty and they don't win here.

Depending on how his 4 years go, I can in-vision Obama winning SC, and GA next time around if the GOP continues down the same path.

Give the south a break

NC and VA went for him that's a start.
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Aizen
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« Reply #44 on: November 17, 2008, 12:24:20 AM »

Whens the last time a Liberal won in the South?  Carter doesn't count because he ran more moderate when campaigning.

Not saying Race and the Muslim rumors don't play a factor just saying Obamas a lefty and they don't win here.

Depending on how his 4 years go, I can in-vision Obama winning SC, and GA next time around if the GOP continues down the same path.

Give the south a break

NC and VA went for him that's a start.


Virginia and North Carolina have been officially booted from the South since they voted for Obama. There is hope for SC and GA too since they were pretty close. I do not, and will not, have to respect the rest of the South after the way they trended this election (TN, AR, MS, AL, LA etc)
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opebo
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« Reply #45 on: November 17, 2008, 01:24:58 AM »

Certainly the South is the most racist part of the country, by far.  However, the rest of the country is also very racist, and thus there are other equally or more interesting distinctions between the South and the rest of the country - cultural, economic, ethnic (by that I mean white ethnicity).  I think we can all agree that there is something horrible about the South, but is it just the racism?  No, it is a far broader malaise than that.

Keep in mind however, that the whole country sucks, so it is a bit unfair to dump on the region that happens to be the worst.  Pot calling the kettle black as it were.  hehheh..
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #46 on: November 17, 2008, 01:29:43 AM »

The South had a choice and it's their choice. I'm wondering how people in the South reacted to Obama's win. The South has been such an important region for any candidate running for president in recent elections.  They don't have that power anymore. I'm glad! I believe that's good for the future of our nation. The GOP knows that they cannot win by being a Southern party. That definitely will doom the party for the next 50 years, at least. Unless the Dems screw it up. However, the Dems cannot be the party of the Northeast and the West.

Both parties will have to expand. I believe the Southwest will be the region to watch. It will be South against the Southwest. Interesting how things have changed in the last 10 years.

I do believe we are seeing Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico leaving the GOP party. We'll see how that unfolds in the next 10 years.

If Virginia and North Carolina keep trending Democratic...damn...what can the GOP do to win presidential elections?

NC will probably be a tossup, slightly R.
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Nym90
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« Reply #47 on: November 17, 2008, 01:32:10 AM »

Indiana and Ohio are not part of the South.  And a good argument can be made that KY, WV and OK aren't either.

Still, this is surprising how?  Imagine if the election hadn't been about Democratic-favorable issues (for now) in a very Democratic-favorable environment, for a sec...

Well, we don't have to imagine it; 2004 was about Republican favorable issues (at the time) and in a Republican favorable environment, and Kerry didn't do much worse with the white southern vote (better in some places).

Kerry had one thing against him - Catholic.  Obama has three - black, Muslim and *exotic*.

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Not talking about Alabama or Mississippi, Nym.  You know what states I'm referring to.  They weren't voting on economic issues there this election anyway (even though they were the issues).

Oh, I knew you weren't talking about those states. I was. Smiley

There seems to be pretty clear evidence that the "exotic" and "Muslim" problems went away far better in areas Obama actually campaigned in both in physically and also in terms of having a campaign organization and ad spending, as opposed to those in which he didn't, which shows people are at least persuadable when provided with evidence (although, maybe he deliberately didn't target areas where he knew his message would get a less receptive audience? It's a chicken and egg problem to a certain extent, the relationship between campaigning and ad spending and electoral performance).

I think Al is on to something too in that Obama very much avoided a class based campaign, especially considering how potentially successful such a campaign could've been in such troubled economic times. Thus, the white working poor who didn't have a cultural connection to Obama like those with similar melanin levels to him felt saw no real reason to vote for him for economic reasons, especially since they saw nothing of him either personally or on tv (and as Al has also pointed out, they may have little or no access to the internet also, so combined with never seeing him or his ads, it allowed myths to propagate about him in these areas). I think economic issues are still definitely winners for Democrats in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, much as they have been for local Democrats in these states even in recent times, it just takes a Democrat willing to work to win these states. I certainly hope to see Obama make more of an effort here come 2012 (especially since if he's in a position politically where he can afford to, it's obviously a good sign for the health of the economy and the nation).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #48 on: November 17, 2008, 06:45:57 AM »

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StatesRights
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« Reply #49 on: November 17, 2008, 08:27:41 AM »

Whens the last time a Liberal won in the South? 

FDR
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