Kansas 2010: Can anyone defeat Brownback?

[BM]

Kathleen Sebelius is term limited so she's out of the picture, but if she's given a position in the Obama administration, which I think is very likely, Lt. Governor Mark Parkinson will have a leg up in trying to get reelected.




However, he was a longtime Republican before and even served as chair of the Kansas GOP.  Will he have the support or will he even try?  Are there any others who can spoil what appears to be a likely GOP pickup?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Some on this site will tell you Kansas is trending mad left!

[BM]

Sure it is.




Even Sebelius would have a hard time winning a US Senate seat.

[Keystone Phil]

Paging Lief...

[Lief 🗽]

Brownback is retiring, so if Sebelius runs, it's certainly possible. Not a slam dunk or anything, and it would require Obama to be popular. If Sebelius doesn't run, I don't know any other Democrats in the state who could win the seat.

Phil, how'd that Obama not cracking 80% in Philly thing work out?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, how'd that Obama not cracking 80% in Philly thing work out?

McCain came closer to breaking 20% than Obama did in winning Kansas. 

[Bacon King]

Sure it is.




Even Sebelius would have a hard time winning a US Senate seat.

[Verily]

I suspect the Democrats have a strong chance of holding on to the governorship. Why? Well, half of the Kansas Democratic Party consists of Republicans cinverted by Sebelius (only a slight exaggeration), so Parkinson definitely has the support for the primary. Sebelius's endorsement alone would probably be enough for a landslide. (AG Paul Morrison is another likely candidate for governor if Parkinson turns it down.)

Secondly, the Kansas GOP is severely divided between radical conservative and moderate branches--the moderate branch having increasingly defected to the Democrats since the radicals took over the party around 2002. The Republicans are likely to nominate another kook for governor and be destroyed.

Although, given the title of this thread, it's probably supposed to be about the Senate despite the section of the forum. Brownback is retiring; the Republican candidate for Senate is very likely to be Rep. Jerry Moran. Sebelius could defeat Moran, but certainly no one else in Kansas could.

[BM]

I made the title under the assumption that Brownback will be the GOP nominee for governor, which seems likely as of now. 

[RBH]

Depends on if Jerry Moran switches parties to face Brownback.

[Dan the Roman]

I suspect the Democrats have a strong chance of holding on to the governorship. Why? Well, half of the Kansas Democratic Party consists of Republicans cinverted by Sebelius (only a slight exaggeration), so Parkinson definitely has the support for the primary. Sebelius's endorsement alone would probably be enough for a landslide. (AG Paul Morrison is another likely candidate for governor if Parkinson turns it down.)

Secondly, the Kansas GOP is severely divided between radical conservative and moderate branches--the moderate branch having increasingly defected to the Democrats since the radicals took over the party around 2002. The Republicans are likely to nominate another kook for governor and be destroyed.

Although, given the title of this thread, it's probably supposed to be about the Senate despite the section of the forum. Brownback is retiring; the Republican candidate for Senate is very likely to be Rep. Jerry Moran. Sebelius could defeat Moran, but certainly no one else in Kansas could.

I would not bet on the Democrat's chances if former AG Paul Morrison was their candidate

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is only Republicans from the 2nd and 3 rd districts that have trouble caouse that is where the split is most profound. The candidates from the 1st and 4th despite being conservative are usually considered to be above the fray politically in the moderate vs conservative divide. I am not sure which district Brownback represented in the 90's but it doesn't matter since he has been a Senator so long and proabably has some good standing.  Moran and Brownback should cruise to victory as long as niether purposly identifies with one side or the other in that divide.

[Meeker]

I suspect the Democrats have a strong chance of holding on to the governorship. Why? Well, half of the Kansas Democratic Party consists of Republicans cinverted by Sebelius (only a slight exaggeration), so Parkinson definitely has the support for the primary. Sebelius's endorsement alone would probably be enough for a landslide. (AG Paul Morrison is another likely candidate for governor if Parkinson turns it down.)

Secondly, the Kansas GOP is severely divided between radical conservative and moderate branches--the moderate branch having increasingly defected to the Democrats since the radicals took over the party around 2002. The Republicans are likely to nominate another kook for governor and be destroyed.

Although, given the title of this thread, it's probably supposed to be about the Senate despite the section of the forum. Brownback is retiring; the Republican candidate for Senate is very likely to be Rep. Jerry Moran. Sebelius could defeat Moran, but certainly no one else in Kansas could.

I would not bet on the Democrat's chances if former AG Paul Morrison was their candidate

Yea... Morrison probably isn't the best candidate at the moment.

[BM]

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No Sebelius coattails, at least not strong ones. The Republicans are looking good in Kansas.

[Lunar]

Brownback isn't going to have more than token opposition.  Anyone [is there anyone] who wants to run for higher office will focus on the open Senate seat and hope Sebelius doesn't run and somehow they can defeat Moran or Tiahrt.

[Lunar]

Brownback is retiring, so if Sebelius runs, it's certainly possible.

uh... that doesn't look right

[Ronnie]

Brownback is safe, fortunately.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

No, Brownback will win.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Senator Brownback should become Governor Brownback. The yellow brick road may not have led to the White House for him but instead it looks like it will run to Topeka.

Are both Tiahrt and Moran running for the Senate? If so I will support Moran since he is less likely to be in the pocket of big business on the immigration issue.  Moran has an B from Americans for Better Immigration while Tiahrt has a D. Recent votes have moved his grade up to a B- but I think this is an election ploy cause it was a D for three years straight. The difference should mean little and in some cases being conservative does not always mean being for tougher laws and enforcement on this issue.

[Lunar]

Are both Tiahrt and Moran running for the Senate?

Well, they're both forming exploratory committees and whatnot if I believe correctly.  I mean, obviously the loser loses their house seat, so if there's a clear front-runner one of them might drop out.  Something tells me Moran has the edge but I don't know why

[Holmes]

Does anyone have a percentage of people who own guns in Kansas? Cause I know the gun owners are less friendly to Sebelius compared to non owners...

And yeah, governor Brownback obviously.

[JSojourner]

Senator Brownback should become Governor Brownback. The yellow brick road may not have led to the White House for him but instead it looks like it will run to Topeka.

And Brownback is hardly a golden oldie.  He could run for the Presidency again.  With one or two gubernatorial terms under his belt, who knows?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Senator Brownback should become Governor Brownback. The yellow brick road may not have led to the White House for him but instead it looks like it will run to Topeka.

And Brownback is hardly a golden oldie.  He could run for the Presidency again.  With one or two gubernatorial terms under his belt, who knows?

Roads can always being extended you know. Though I prefer him not to get close to the White House. His immigration record is pittiful but his reason is a little different from many other amnesty GOPers, like Boustany and Cannon whose motivation is appeasing business interests, With Brownback I think its more of religious belief that we need to help them cause its the right thing to do. This borders on populism and the right thing to do is not always whats best for the country.  Its a bit more respectable reason though.

[tmthforu94]

I was born in Kansas, and lived there for the first few years of Sebelius. She got elected mainly because her Republican opponents sucked. She claimed to be a conservative Democrat, and many beleived her. 

For a Republican to win, s/he needs to get almost all of the Republican party behind him or her, and grab a few independant votes. It isn't too difficult for a Republican to win in Kansas. You don't have to campaign in the western part anyways, since it votes 80%+ to Republicans in every election.
I doubt Sebelius would win the Senate seat, but I could be wrong. Kansan's are very strange when voting.