2012 Prediction

[paul718]

*Not an actual prediction*- I see this as the best Obama can realistically achieve, given a successful term/crappy opponent/whatever:



415-123

Right now if I had to put money on what the 2012 result will be, this would probably be it.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Obama/Biden - 59% - 500EV
Romney/Jindal - 39% - 38EV

Good times!

[N.i.K.]

Obama/Biden - 59% - 500EV
Romney/Jindal - 39% - 38EV

Good times!

why not Oklahoma?

[BushArizona]

I would like to announce a serious prediction. Not a troll prediction, like Oklahoma, which was used solely to get people riled up and get attention.

Texas will vote for Obama's re-election in 2012.

[blagohair.com]

[Wall St. Wiz]

Random thoughts:

-The economy stabilizes and rebounds, thought not a sharp recovery.  There is a massive explosion in annual deficits and the debt.
-Obama runs a Clintonesque administration, where the goal is to keep approval ratings high at all costs.  He smostly succeeds, and the country is seen as returning to relative peace and prosperity.
-No terrorist attacks occur on the US homeland
-In 2010 the Democrats reach 60 in the Senate, the GOP picks up a few seats in the house
-The GOP's best and brightest decide to pass on 2012 and focus on 2016.  Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, John Thune, etc won't run.
-Romney wins the GOP nomination, defeating Huckabee
-Obama wins a crushing victory in 2012, 450+EV, 12% PV
-GOP continues to lose seats in the House in Senate in 2012, the conventional wisdom is that the party can no longer compete nationally
-Obama/Democrat fatigue begins to set in.  GOP does suprisingly well in the 2014 elections.
-2016 all the best the GOP have decide to run.  Jindal wins the nomination and selects Paul Ryan as his VP.  Hillary Clinton chooses Evan Bayh as her running mate.   In a re-run of the 2008 election, with Jindal representing change and Hillary the status quo, Jindal defeats Clinton 50.25-48.75 and is elected the 45th President of the United States..

-If there is a terrorist attack here during Obama's term(s), this scenario goes out the window and the GOP returns to power.

[Neinrein]

Obama/Biden vs. Ridge/Pawlenty. With Obama-Biden winning McCain states but Ridge/Pawlenty winning Obama 08 states. Will be a close election because the economy will not be improving any time soon

[WillK]

...
-If there is a terrorist attack here during Obama's term(s), this scenario goes out the window and the GOP returns to power.

Hmmm.  I dont see that as a given.  For Bush an attack sent his approval ratings skyrocketing and helped him win reelection. 

[a Person]

I predict that Barack Obama will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote in Arizona than he will in Colorado.

Also, I predict that Sarah Palin will run for, but not win, the Republican Party Nomination, that Bobby Jindal will not run for the nomination, choosing to wait until '16, and that Mike Huckabee will win the Republican Nomination.

Therefore, I predict that Barack Hussein Obama will win more than 400 Electoral College Votes in the United States Presidential Election of 2012.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Even if Obama is extremely successful, the GOP will find some reason to oppose him. He's
'destroying America's values' or 'weakening our defense' or something like that. Have you ever imagined what it must be like to be a Republican voter. My god, the idiotic issues they vote on sometimes.

[Matt Damon™]

[paul718]

Even if Obama is extremely successful, the GOP will find some reason to oppose him. He's
'destroying America's values' or 'weakening our defense' or something like that. Have you ever imagined what it must be like to be a Republican voter. My god, the idiotic issues they vote on sometimes.

Are you serious?  Do you expect him to run unopposed?  Yes, the GOP will find something to oppose him on, just like every opposition party in every democratic election.

[N.i.K.]

The race started out as any other, but first a national report.

Obama is seen as a good president, but has lost the messiah image he had a few years ago, and is about as weak as Woodrow Wilson in 1916. After a recession in 2008, a sharp recession in 2009, and a weak recession in 2010, the US economy is recovering, but not BOOMING, per se. WE are doing better then the rest of the World, with recessions evolving into depressions in Europe, China, and South America. Iraq is a stable democracy in the Middle East, and the last US troops are to leave in 2011. Afganistan is becoming more stable, but Osama has not been found and is likely dead. India and Pakistan would be at war, if not for there economies and Hillary Clinton's almost weekly visits. Clinton and Biden run Foriegn affairs. The FAR-Left is mad at Obama for making deals with the right. The Republicans won 6 seats in congress in 2010, but lost a seat in the Senate, giving the democrats a fillibuster.

The race begins when Sarah Palin announces her candidacy in November 2010.
Mike Rounds makes a surprise entry in January 2011.
Mitt Romney announces his candidacy in February.
Tim Pawlenty announces he will run in February also.
Charlie Crist announces he will run in July.
Gary Johnson decides to run and carry on Ron Paul's revolution.
Newt Gingrich decides he will seek the nomination in September, disrupting the polls, and taking a chunk of Palin's Base.

Huckabee, Jeb Bush, John Thune, Bobby Jindal, and Jon Huntsman Jr decide not to run.

The most sought after endorsement is Senator John McCain.

Iowa is a win for Palin, forcing Pawlenty to drop out.
New Hampshire, which was not really important this year, was a 30 point win for Romney.
South Carolina voted for Gingrich over Crist, forcing the good-looking gay-rumored politician bay to Florida.
Nevada, do to the split conservatives, produces a narrow win for Johnson.

Romney is able to win California and most of the west, but loses the south to Newt Gingrich.

Palin decides to dropout, and endorses no one. 

The Battle goes all the way to the convention, and all major networks read
SHOWDOWN IN SAN ANTONIO.

Meanwhile, at the DNC in Dallas, there is talk of replacing Biden with Mark Warner, who has made a name for himself in the Senate, or Chet Edwards, the new Governor of Texas after a fierce battle between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison. But the talk does not generate anything, and Biden is kept, and a 2016 primary looms.

The SHOWDOWN is Over after 3 days of madness. John McCain proposes a compromise candidate, and Mike Pence wins. Pence chooses Huntsman as his running mate.

The election is considered close, but Obama manages to pull of a 4 point win in the popular vote, after all votes are counted, the map looks like this:

[yoman82]

Missouri, but no Ohio? Decent scenario otherwise, but I can't really picture ever nominating a compromise candidate,

[GMantis]

More importantly, Missouri, but not Colorado?

[Matt Damon™]

lol you people think he'll be successful

[GMantis]

lol you people think he'll be successful

Why are you so convinced that he'll be a failure?

[Matt Damon™]

Unexperienced, unworkable leftist ideas, his attempting to play the populist/social center when people are backlashing against bush's social populism, his attempt to govern for 12% of the US population and screwing over/ignoring the other 88%, etc.

[Holmes]

No, because you supported the other guy.

[Applezz]

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Pawlenty
(Obama with low approval ratings)



Before the economic crash in October: McCain was consistently winning polls in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, and North Carolina.

[N.i.K.]

More importantly, Missouri, but not Colorado?

I think the only reason Obama really did such a good job there was the convention, and I predict he will lose it narrowly, with it not being called for days.

Missouri, but no Ohio? Decent scenario otherwise, but I can't really picture ever nominating a compromise candidate,

I see it possible, 2012 seems to be neck and neck to me. and Oho will be won by a republican by at LEAST 1.2 percent.

[a Person]

Obama vs Huckabee
Morning of Election Day:


Turns out like this:

[Sam Spade]

Vander Blubb makes some quite good points.  Which is the reason why the only answers as to who will be Pres come 2013 are Pres. Obama, Pres. Palin or Pres. Biden, should something awful happen to O.

[Jacobtm]

South Carolina will be almost as winnable for Obama as Georgia.

Obama % of the vote in McCain states, from highest:

MO: 49.25
MT: 47.17
GA: 46.90
AZ: 44.91
SC: 44.90

At various points throughout the campaign, there were suggestions that Obama might win North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska (before Palin), West Virginia, and of course, MO, MT, GA and AZ.

While many thought that an Obama win in North Dakota was just Democratic day-dreaming, most would've probably agreed that Obama would win North Dakota long before South Carolina

But the fact is that while Obama and Democrats as a whole dedicated practically no resources to South Carolina, it turned out to be the fifth closest state that they lost. If there had been an important Senate race there, and the Obama campaign had dedicated more money to voter-registration, ads and GOTV, the results in S.C. could easily be brought to approximate those in Georgia.

So if Obama has a chance to win Georgia in '12, then there's no reason that South Carolina couldn't be right behind.

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

Even if Obama is extremely successful, the GOP will find some reason to oppose him. He's
'destroying America's values' or 'weakening our defense' or something like that. Have you ever imagined what it must be like to be a Republican voter. My god, the idiotic issues they vote on sometimes.

^^^^^ I totally agree with that, although its not just republicans who vote on Idiotic issues. They will find some reason to hate him like affirmative action. remember back in 1990's when the cool thing was to hate Bill Clinton, looking back he looks pretty damm good compared to Bush.