2012 Prediction

[BushArizona]

Since we learned anything can happen, make a 2012 prediction!

My random guess is:

2012 will be the first election since 1964 where a candidate tops 80% or more in a state, with the exception of Washington DC.

What state? Who knows.

[HockeyDude]

My prediction is that after 4 years of a successful Obama Presidency and our less, errr..... "informed" fellow countrymen see that the world didn't end with Obama's election, there is a MASSIVE swing towards Obama in Appalachia. 

[BushArizona]

My prediction is that after 4 years of a successful Obama Presidency and our less, errr..... "informed" fellow countrymen see that the world didn't end with Obama's election, there is a MASSIVE swing towards Obama in Appalachia. 

Actually I agree.. texaslefty and I were discussing that if Obama is successful.. Obama will get unimaginable swings in states like WV and AR.

If obama picks Hillary as SoS.. it would be the greatest administration ever, and would be happy to join the "obama cult".

[Lamrock]

Obama beats Jindal in hilarious blowout.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Since we learned anything can happen, make a 2012 prediction!

My random guess is:

2012 will be the first election since 1964 where a candidate tops 80% or more in a state, with the exception of Washington DC.

What state? Who knows.

If it happened, it would almost certainly be Obama in Hawaii. That said, it won't happen.

[Daniel Z]

Palin is the early front runner for the GOP nomination, but fades fast in the last few months before Iowa, and only ends up winning Alaska. Obama easily beats Romney in the general.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Sarah Palin, the incumbent Governor of Alaska, who is considered to be the 2012 Republican frontrunner as of November 2008, will not win her parties nomination in 2012. I can picture doing a "Rudy", being perceived as the frontrunner by the national media then faltering come the presidential primaries.

Instead of Governor Palin winning the Republican Nomination in 2012, I am predicting as of November 18, 2008, that former Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999, Newton Leroy Gingrich will win the nomination in 2012, and will select incumbent Governor of Utah, John Huntsman Jr as his running mate. I am also expecting that this comment made on my behalf will be mocked and ridiculed come election day in 2012.

[paul718]

Let me set a hypothetical political climate:  Economy is better, but not fully recovered.  President Obama has had a reasonably event-free term.  His agenda can be labeled as "liberal" but he has been careful to pick certain fights with the Congress, with an eye on re-election.  Bailout-mania has continued, with more federal dollars targeted at industries as well as failing state and municipal governments.  National debt has grown.  Iraq is calm.  Afghanistan is better, looks almost like Iraq circa '08.  Obama has had some missteps regarding foreign affairs, but nothing catastrophic.  Iran and Russia continue to play the same games.  GOP nets a handful of seats in the 2010 elections.     

Romney is the first to announce his candidacy.  Followed by former CO Gov. Bill Owens (surprise entry), some unimportant generic Congressman, then Sen. John Ensign, Sen. John Thune, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich.  There is talk of Sarah Palin entering the race late, similar to Fred Thompson in '08, but she ultimately decides against it.  Pawlenty forms an exploratory committee, but decides to challenge Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat instead.  There is a heavy draft-Jindal movement, but he instead runs for and easily wins re-election as Governor of LA in 2011.  Mike Pence has taken Lugar's Senate seat and declines to run for President. 

Romney wins Iowa, as Thune and Ensign cannot coexist, and New Hampshire.  Everyone drops out early except for Romney and Gingrich.  Romney has run a better campaign than '08, not trying to be someone he's not and it seems to be working.  He and Gingrich trade victories for a while, but Romney overall support is slipping as he still fails to "connect" with voters and seems too wound up.  Gingrich wins the nomination.

There is talk of Obama replacing Biden on the ticket with someone younger.  The two most talked-about names are Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Chet Edwards.  President Obama has a press conference and says Biden will not be replaced.  Sen. Kay Hagan delivers keynote address at DNC in New Orleans, LA.  Among Gingrich's options are Thune, Ensign, Pence, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry, and Rep. Paul Ryan.  Fantasy suggestions include retired Gen. David Petraeus, former SecDef Robert Gates, and former Sec. of State Condi Rice.  None of the 3 ever endorse or campaign for anyone.  Romney isn't in the mix but serves as an economic advisor and is rumored to be interested in heading the Treasury Dep't, as he sees that he will never be President.  Jindal pre-empts any VP talk by expressing his disinterest (it's estimated that he wants to run in '16 and wants to avoid the risk of being a losing runningmate).  Gingrich chooses Daniels and the pick is immediately scrutinized as Daniels served in the Bush Administration, and there is an issue of exactly how effective he was as Governor of IN (see JSojourner's comments here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88434.msg1819041#msg1819041.  Gingrich says Bush-villification worked 4 years ago, but it doesn't work now.  Paul Ryan keynotes RNC in Detroit, MI. 

Gingrich general election campaign is based on government spending, focusing on bailout-mania and programs Obama has pushed through at the behest of Congress.  Obama runs on a "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" message.  Majority of Americans agree that they are.  Obama highlights where he has fought the Dem Congress on certain issues.  Both campaigns are competently run.  Obama and Gingrich both give compelling performances in the debates.  Biden eats Daniels in the VP debate.  Warner is Obama's primary surrogate on the news shows.  Jindal is Gingrich's.

Obama wins, but it's close.  Looks somewhat like Bush-Kerry '04.  Jindal viewed as GOP heir-apparent in 2016.  Warner for the Dems.  GOP makes minor gains in Congress, but Dems still control both houses. 

 

[opebo]

Situation like this:



Which I think will play out like this:

[I left.]

I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

[paul718]

I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

I predict that everything in my prediction will happen, because I know more about everything than you.

[Hashemite]

I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

Best prediction ever.

[BushArizona]

In 2012, the Democratic Party will win Missouri in the electoral college.

Now I know I will be laughed out of the forum for making that prediction, but.. 

[I left.]

In 2012, the Democratic Party will win Missouri in the electoral college.

Now I know I will be laughed out of the forum for making that prediction, but.. 

Seems quite possible.

[Daniel Z]

I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

obviously

[Tender Branson]

Good Obama-term with an improving economy:



Bad Obama-term with a bad economy:

[Prez Duke]

Good Obama-term with an improving economy:



Bad Obama-term with a bad economy:

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

[Tender Branson]

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

[Ronnie]

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

If you think "a lot can happen", nothing should be solid.  I mean, who would have thought of Carter losing Alabama or Arkansas in 1980?

[Prez Duke]

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

LOL

Indiana was 60% Bush 4 years ago. You're right, a lot can happen, but I doubt NV, CO and NM will remain that solid. Things change and the GOP won't be in this bad a shape for the rest of history. These solid majorities never last long.

[Prez Duke]

Anyway, with a good term and improving economy, Obama should see this map for releection.



With a bad term, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive backlash. He has set expectations so high that he'll get crushed if he fails.

[Lief]

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

LOL

Indiana was 60% Bush 4 years ago. You're right, a lot can happen, but I doubt NV, CO and NM will remain that solid. Things change and the GOP won't be in this bad a shape for the rest of history. These solid majorities never last long.

True, but they usually last more than just four years, up to 12 (or 20 for the Dems during and after the Great Depression).

[Rob]

*Not an actual prediction*- I see this as the best Obama can realistically achieve, given a successful term/crappy opponent/whatever:



415-123

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

Rep 51% obama 47%
there are going to be a lot of people rooting for obama to fail any minor mistake he makes will be magnified ten times over by those people, the obama campaign tried to ignore the issue of race during the campaign it will be impossible to ignore during the his administration the republicans  will make thing's like affirmative action illegal immigration an issue.   riding the the Angy white people wave all the way back  to the white house.   the republicans will be back and worse then ever maybe even worse then bush as scary as that sounds.  hispanics will continue to be hard democratic.

I don't try to hard to be too optimistic when it comes to politics

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

If you think "a lot can happen", nothing should be solid.  I mean, who would have thought of Carter losing Alabama or Arkansas in 1980?

You forgot one. No one expected him to lose Massachusetts.